(Original title: If Trump is elected president, will Burns become the most powerful vice president in the United States? )

20 16 On July 20th, local time in Cleveland, USA, on the third day of the National Congress of the Communist Party of China, presidential candidate Donald Trump and vice presidential candidate Mike Pence attended the "Trump Meeting with Friends and Family" with their families. Vision china diagram

On July 15, Trump officially chose Mike Pence, the current governor of Indiana, as his campaign deputy. Since Trump has no previous experience in public management, his choice of deputy may reflect many of his future platform axes. It is particularly noteworthy that Trump also invited Ms. Kellyanne Conway, Burns' strategic adviser, as his important adviser, which is also an effective way to create a United atmosphere.

General commentators can see that Trump chose Burns mainly to dispel the concerns of a large number of traditional political conservative voters about Trump's lack of political experience and lack of firm support for some established conservative ideas.

One of the great advantages of Burns is that he has been in Congress for more than 10 years. He has been among the leaders of Congress and the party. His experience in Washington and Congress is very rich, which is really very important for Trump.

According to Professor Jeffrey Green of the Department of Political Science of the University of Pennsylvania, if Trump is really elected, the vice president will undertake a lot of domestic and foreign affairs, and Trump may just play a symbolic role of detachment and alienation. If this road is really taken in the future, it is undoubtedly more meaningful to choose Burns as the deputy.

In addition, Burns is known for his conservative stance. He once led the largest tax cut in Indiana's history and completely abolished the state's inheritance tax. His position on a series of social issues is also conservative and controversial. When Burns served in Congress, he also publicly criticized the conservative positions of some members of Congress and their political parties. This is in sharp contrast with Trump (see author:/newsdetail _ forward _1455321), and some people even worry that Burns' overly conservative stance on social issues may offend some independent middle voters in the general election of 1 1.

Trump chose Burns, and Ryan was the happiest.

Of course, in order to fully understand the significance of Trump's choice of Burns, we must also see the factors that Trump chose Ryan, the Speaker of the House of Representatives behind Burns.

After Trump publicly announced Burns as his campaign deputy, Ryan praised that he couldn't think of a better choice than Burns. Ryan told the American media directly that he had a very good personal relationship with Burns and spoke highly of Burns. Former Speaker Boehner also publicly praised Burns as a very good choice.

In 2007, when Ryan and George W. Bush's fiscal policies clashed fiercely, Burns was one of several Republicans who firmly supported Ryan. According to former Speaker Boehner, Burns also made great contributions to the party's struggle to regain the majority of the House of Representatives in 20 10. Generally speaking, we can find that Burns is a figure on the Bona-Ryan route (refer to the author:/newsdetail _ forward _1396303), so Ryan will praise Burns' perseverance, adherence to conservative principles, the style of the late President Reagan, and his courage to pursue faith, which will bring real "changes" to Washington.

On July 18-2 1 Sunday, Ryan praised Burns many times in his public speech at Cleveland * * * and the party's national congress. At that time, the author listened carefully to some words of Ryan. In my opinion, Ryan's subtext is that Burns is very important. Trump, if you dare to outdo Burns, I don't think you will be elected president.

Many political analysts in the United States clearly see that Ryan's speech at * * * and the party's national congress is very clever. Ryan did announce his support for Trump's representative and the party's presidential campaign, but he did not positively praise Trump's quality. Even Trump's name is not mentioned too much, and when he mentions Trump, he must also mention Burns.

Ryan bluntly said that his "better way" policy agenda can only be adopted during Trump's presidency. And if Hillary becomes president-elect, she will never agree to these agendas, even if the Republican Party still occupies the advantages of both houses of Congress, it will not help (besides, this year's Senate re-election and party war are worrying).

Given that Trump's platform is still empty, we can even think that Ryan's card is to use Trump's hand to promote his favorite specific policies, and to achieve this picture, Burns will naturally be an extremely important part. Burns and Ryan have a high degree of agreement on core issues such as balancing the federal budget, gradually paying off debts, and cutting government spending more deeply.

Although conservative, he is not "single-minded"

Burns's position is generally conservative, but there are also many deeds of co-production and even cooperation with the Obama administration. For example, Burns himself has clearly expressed his support for TPP, which is obviously different from Trump and Sanders. For another example, in June of 20 15, 1, Burns publicly announced that he had reached an agreement with the Obama administration to extend the "Medicaid" insurance for the poor, which was co-operated by the federal government and the state government, to 350,000 low-income residents.

This matter seems strange to many commentators, because this position and attitude of cooperating with Obama's medical insurance plan is really inconsistent with Burns' conservative style and image. Burns tried to persuade * * * and the state legislature led by the party to support his plan, and the state legislature did the same, because they thought that some provisions proposed in Burns' plan, such as the expenses incurred by excessive use of emergency rooms, needed to be paid by the federal government and the state government, and probably Obama would never agree.

However, in the end, Obama accepted Burns' plan (with only some changes). As a result, Indiana became the 28th state to accept the Medicaid insurance expansion plan for the poor in cooperation with the state government. It is said that most people are satisfied with the result.

Burns's method is very similar to Ryan's. They all have pan-political conservative positions, but they are willing to sit down and negotiate with the Democratic president at an appropriate time, and at the same time they will certainly win some demands of their own, which is by no means complete surrender. Not all * * * and the party's supporters are satisfied with the final result, but at least * * * and the party's legislature and voters have little opinion on the whole and all think it is acceptable (see the author

Professor Robert Shapiro from the Department of Political Science of Columbia University also told me that in his view, choosing Burns as a deputy would help strengthen Trump's appeal to some conservative camp forces. This will strengthen the centripetal force between * * * and the party establishment and Trump, and may bring more campaign donations to Trump, who needs to strengthen in attracting political donations at present.

Professor Jeffrey Green told me that there are still quite different views between Trump and the establishment party, and a large number of important leaders, such as members of the Bush family and Romney, did not attend the national congress of Trump and the party. However, most * * * and party factions have indeed begun to gradually revolve around Trump, and the selection of Burns should help this process.

Who do Cruz, Trump and Burns support?

Many people have seen that in this * * * and the party's primary election, Burns publicly announced his support for * * * and the ultra-conservative party, Senator Cruz from Texas. However, we should also see that when Burns announced his support for Cruz, his attitude was very noncommittal and half-hearted. He called on Indiana primary voters to "vote for the person you like".

Moreover, at that time, Lu Biao and other establishment factions and partisans had withdrawn from the election campaign, and the primary election in Indiana was just around the corner. Only Cruz has a chance to curb Trump's nomination and March into the party congress in July with an overwhelming advantage. Therefore, at that time, Burns was not so much supporting Cruz as having great doubts about Trump, which was not far from the attitude of Ryan and others at that time.

That is, in early May, Ryan stood up and publicly stated that he was not ready to "support Trump". It was not until Trump locked in the nomination of the party candidate for nearly a month that Ryan officially announced his support. Therefore, it does not mean that Burns once expressed his support for Cruz, an extremist of our party. What is the essential difference between him and Ryan?

Interestingly, some ultra-conservative leaders, such as Richard Viguerie, have long been chanting the slogan of Cruz-Trump unity. Although Cruz was obviously uncooperative and disapproved of Trump at the National Congress of the Communist Party of China in July, Trump also made it clear afterwards that he would not accept any support from Cruz at all, and said that if Cruz insisted on continuing to run for the presidency, Trump would try his best to stop it. However, if we analyze it carefully, we can see that Burns once announced his support for Cruz, but now he has become Trump's deputy. These two facts are very difficult for ultra-conservatives who call for special solidarity.

Ryan's worry: Will Trump "rebel"?

Burns was preparing for the governor's re-election. After Trump announced that he was the party's vice presidential nominee, he quickly announced his withdrawal from the Indiana governor's election, because according to Indiana law, one person cannot run for state and federal positions at the same time. Therefore, if the Trump election finally loses, Burns will face the embarrassing situation that there is no official to do after the expiration of the future governor's term, so it is also risky for Burns to join the Trump campaign.

At the same time, Burns has publicly promised that he will not conduct any campaign activities in a negative way. This is obviously not Trump's style, but how to run in between Burns and Trump's campaign strategies will also be a very interesting point of view.

For Ryan, the uncertainty mainly lies in: 1, whether Trump can fully respect and consider Burns-Ryan's position, views and propositions in the next election campaign, if he is lucky enough to become president, and after more than half of his four-year presidency; 2. It is undeniable that there is an extreme conservative tendency in the * * * and the party, and the moderate establishment and the inner-party forces are generally decreasing rather than increasing. Even Ryan is facing the challenge of extreme conservatism in his state's congressional district, so Ryan should not only be alert to Trump's nonsense and Cruz's counterattack, but also be alert to the possibility of further merger between Trump and the grassroots tea party at least in theory. After all, long before the Trump issue troubled the * * * and the party leadership, the * * * and the party were already in the civil war between their respective relatively moderate and ultra-conservative parties.

In addition, on July 22nd, Hillary Clinton officially chose Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia as the vice presidential candidate.

Kane's experience is similar to that of Burns. Both of them have been governors and served in the National Assembly, and both of them belong to the kind of people who are slowly and steadily in the typhoon and close to their own party, the Washington establishment. Therefore, some Sanders supporters are greatly dissatisfied and angry, and think that choosing Kane is equivalent to publicly saying that Hillary will yield to Wall Street forces.

Although choosing Kane may indeed make it difficult for Hillary to try to attract and unite more Sanders supporters, we should also see that Trump chose Burns and Hillary chose Kane, all in order to stabilize the cards and strive for better integration with the mainstream of the party. There are many hot spots in this year's general election, and the candidates have the same scenery and different styles. But in the end, competition is not only the competition of individual candidates, but also the competition of bipartisan politics.