Weather forecast belongs to forecasting science. According to the laws of science, forecasting science cannot be completely accurate or always accurate. So is the weather forecast.
Based on the current level of science and technology and our understanding of the whole atmosphere and even the whole climate system, it is determined that our weather forecast cannot be completely accurate. This is determined by the current level of science and technology, including the level of meteorological research, the level of understanding of the whole atmospheric motion law, and the level of technical equipment. It requires a larger supercomputer, a denser observation network, special observation means such as radar and satellites, and of course more international cooperation. The atmosphere is borderless, and it needs the joint efforts of meteorologists all over the world to improve the accuracy of weather forecast.
We have also been working hard to improve the accuracy of weather forecast. According to the requirements of the party and the government and the needs of the broad masses of the people, our slogan is "Do everything possible to improve the accuracy of forecasting", because this is a key, otherwise emergency response and service are out of the question. In this regard, we have also made great efforts. For example, we are improving our numerical weather forecasting model and improving the quality and ability of relevant forecasters. We have taken many measures in these aspects, and believe that our forecast level will be further improved in the future.
The weather forecast seems simple, but it is actually a complex system engineering, involving all aspects and many links, and the development level of each link will directly affect the accuracy of the forecast. With the development of science and technology and the progress of human understanding, the accuracy of weather forecast is constantly improving, but it is impossible to be completely accurate.
Difficulty 1: Humans have not fully grasped the laws of atmospheric motion.
There is a certain uncertainty in every link of atmospheric movement, so it is impossible for every forecast result to be consistent with reality. Improving the accuracy of weather forecast is still a worldwide problem. The atmosphere is chaotic, and even small fluctuations may produce huge turbulence. Just as Lorenz, a professor at MIT, made an image metaphor: a small butterfly flapping its wings over Brazil may trigger a storm in Texas a month later. This is the famous "butterfly effect". It is precisely because of the ever-changing atmosphere that human beings have not fully understood and mastered the laws of atmospheric movement.
Difficulty 2: China's ability of monitoring, forecasting and early warning is relatively weak.
Generally speaking, China's monitoring, forecasting and early warning capabilities are relatively weak. China's meteorological monitoring capacity does not meet the needs of forecasting and service, and some local disastrous weather is often not captured due to insufficient density of monitoring stations, leading to underreporting.
There is no very effective method for the objective forecast of some disastrous weather, and the understanding of the formation mechanism of some important weather and climate events is still very limited, especially the ability of short-term and imminent disastrous weather forecast and early warning is still very weak. Most of our province is located in the East Asian monsoon region, with complex and changeable weather and climate, unique factors affecting the weather, various weather phenomena and disasters, and it is difficult for objective factors to predict comprehensively and accurately. Some sudden meteorological disasters, such as rainstorm, thunder and lightning, strong wind, hail and short-term heavy rainfall, have complex development laws, and our province's monitoring, forecasting and early warning capabilities in these areas are still relatively weak; The interpretation of numerical forecast products and the application ability of various new meteorological data need to be further improved, which restricts the accuracy and refinement of weather forecast to some extent.
Difficulty 3: The quality of forecasters affects the accuracy of weather forecast.
The improvement of forecasting accuracy depends on scientific and technological progress, but at the same time, we should attach importance to the subjective initiative of forecasters and adopt various ways to improve their skills and quality. The evaluation report of the Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the United States once pointed out that the role of excellent forecasters in weather forecasting is equivalent to the improvement effect of numerical forecasting model 10- 12. It is of great significance to train high-quality forecasters and give full play to their role in forecasting, so as to improve the accuracy of forecasting.
Our province is one of the areas most seriously affected by meteorological disasters, and natural disasters cause economic and property losses of hundreds of millions of yuan every year. In order to effectively defend against meteorological disasters and secondary disasters such as typhoon, rainstorm, drought and strong convective weather, and reduce the loss of people's lives and property, meteorologists in our province have carried out many effective forecasting services.
To effectively improve the accuracy of weather forecasting, we should vigorously develop advanced forecasting technology, strengthen the research and development of comprehensive observation technology, global and regional numerical forecasting technology, professional numerical forecasting technology and climate system model, and strengthen the development, research and improvement of numerical forecasting product interpretation technology and method; Efforts will be made to promote the construction of advanced forecasting business systems, establish and improve China's independent numerical forecasting business system, targeted regional short-term forecasting and early warning business system for disastrous weather, professional forecasting business system for users' needs and short-term climate forecasting business system; It is necessary to build a modern forecasting system, regard the construction of forecasting system as a key link and key task in the reform of business technology system, speed up the improvement of forecasting business processes, speed up the establishment of research-oriented business, and establish a summary and analysis mechanism for forecasting technology of important weather processes.
Changsha Weather Forecast 15 Days
Weather forecast for Changsha, Hunan (future 15 days)
Related areas: Ningxiang weather Liuyang weather Xiangjiang new area weather Wangcheng weather Changsha county weather
February 2 (today
Daytime: cloudy
Night: cloudy
- 1~5℃
North wind and breeze
February 3 (Wednesday
Daytime: cloudy
Night: light rain
0~9℃
North wind and breeze
Thursday, 4 February
Daytime: light rain
Night: cloudy
2~6℃
North wind and breeze
February 5 (Friday
Day: sunny day
Night: sunny
2~ 1 1℃
North wind and breeze
February 6 (Saturday class)
Daytime: cloudy
Night: cloudy
1~ 10℃
North wind and breeze
February 7 (closed on Sunday
Day: sunny day
Night: sunny
2~ 15℃
North wind and breeze
February 8 (Spring Festival holiday)
Day: sunny day
Night: cloudy
5~ 18℃
Nanfeng breeze
9 February (closed on Tuesday)
very good
8~ 15℃
February 10 (closed on Wednesday
shower
10~ 16℃
February 1 1 (closed on Thursday
shower
6~ 13℃
February 12 (closed on Friday)
shower
5~ 1 1℃
February 13 (closed on Saturday
shower
5~ 1 1℃
February 14 (Sunday shift
shower
5~ 1 1℃
05 February 65438 (Monday
very good
5~ 13℃
Tuesday, February 65438, 2006
shower
7~9℃
Changsha 15 weather forecast?
65438+1October1June Thursday, the light rain turned cloudy at 2℃~ 5℃, and the northwest wind was less than level 3.
65438+ 10 month, 17 Friday, cloudy to light rain. At 4℃~ 6℃, the northwest wind is less than level 3.
65438+1October 18 Saturday light rain 5℃~ 8℃ northwest wind less than 3.
65438+1October Sunday 19, cloudy at 5℃~ 10℃, and the northwest wind is less than level 3.
65438+1On Monday, October 20th, the light rain was 6℃~ 1 1℃, and the northwest wind was less than Grade 3.
On Tuesday, June 265438+1October 2/kloc-0, the light rain was 4℃~ 1 1℃, and the northwest wind was less than level 3.
On Wednesday, October 22nd, 65438/kloc-0, light rain turned to moderate rain, and the northwest wind was 6℃ to 1 1℃ less than Grade 3.
On Thursday, October 23rd, 65438/KLOC-0, the rain was 7℃~ 9℃, and the north wind turned northwest wind was less than Grade 3.
On Friday, October 24th, 65438/kloc-0, the rain was 4℃~ 9℃, and the northwest wind was less than level 3.
65438+1Saturday, October 25th, rain turned cloudy, 4℃~ 7℃, and the north wind was below Grade 3.
654381October 26th Sunday cloudy to rainy, 4℃~ 9℃, north wind to northwest wind less than level 3.
On Monday, October 27th, 65438/kloc-0, the rain was 6℃~ 9℃, and the north wind was below Grade 3.
On Tuesday, October 28th, 65438/kloc-0, it turned cloudy to rainy, and the north wind from 5℃ to 12℃ was less than Grade 3.
It rained 4℃ ~ 10℃ on Wednesday, October 29, 65438, and the northerly wind turned to northeast wind less than level 3.
On Thursday, October 30th, 65438/kloc-0, the rain was 3℃~ 8℃, and the north wind was below Grade 3.
Weather forecast for Changsha 15 days
Weather forecast for Changsha 15 days
September 30th (Saturday shift)
cloudy to sunny
23~33℃
West wind 1 level
Good air
10 0 1 (National Day holiday
Sunny to cloudy
24~35℃
Southwest wind 1-2
Good air
10 02 (closed on Monday)
light rain
18~28℃
North wind 1-2
Good air
10 03 (closed on Tuesday
light rain
16~23℃
The north wind is 3-4
Good air
10 04 (Mid-Autumn Festival closed)
light rain
15~ 17℃
The north wind is 3-4
Good air
10 05 (closed on Thursday)
cloudy
16~ 18℃
North wind 1-2
air supremacy
10 06 (closed on Friday)
cloudy
19~25℃
Southeast wind 1-2
Good air
10 07 (closed on Saturday)
very good
18~30℃
Northeast wind level 2
Good air
10 08 (closed on Sunday)
very good
20~32℃
Southeast wind level 2
Good air
10 09 10 month (Monday
very good
20~32℃
Southeast wind level 2
Good air
10 June 10 (Tuesday
cloudy
23~33℃
Southeast wind level 2
Good air
65438+1October 1 1 (Wednesday
cloudy
19~33℃
Northwest wind level 3
Good air
10 June 12 (Thursday
cloudy
17~27℃
Northwest wind level 3
Good air
10 June 13 (Friday
very good
18~33℃
Northwest wind level 2
air supremacy
10 June 14 (Saturday
very good
2 1~33℃
Northeast wind level 2
air supremacy
Changsha weather forecast Changsha weather forecast one week Changsha weather forecast nearly one week Changsha weather forecast one week Changsha weather forecast this week Changsha weather forecast.
Brief report on the weather forecast of Changsha in the future 10 day
Tomorrow's weather in Changsha: light rain during the day and showers at night. The temperature is 4℃ ~ 7℃, and the north wind is level 3.
The weather in Changsha the day after tomorrow: showers during the day and showers at night, with the temperature of 5℃ ~ 9℃ and the westerly wind in the north of 2.
After 3 days, the weather in Changsha: daytime showers, night showers, temperature 6℃ ~ 9℃, north wind level 2.
Four days later, the weather in Changsha: scattered showers during the day, partly cloudy at night, the temperature is 6℃ ~ 13℃, and the north wind is level 2.
After 5 days, the weather in Changsha: cloudy during the day, partly cloudy at night, with the temperature of 7℃ ~ 13℃ and the north wind level 2.
After 6 days, the weather in Changsha: sunny in the daytime and sunny at night, the temperature is 7℃ ~ 17℃, and the north wind comes from the west.
After 7 days, the weather in Changsha: sunny in the daytime, sunny at night, the temperature is 9℃ ~ 16℃, and the north wind is level 2.
After 8 days, the weather in Changsha: sunny in the daytime, partly cloudy at night, temperature 10℃ ~ 17℃, southerly wind level 2.
After 9 days, the weather in Changsha: cloudy during the day and cloudy at night, with the temperature of 1 1℃ ~ 19℃ and the southerly wind of Grade 2.
Changsha weather forecast 15 days query one by one
Hello,
Changsha weather forecast
June 17 (today, 29℃~2 1℃, day: sunny, night: sunny, easterly level 3)
June 18 (Sunday, 30℃~23℃, day: cloudy, night: cloudy, southeast wind 1-2)
June 19 (Monday, 29℃~24℃, day: shower, night: shower, southerly wind 1-2)
June 20th (Tuesday, 30℃~24℃, daytime: shower, night: shower, southerly wind 1-2)
June 2 1 (Wednesday 28℃~24℃, day: moderate rain, night: moderate rain, southerly wind 1-2)
June 22 (Thursday 3 1℃~24℃, light rain during the day, light rain at night)
June 23rd (Friday, 33℃~27℃, daytime: showers, night: showers.
June 24th (Saturday, 30℃~24℃, moderate rain during the day, moderate rain at night.
June 25th (Sunday, 28℃~23℃, day: moderate rain, night: moderate rain)
June 26th (Monday, 30℃~2 1℃, moderate rain during the day, moderate rain at night)
June 27th (Tuesday, 28℃~ 19℃, moderate rain during the day and moderate rain at night.
June 28th (Wednesday, 27℃~2 1℃, with moderate rain during the day and moderate rain at night)
June 29th (Thursday, 27℃~22℃, day: moderate rain, night: moderate rain
June 30th (Friday, 29℃~22℃, day: moderate rain, night: moderate rain.
July 0 1 (Saturday, 30℃~23℃, day: moderate rain, night: moderate rain)