Obviously, the real estate markets in the United States and Japan have experienced the accumulation and bursting of bubbles. So what is the future of China's real estate market?
This is the historical house price trend chart of four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The trend is basically the same, but the growth rate is slightly different. Now, the author makes a technical analysis of China's housing prices by using the classic Five Waves Theory and combining the historical trend of housing prices in the United States and Japan.
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The standard five-wave structure was adjusted twice in 2008- 10 and1-13, during which three waves rose mainly, with strong explosive force, short period and fast rising speed. Yes, with the recent introduction of a series of national control policies, house prices will peak at 20 17. Of course, this is only the author's own opinion, and you don't have to be overly alarmed if you hold a lot of real estate.
The stock market is a barometer of the real economy, which fully embodies the meaning of "expectation". Ordinary people not only need to buy and sell real estate, but also invest and cash out according to real-time prices. However, don't forget that the bosses of listed companies have been in contact with the capital market for many years, making an expectation and grasping an advance payment. Therefore, it is not ruled out that listed companies are not optimistic about the performance of the property market at the end of the year, which is probably the case.
Of course, there are no same fingerprints in the world, and the purpose of listed companies getting together to sell houses will be different. Very simply, listed companies with hats turn losses into profits by selling real estate in order to take off the ST hat and avoid the punishment of suspension of listing. For example, the sensational St. Tong Ning sold two school districts and took off his hat; The more complicated reason is to whitewash the performance at the end of the year and create momentum for the follow-up concept speculation. For example, Liugong Co., Ltd. sold two sets of idle assets and cashed in 6,654.38+0.5 million, and obtained a net income of about 3,654.38+0.38 million, accounting for 65,438+0.4.73% of the audited net profit in 2065,438+0.5. In this speculative capital market, we can only do the performance first, and then do the latter.
No matter what the motivation is, it is very likely that the capitalist with a keen sense of smell will notice that the house price is about to build a big roof.