However, before she began to walk towards us, we called 1000 times and urged 1000 times. The census data originally expected to be released in early April was finally officially released in the morning of May.

Look at the data first: the national population of * * *141780,000, 72.06 million more than that of1339.72 million in 20 10, an increase of 5.38%; The average annual growth rate is 0.53%, which is 0.04 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of 0.57% in 2000-20 10.

Exceeding 14 1 1 100 million population means that China continues to maintain its position as the world's most populous country, and the Indian population wants to surpass China, and so on.

In addition to the total number of people, the proportion of men and women, the proportion of the elderly population and so on. These data have a far-reaching impact on real estate, stock market and employment.

Population accelerated into the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta.

Let's take a look at this 20 19-2020 provincial population comparison map produced by GF Securities.

From this picture, we can find that the population of Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, the three most economically developed provinces in China, increased by 6.5438+0.08 million, 6.07 million and 4.05 million respectively within one year, and the trend of "peacocks flying southeast" is increasingly obvious.

At present, the population of Guangdong has exceeded 65.438+0.26 billion, far ahead of the second Shandong's 654.38+0.065.438+0.50 billion. At a time when the national population growth rate is obviously slowing down, Guangdong's annual population growth is as high as100000, which is worth considering.

As the frontier of reform and opening up, Guangdong leads the country in market economy and efficiency of civil servants. Guangzhou and Shenzhen, both first-tier cities, are far less difficult to settle down than Beijing and Shanghai.

Good software and hardware environment makes Guangdong the most attractive province. The influx of young people will bring more incremental capital and labor to Guangdong, and Guangdong's economy will be optimistic for a long time.

As for housing prices, we should look at finance in the short term, land in the medium term and population in the long term. With the explosive growth of population, the shortage of land in Guangdong will continue in the future, and house prices may also fluctuate greatly.

In Zhejiang Province, private enterprises are developed, and the e-commerce industry headed by Hangzhou and the small commodity industry headed by Yiwu have absorbed more and more people and produced more and more new formats.

At present, Hangzhou is in the position of "protecting five and looking at four" in the national urban strength, and its momentum is almost equal to that of Guangzhou. Coupled with the geographical environment of mountainous and plain areas in Zhejiang, housing prices in Zhejiang are easy to rise and difficult to fall.

Jiangsu's GDP ranks second in the country, but compared with Guangdong and Zhejiang, the quality of new economy is relatively insufficient and there are more old industries. At present, more industries are undertaking overseas spillovers.

This situation has caused that although the population of Jiangsu is 20 million more than that of Zhejiang, Jiangsu is far less attractive to migrants than that of Zhejiang.

In 20 19, the net inflow population in Hangzhou alone was as high as 554,000, while that in Jiangsu province was193,000.

The lack of new economy has pushed Jiangsu's housing price level further and further by Zhejiang.

Problems faced by Shandong and Tianjin

If Jiangsu goes further north, it will reach Shandong, the second most populous province in China. Although Shandong has a population of over 100 million, it relies heavily on heavy industry and traditional industries. In recent years, Shandong's economy has faced obvious bottlenecks.

The proportion of traditional industries is large, which means that there are fewer high-paying jobs. More and more young people from Shandong go to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong. Although the population of Shandong will increase by 830,000 in 2020, the continuous outflow of young people is likely to lead to negative population growth in this northern province with the largest population in the future.

Another thing worth talking about is Tianjin. As a place with a population of100000, Tianjin's population decreased by as much as1750000 in the past year, which is too large.

Corresponding to the sharp drop in population, Tianjin's GDP will fall out of the top ten cities in China in 2020.

What happened to Tianjin, the second largest city in the north and the largest port city in the north?

The situation in Tianjin is similar to that in Shandong. There are too many local resource-consuming enterprises with weak innovation ability. At present, there are no famous innovative enterprises in China.

In addition, Tianjin is too close to Beijing, environmental protection is strictly investigated, and the siphon phenomenon of high-paying jobs in Beijing is serious.

In addition, the local business environment in Tianjin is not very good (for example, there are too many fraudulent companies such as Quanjian and precious metal trading), so the employment opportunities in Tianjin are shrinking and the population is greatly reduced.

Tianjin has the advantage of getting extra points in the college entrance examination and relaxing the restrictions on settlement, but it is still a more realistic employment opportunity.

The housing price level in Tianjin is relatively high, and it is a question whether the housing price can hold up after the population is greatly reduced. Investing in housing, from the perspective of population mobility, Tianjin is not a good choice.

The Influence of Population Data on Stock Market

In Shandong and Tianjin mentioned above, A shares have obviously lacked star listed companies in recent years. The most famous listed company in these two places may be Wanhua Chemical in Shandong, and the strength of this company's share price depends largely on the price increase!

As for the three northeastern provinces with the worst population outflow, most investors may only know one Changchun Hi-Tech.

Obviously, where the population growth is weak, there are fewer good listed companies. Population mobility, business environment and industrial structure are highly related to the quality of listed companies.

Many years ago, the slogan of the investment circle was "investment can't pass Shanhaiguan", but now it has become "investment can't pass the territory of the Southern Song Dynasty". The flow of population is actually the flow of funds and the flow of investment targets.

In addition to the problem of population mobility, the ratio of men to women is also very worthy of attention and will have a great impact on the stock market.

According to the latest census data, there are 723,339,956 males in the national population, accounting for 5 1.24%. The female population is 688,438,768, accounting for 48.76%. The sex ratio of the total population is 105.07, with 35 million more men than women.

There are more men than women, and tens of millions of bachelors are doomed to the popularity of the single economy. Pet consumption, small household appliances and other industries are worthy of attention.

In addition, the live video industry will also make a lot of money, and most female anchors are single otaku.

China has more men than women, while Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam and other countries have more women than men because of World War II and Vietnam War. If there are companies that operate transnational marriage and love listed in the future, you can pay attention to it.

In terms of per capita age, the average age of China's population is 38.8 years old, while the average age of countries competing with China for manufacturing jobs is 26-29 years old. We are at a disadvantage at this point.

In the current labor market, white-collar workers are facing the "35-year-old employment threshold", and it is more and more difficult for college students to find jobs every year; In the blue-collar industry, construction workers are getting older and older, and young people prefer to send takeout rather than go to the construction site.

After a large number of post-60s construction workers are unable to move, due to the shortage of labor, the future construction labor costs can only be higher and higher.

These construction workers, because of their excessive work intensity, will be riddled with problems in their old age, and the resulting health problems can not be ignored.

After the release of population data today, stocks with "healthy" names such as Kaineng Health, Yihua Health, Xinyue Health and Rongjie Health rose sharply, which actually reflected this problem to some extent.

Population is the core factor of economic development. Under the irreversible trend of decreasing birth population and aging population, more and more industries will become "stock market" and "reduction market", and the competition among enterprises will become more intense. Leading companies in sub-sectors operating around the trend of population aging are expected to become long-term stocks.