Daglio found that in some countries, deleveraging will cause huge economic losses, social upheaval and even war, while in other countries, through orderly adjustment, the economy can be restored to the balance of production and consumption. Good deleveraging can balance the relationship among debt write-down, austerity policy, wealth transfer and debt monetization. ?
20 16 China begins a new round of deleveraging. Since 20 18, deleveraging has entered a new stage. In May, the debt crisis of Du Nan Group, a large private enterprise in Zhejiang Province, pushed this round of corporate credit debt default to a new climax. ?
According to wind's statistics, since 20 18, there have been 20 bonds * * * in the market, of which 6 are new default subjects, all of which are listed companies or major shareholders of listed companies. Among the new defaulting subjects, except ST Zhongan State-owned Holdings 4. 13%, the rest are private equity funds. ?
Once listed companies start to default, it also means that the impact of financial deleveraging and shrinking financing channels on corporate capital chain has begun to invade the aorta of the real economy. ?
Interestingly, the private sector has been accelerating "deleveraging", and the overall average debt ratio of private industrial enterprises has dropped from 62% in 2004 to 52% in 20 17. In recent years, the output value and profits contributed by private industrial enterprises account for nearly 40% of all industrial enterprises, and the liabilities of these enterprises only account for 20% of the total liabilities of all industrial enterprises. ?
In 20 17 years, the debt of state-owned departments still increased at a double-digit rate, especially local state-owned enterprises. The reason is related to the goal of "maintaining growth". ?
According to the economic performance of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises nationwide from 20 18 to 1-3 released by the Ministry of Finance at the end of April this year, at the end of March, the total assets of state-owned enterprises were 164 trillion yuan and the total liabilities were 106.6 trillion yuan. According to calculations, the debt ratio of state-owned enterprises was close to 65% at the end of March. Although this figure is lower than the figure of 2065438+65.6% at the end of June 2007, it is still higher than the average level of domestic enterprises. For example, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of March, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.4%. The debt ratio difference between the two is more than 8 percentage points. ?
How should state-owned enterprises deleverage? The answer is actually very direct and the market is very clear. But the fact is that there are very few zombie enterprises that have withdrawn from the market, and the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap has also progressed slowly. It is a basic fact that resources are still highly concentrated in state-owned enterprises. ?
Another "debt" disaster area is in the local financing platform. If the construction is put in a place where the population is flowing out and the industry is dying, the infrastructure will eventually fail to play its role, and it will indeed form a serious financial burden. On the other hand, China plans to increase the urbanization rate to 60% by 2020 and further increase it to 70% by 2030. At present, local governments bear most of the infrastructure expenditure, and projects led by the central government only account for 10% of infrastructure investment. ?
Moody's report pointed out that from 20 12 to 20 16, the average annual growth rate of project expenditure led by the central government was 5.4%, while the average annual growth rate of project expenditure led by the local government reached 20.6%. So far, local governments still need to rely on state-owned enterprises to fill the funding gap caused by the continuous growth of capital expenditure demand, because the urbanization process is accompanied by the upgrading of infrastructure, and local governments still need to rely on state-owned enterprises or platform companies for financing. ?
In this round of PPP project cleanup, third-and fourth-tier cities have become the hardest hit areas. ?
Xu Zhong, director of the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China, bluntly said that if the business environment is not changed and other factor markets are not reformed, it is only a slogan to shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development. ?
De-leverage has entered a new stage. The best picture is that China can not only restore the economy to a balanced state, but also promote the sustained growth of productive forces through "harmonious de-leverage" and realize a "better life". The proposal of "structural deleveraging" makes the whole path of deleveraging clearer, but the corresponding supporting reforms are absent. Without further deepening reform, private capital is likely to shrink further in the future, and economic vitality will be eclipsed.
Content source: Phoenix Net