There is no doubt that the future of 5G is crucial to the automobile industry, but is 5G really that important?
The fact is that the role of 5G in the field of autonomous driving is overestimated.
First of all, 5G will definitely have a lot of investment. This is a * * * knowledge, so how much does it cost? At present, it mainly depends on the construction and later operating costs.
In terms of construction cost, referring to the data of China Research Network, the construction cost of a base station in 5G is about three times that of 4G (also based on the existing 4G base station upgrade), while the coverage area of 5G base stations is much smaller than that of 4G base stations, and the number of base stations required for 5G construction is at least three times that of 4G. In other words, the construction cost of a 5G base station is about 10 times that of 4G, which does not include the corresponding power facilities.
According to the latest China 5G Economic Report in 2020, the total investment of domestic 5G networks in 2020-2025 is 0.9 ~/kloc-0.5 trillion yuan. In the same period, according to the State Grid, the "14th Five-Year Plan" will focus on areas such as UHV, charging piles and digital new infrastructure, and the related investment is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan.
Operating cost: At present, the biggest operating cost of a 5G base station lies in the electricity bill. According to the official statistics of operators, the maximum power consumption of a 5G base station is about 2.5-4 times that of 4G. When the number of 5G is 3-4 times that of 4G, the power consumption of the base station will be more than 10 times that of 4G. According to China Research Network? After the completion of the construction of the 5G base station, China Mobile will probably spend about 294 billion yuan only by paying the electricity bill, while China Mobile will make a profit of 2017438+000 billion yuan. Combined with the 6 trillion investment of State Grid, it can also explain the huge energy consumption of 5G base stations.
All the above data are based on the current technical conditions. With the increase of quantity and the progress of technology, it is believed that the construction cost and power consumption of base stations will be further reduced, but the fact that the overall construction cost of 5G is one order of magnitude lower than the operating cost of 4G will not change much.
Such a large investment depends not only on the automobile industry, but also on what 5G can bring from the perspective of the whole society.
What changes will 5G bring? The technical advantage determines that it will bring subversive changes in a large number of application scenarios, and the peak rate reaches the standard of Gbit/s, which can meet the transmission of big data such as high-definition video and virtual reality. The air interface delay level is about 1ms, which meets real-time applications such as automatic driving and telemedicine. Ultra-large network capacity can provide the connection ability of hundreds of billions of devices to meet the communication of the Internet of Things; The spectrum efficiency is 10 times higher than that of LTE, and the user experience rate reaches 100 Mbit/s, with continuous wide-area coverage and high mobility. ...
Bottom line: Higher speed, lower latency, wider bandwidth and more stability.
Especially for the automotive industry, 5G is related to the future of autonomous driving and smart cities.
The technical route of self-driving vehicle-road coordination in China is the best application scenario of 5G. The low delay and stability of 5G-V2x enable vehicles to communicate with external real-time information, and realize real-time control and traffic information in the cloud. 5G has also greatly promoted the Internet of Vehicles and the intelligent cockpit. Cloud convergence, VR, AR, HUD and other technologies can be fully applied, in-car entertainment will be more abundant, and the car will become an intelligent mobile space.
In the field of smart cities, 5G will promote the development of e-government, intelligent transportation and smart energy. Finally, build the city brain and build a smart city.
The imagination of 5G is huge, which will bring great changes to almost all industries and give birth to new formats. But this is not only due to the consideration of the technical and economic development of a certain industry (such as automobiles), but also the choice of national macro-strategy.
1, National Strategy in the Internet of Things Era
In the era of Internet of Everything, any product is a smart terminal, and it is also the economic growth point of all countries in the future. As an information superhighway, 5G is of great strategic significance to the country:
1)? If you master the information channel, you can master the initiative of the whole era, involving information security, data security and national security. Therefore, countries attach so much importance to 5 G, and the United States sanctions Huawei because of this.
2)? The center of future social and economic development is in the direction of intelligence, and the focus of new infrastructure is also around intelligence. Investing in 5G means investing in the future, which is the only means that the country can take (consumption and export are no longer effective).
As far as China is concerned, 5G is an important cornerstone of China internet plus, the Belt and Road Initiative and new infrastructure. It is also the dependence of China's transformation from a big country in agriculture and manufacturing to a big country in manufacturing and technology. It is one of the graspers to realize the rise of a great power, and it is also the way that China is best at.
2. Thinking inertia before infrastructure investment
Since the reform and opening up, the troika of investment, export and consumption has been the source of economic growth in China. Through infrastructure investment, we will first promote the economic growth of infrastructure-related industries, then improve the living environment and business environment, and promote consumption and export.
Therefore, advanced infrastructure investment is a sharp weapon to stimulate economic growth. The slogan "To get rich, build roads first" has been echoing to this day, and investment has proved to be an effective means and the easiest way for the government to control.
High-speed rail and high-speed rail are both examples of advanced infrastructure investment: the Yangtze River Delta implemented high-speed rail around 20 10. At that time, the bullet train was implemented for about three years, and the speed of high-speed rail only increased from 200-250 to 300-350, with the same stop time, but the time was not much faster, but the ticket price nearly doubled.
There is a strong criticism that bullet trains can meet the travel needs at that time, and increasing the speed is tantamount to wasting resources, or that the promotion of bullet trains by high-speed trains is far less than that of green leather cars by bullet trains. But two years later, under the tide of consumption upgrading, consumers are accustomed to the improvement of the overall service brought by high-speed rail, and now high-speed rail has become the first choice for travel.
The same example is the expressway. In the past, many places built expressways next to provincial roads. 10 years ago, there were no cars running in many provincial highways, and no one was interested in expressways, which also attracted criticism. However, with the development of economy, the number of private cars has increased dramatically and e-commerce logistics has developed rapidly. Roads are not wasted, but they are far from enough.
As an "information superhighway", there are successful cases in front of the new 5G infrastructure, which can also be said to be the inertia of thinking.
3. Inevitable choice in the era of Internet of Everything
In the past, the highway and railway construction was successful, and the early investment was successful. Now that we are about to enter the era of Internet of Everything, it is also an inevitable choice to invest in 5G "network" in advance. China's urbanization process is still accelerating. The e-commerce logistics industry and economic globalization have intensified the travel demand, and it is difficult to have excess road infrastructure.
Therefore, China's advanced infrastructure is in the stage of China's reform, opening up and urbanization, and it has achieved great success with the tide of Internet and globalization under favorable internal and external environment.
5G is an inevitable choice, but on the other hand, the present environment has changed with the road construction era: the world economic conflict has intensified, globalization has been challenged, the urbanization process in China is coming to an end, the number of 4G users in China's communication industry has exceeded 1 100 million after years of development, the market has been consumed in advance, and the foundation of advanced infrastructure is very different from before.
Doing 5G is an inevitable choice, but the pace depends on the micro-demand, and the current market demand cannot support the investment of 5G.
1. Does the communication market need 5G?
1G->； 4G solves the needs of users to make phone calls, send text messages, surf the Internet and surf the Internet smoothly at any time. 4G is more about improving the performance of 3G, but 3G is missing, so 4G fills the gap of 3G, and obtains the second generation market through 1 generation technology, which has achieved great success and become the mainstream of the market.
This is a bit like a windows system. The next generation succeeded, and 1 generation replaced the second generation market.
For 4G, 5G mostly improves performance, unlike voice->; SMS-> Surfing the Internet is a great functional breakthrough. For users, 4G has satisfied most of the scene applications now, so it is difficult for 5G to have too many active markets in a short time, no matter from the technical laws or the needs of its own communication market.
2.？ Is the market demand at the B end sufficient?
User demand is not enough to support the huge investment of 5G and the corresponding operating costs, so it depends on the demand of B-side.
The domestic population is fixed, but the number of devices that can be networked is huge, which is still the top priority of the future 5G market and will return to the development of various industries at the B end mentioned above.
Take the automobile industry as an example. In the future, as a mobile intelligent space, the car will be integrated into the whole social ecology. It is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition, to form this industrial ecology 5G with automatic driving, intelligent cockpit and enjoyment.
In other words: the future of the automobile industry is inseparable from 5G, and only 5G is not enough.
For example, 5G has promoted the development of autonomous driving. There are some preconditions here, that is, other technologies related to autonomous driving, such as sensors, planning algorithms, AI, chips, cloud computing and so on. , have reached the same level, and are equipped with automatic driving, such as intelligent transportation system, high-precision map, high-precision positioning and so on. Legal issues related to autonomous driving, ethical issues of machine driving, and the development of the car itself. Without any automatic driving, it is impossible here.
5G can bring many things to the automobile industry, but more importantly, 5G needs the development of the automobile industry to carry its huge investment and operating costs. Therefore, the development of 5G depends on the progress of the whole industry, and now the reforms of all walks of life have entered the deep water area.
Other industries are also facing the demand of digital transformation, which also needs 5 G, but digital transformation is more about the change of the industry itself, and then combined with digitalization. It is not that with 5G, with intelligent and networked means, the industry itself has changed lanes. This is the difference between this digital revolution and the previous digital revolution.
This digital revolution is based on the industrial Internet and will be integrated with various industries. It is very different from the previous consumer Internet, that is, the historical burden is very heavy, which is also a problem faced by 5 G. To innovate, we must not only deal with future problems, but also deal with problems left over from history. The current industrial internet is just a show, which plays the role of concept propaganda. Many applications of 4G are enough, and 5G is a gimmick.
Therefore, from the perspective of B-end demand, the in-depth application of 5G will still face the problems of the industry itself at this stage.
September 15 Former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei's speech at the seminar of the 50-member Economic Forum reminded the internal circulation blockage point, pointing out that the current infrastructure is excessively advanced, the private Internet platform is monopolized, and there is no scene of 100 billion 5G investment. The input rhythm of 5G deserves serious consideration.
If the future intelligent society is regarded as a person, then the development of artificial intelligence and cloud can be regarded as brain, while 5G can be regarded as nerve or blood vessel, responsible for transmitting information and nutrients, and all walks of life are trunk and muscle.
Lou Jiwei is talking about the current difficulties faced by 5G development. Nerves and blood vessels are the foundation, which can't make people really strong. The foundation should have corresponding muscle support and corresponding brain to make decisions. Only roads will not bring about the development of logistics.
The development of 5G is an unchangeable national strategy, but it needs to be synchronized with the speed of the whole new infrastructure, with the digitalization process of all walks of life, and with the pace of social development.
Specific to the automotive industry, it is certain that 5G has accelerated the evolution of the automotive industry. The intelligent development direction of the automobile industry and the demand of automatic driving for scene landing are destined to be deeply bound with the automobile field for a long time and will be more and more deeply rooted in people's hearts. Baidu recently opened a robot in Beijing? Taxi service can be said to be the closest service for domestic autonomous driving to ordinary people. The enthusiastic appointment of Beijing residents reflects everyone's strong interest in high-tech and new things, which is also the basis for social changes brought by 5G in the future.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.