After the Bush administration came to power, it disdained the framework agreement signed by the Clinton administration and North Korea, and took a tough attitude in continuing negotiations with Kim Jong Il's regime. When Secretary Powell publicly proposed to restart the negotiation process on the basis of the previous administration, Bush personally rejected his proposal. The two countries have not made active contacts on the nuclear issue, and other events related to the nuclear issue have been left to their own devices.
Therefore, in the September 1 1 attack, Bush called North Korea an axis of evil along with Iran and Iraq, and clearly pointed out that the United States would try to disarm their weapons of mass destruction (WMD). People must remember that Bush put forward the dual principles of positive measures to prevent nuclear proliferation and regime change in his national security strategy speech in September 2002. All axis powers of evil paid close attention to that speech.
In March 2003, the United States put its words into action, attacked Iraq on a large scale and overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime. The initial excuse for the US invasion of Iraq was to deprive the country of the opportunity to develop weapons of mass destruction. If North Korea had been lucky before, Washington's military action against Iraq in March 2003 completely dispelled its idea. Since the struggle for survival is the original motive force of all governments, Kim Jong Il also regards his nuclear weapons as the fundamental guarantee to avoid facing the same fate as Saddam Hussein. As the world discovered after the American invasion, Iraq's nuclear weapons development program was destroyed under the supervision of the United Nations in the first half of 1990s, and it is impossible to recover.
People must remember the enthusiasm of the United States for the Proliferation Security Initiative. PSI was put forward by President Bush in May 2003. It includes signing international agreements and establishing partnerships to allow the United States and its allies to search planes and ships carrying suspicious cargo and intercept illegal weapons or missile technology. Initially, only Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom joined the initiative. According to the statement issued by the Bush administration on September 4, 2003, the initiative emphasizes the need to take active measures to combat the proliferation threat of weapons of mass destruction. Although the Proliferation Security Initiative is consistent with the United Nations 1992 statement (declaring that the proliferation of all weapons of mass destruction will pose a threat to the security of the international community), this initiative has not been taken seriously by this international organization. At the same time, it is also in line with the spirit of the recent statement issued by G8 and EU (calling for cooperation between Qi and New Zealand to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction).
But it should be pointed out that there are also many people who criticize PSI. China, Canada, Brazil, Russia, South Korea, India and Pakistan are worried that the United States is trying to use PSI as a tool to consolidate its technological superiority in producing advanced nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and ballistic missiles, and to control global transportation routes.
In June, in a speech at the Colorado Air Force Academy, Bush listed North Korea as one of the specific targets of PSI. Bush said that because this threat is global, we must cooperate with the international community to prevent nuclear proliferation. We are working hard to strengthen the international non-proliferation institutions. We are working with regional powers and international partners to jointly deal with the threats of North Korea and Iran. We cooperate with other members of the 14 Proliferation Security Initiative to intercept weapons of mass destruction, their components and means of delivery, such as missiles, at sea, on land and in the air. Our country will never allow weapons of mass destruction to fall into the hands of thieves. We will lead the world to continue to put pressure on the enemy.
In this case, North Korea sees no reason to abandon its nuclear development plan. The six-party talks held in Beijing have not yielded fruitful results. The frequently mentioned explanation is that North Korea is waiting for the result of the US presidential election. This explanation makes sense. It is widely expected that if Kerry is elected, he will obviously be more interested in negotiating with North Korea on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula than Bush.
Regardless of the personality and personal preferences of Bush or Kerry, this bet is really high for North Korea. Despite the brutality of Kim Jong Il's regime, none of North Korea's neighbors supports the reckless idea of changing the regime through military invasion. Therefore, North Korea will wait and see whether Kerry will negotiate with allies and enemies to resolve regional and international conflicts, as he now says, or he will change his course once he takes office. After all, Bush also made many verbal promises during the campaign.
Even with Kerry's assurance, it is impossible for North Korea to completely abandon its nuclear development program. It is often said that North Korea may follow Libya's footsteps and abandon its nuclear development program. But the situation in North Korea and Libya is different. When Gaddafi decided to abolish the nuclear program, North Korea's nuclear level was far ahead of Libya. In addition, Libya has no strong supporters or dialogue countries when negotiating with big countries or the only superpower in the world on the nuclear issue. In addition, Libya is a desert country and an open target of a possible pre-emptive attack by the United States. This is one of the main factors that prompted Gaddafi to abandon his nuclear development plan. On the contrary, North Korea can do great harm to America's ally, South Korea or Japan. Moreover, there are more than 30,000 American troops stationed on the North Korean border, and the security of these troops was also considered before the Bush administration launched a preemptive attack.
In addition, the United States has learned a painful lesson from Iraq: it may be easy to conquer a country militarily; But managing it peacefully is an arduous task, even for the only superpower in the world. However, North Korea is not interested in these historical lessons. It must fight for its survival. In the final analysis, its survival can only be guaranteed by acquiring nuclear weapons.