Analysts said that the main influencing factor of the plunge of oil price to negative value is that the COVID-19 epidemic has affected transportation and infrastructure, and the oil industry is highly dependent on transportation and infrastructure, and the inventory factor pushed down the oil price in the second round. In addition, before the COVID-19 outbreak, the economic growth rate declined, and the growth rate of oil demand declined, which aggravated the oil market problems, accelerated the decline of oil prices, and aggravated the oil price shock.
The price of crude oil has dropped, but the operating cost is not low.
According to the usual thinking, the price of crude oil falls, and the price of raw materials purchased by enterprises that produce and process downstream products falls. Why is the pressure great and the enterprise closed down?
Many enterprises say that the relationship between crude oil price and petroleum product price is not linear. From crude oil to petroleum products, many links and cooperation between upstream and downstream industrial chains are needed. Although the price of crude oil is low, the transportation cost increases, the supply of similar products increases, and the market demand for petrochemical products decreases, which means that the production cost and competitive pressure of petrochemical enterprises increase, and the overall operating pressure of the petroleum industry chain is great. Therefore, in the era of low oil prices, petrochemical enterprises are not living better, but living more sadly. The head of a multinational chemical giant told reporters.
IEA also pointed out that due to the epidemic, the operating cost of the oil supply chain has increased, and upstream and downstream enterprises in the oil refining, warehousing, processing and other industrial chains may be in trouble.
After the international crude oil price fell this year, not only did the oil giants shout the slogan of living a tight life, but they also drastically reduced their asset expenditures. Among them, international oil companies composed of ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Total, Chevron, Eni and Equinor announced that their capital support will be reduced by 265,438+0% in 2020, and North American Petroleum.
Oil giants have stopped stock repurchase and used derivatives business in financial markets to resist oil price risks. For example, some independent oil companies in the United States announced the appreciation of oil production through hedging.
The insiders believe that oil companies can easily resist changes in oil prices as long as they strengthen products and services in the middle and lower reaches that are weakly correlated with crude oil prices and less affected by crude oil prices. Lin, Dean of China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, once commented on three barrels of domestic oil. Long-term low oil prices have a great impact on PetroChina and CNOOC, but Sinopec is better because the middle and lower reaches of the industry are relatively large.