According to an article on the Internet, anyone who knows the family history of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. knows that it is the way out for ternary lithium batteries that has made Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. rise rapidly and even stepped on BYD, the leader in the field of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Considering the market environment and policies at that time, contemporary Ampere Technology can be said to have reaped the dividends brought by the high energy density of ternary lithium batteries.
However, in April this year, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. said that in the next three to four years, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. will gradually increase the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries, while the production capacity of ternary lithium batteries will gradually decrease. Then, for what reason does Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., which once regarded lithium iron phosphate battery as "smelly shit", now turn to lithium iron phosphate battery as "fragrant cake"?
After three years, lithium iron phosphate battery overtook ternary lithium battery for the first time. The latest data shows that in May this year, the domestic power battery output was 13.8GWh, an increase of 165.8% compared with May 2020 and an increase of 6.7% and 438+0 compared with April 2026. Among them, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 8.8GWh, accounting for 63.6% of the total output this month, up 365,438+07.3% year-on-year and 465,438+0.6% quarter-on-quarter; In the same period, the output of ternary lithium batteries was 5.0GWh, accounting for 36.2% of the total output this month, up 62.9% year-on-year and down 25.4% quarter-on-quarter. That is to say, in 202 1 year, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeded that of ternary lithium battery for the first time. It is worth noting that during the period from 20021to1~ May, the total output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 29.9GWh, accounting for 50.3% of the total output, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 360.7%. The cumulative output of ternary lithium batteries was 29.5GWh, accounting for 49.6% of the total output, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 153.4%. It can be seen that with the output exceeding in May, the total output of lithium ferrous phosphate is temporarily ahead of that of ternary lithium batteries.
In May this year, the domestic power battery load was 9.8GWh, up 178.2% year-on-year. Among them, the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 4.5GWh, accounting for 45.9% of the assembly car; At the same time, the loading capacity of ternary lithium battery is 5.2GWh, which accounts for 53% of the total assembled vehicle. According to the industry forecast, the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is expected to surpass ternary lithium battery in June 20021year and return to the position of power battery market leader. 202 1 year1may, the cumulative loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 17. 1GWh, accounting for 41.3% of the total vehicle capacity; The cumulative load of ternary lithium battery reached 24.2GWh, accounting for 58.5% of the total assembly.
As two major technical routes in the field of power batteries, there is almost a trade-off between lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries. Ternary lithium batteries have become more and more popular in recent years because of their higher energy density, even surpassing lithium iron phosphate batteries. But in comparison, lithium iron phosphate battery has two obvious advantages-lower cost and higher safety.
In fact, since the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery was surpassed by ternary lithium battery for the first time in 20 18, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery has gradually declined. According to the data of Power Battery Alliance, the cumulative output of domestic power batteries reached 70.6GWh in 20 18 years, of which ternary batteries accounted for 55.5% and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 39.7%. In the same period, the loading capacities of ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery were 33. 1GWh and 22.2GWh, respectively, accounting for 58. 1% and 39% of the loading capacity. Insiders pointed out that behind the "twists and turns" in the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries, perhaps the most crucial thing is cost.
At the end of 20 16, the state adjusted the subsidy policy for the promotion of new energy vehicles, and included the battery energy density in the subsidy reference index for the first time. At that time, the energy density level of lithium iron phosphate battery was mainly about 70Wh/kg~80Wh/kg, which was far from the standard that the mass energy density of power battery system of pure electric passenger car should not be lower than 90Wh/kg, but higher than the subsidy of 1. 1 times. So they can't enjoy this wave of preferential policies, and gradually have energy.
However, in 20 19, the subsidy for new energy vehicles decreased by about 50% on average, which made it possible for lithium iron phosphate batteries to compete with ternary lithium batteries again. In April 2020, the Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles proposed to extend the subsidy period to the end of 2022. In principle, the subsidy standard for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year. As a result, more and more enterprises began to consider lithium iron phosphate batteries which have more cost advantages than ternary batteries. Not only that, after the advent of BYD blade battery in 2020, lithium iron phosphate battery was enthusiastically sought after by the market, and the demand increased, and the output of lithium iron phosphate battery also increased.
According to the data of Power Battery Alliance, in 2020, the cumulative output of domestic power batteries was 83.4GWh (including the production part of overseas bases of power battery enterprises), down 2.3% year-on-year. Among them, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery increased against the trend, and the cumulative output reached 34.6GWh, a cumulative increase of 24.7% year-on-year; The cumulative output of ternary lithium batteries reached 48.5GWh, down 65,438+02% year-on-year.
According to the latest research report of CICC, it is predicted that the permeability of lithium iron phosphate battery will increase to 45~50% in the future. In addition, in overseas markets, giants such as Tesla, Volkswagen and Apple have indicated that they have begun to consider the possibility of installing lithium iron phosphate batteries in new energy vehicles in the future. Even some international market research institutions predict that lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to surpass ternary lithium batteries in the future 10 and occupy a dominant position in the market.
On June 3rd, 65438, at the 202 1 China Auto Chongqing Forum, Wang Chuanfu, Chairman and President of BYD Co., Ltd., said that China's own brand electric vehicles had surpassed foreign capital in technology. In May this year, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery has surpassed that of ternary lithium battery, and BYD Blade Battery has pulled lithium iron phosphate battery back from the marginalized position in the market by its own efforts. The battery capacity of Chongqing Bishan factory has reached 20GWh and will reach 35GWh by the end of the year.
According to a research report of Huaan Securities, under the limit calculation, lithium iron phosphate battery has a cost advantage of 55% and 22% at the level of positive electrode and battery core, respectively. Under the current subsidy scheme, even considering the difference of subsidies, switching from ternary to lithium-ion batteries will bring about a cost reduction of 9~ 1 1%, and this cost reduction effect will be more significant after the subsidy of 202 1 is reduced. Driven by cost, major car companies have launched lithium ferrous phosphate models.
In addition to more and more vehicles equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, the price of lithium iron phosphate can also reflect the surge in market demand. According to the data of Guohai Securities Research Institute, the price of lithium ferrous phosphate rebounded from 5438+ 10 in June 2020, from a low of 32,000 yuan/ton to 5 1 10,000 yuan/ton in May, with an increase of more than 59% in more than half a year. Huaan Securities Research Report believes that 202 1 will be a big year for the growth of lithium ferrous phosphate demand, which is expected to increase by 80% year-on-year.
A few years ago, before the popularization of charging piles and fast charging technology, the actual cruising range of pure electric vehicles could basically determine the travel range of users. With the popularization of charging piles and fast charging technology, consumers' requirements for the endurance of new energy vehicles are not as strong as in the early days, so the biggest advantage of ternary lithium batteries is gradually becoming less dazzling.
Similarly, because endurance is no longer the only demand of new energy vehicles, the safety weakness of ternary lithium batteries is becoming more and more prominent. In recent years, lithium iron phosphate batteries not only give full play to their safety advantages, but also make up for the lack of energy density through CTP technology.
Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. now chooses to increase the capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery and reduce the capacity of ternary lithium battery, just to be invincible in the market. As Zeng Yuquan himself said before: "The whole industrial chain of Contemporary Ampu Technology Co., Ltd. is doing, and the role of moving bricks and building platforms cannot be neglected. Nowadays, with the increasing popularity of charging piles, the cruising range of electric vehicles is no longer very long. At this time, the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate battery will be accelerated due to its low cost. Therefore, in terms of proportion, lithium iron phosphate batteries may gradually increase in the future, while ternary batteries will have a small proportion, but they will not disappear completely. Because some high-end cars with high energy density and high endurance still need the support of ternary batteries. However, lithium ferrous phosphate is definitely useful. "
From a technical point of view, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is quite competitive in the whole battery industry. (Citing the report issued by Century Securities)
First of all, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. attaches great importance to the research and development of products and technologies. The absolute value of the company's R&D expenditure is significantly higher than that of other companies in the industry. In 2020, the company spent 3.569 billion yuan, with a five-year compound growth rate of 33.2%. The proportion of R&D expenditure in operating income is maintained at around 7%, which is lower than that of peer companies after 20 17, mainly in industries with leading operating income scale and growth rate. Compared with another international power battery giant, South Korea's LG Chem's R&D investment in the battery field in 2020 is 2.42 billion yuan, with a five-year compound growth rate of 9.7% and an R&D expense ratio of only 3.3%. The company has a perfect R&D system covering product R&D, engineering design, testing and verification, process manufacturing and other fields, and maintains the company's product competitiveness by continuously improving product performance and product quality.
Secondly, by the end of 2020, the company had 5,592 R&D technicians, accounting for 18. 16%, including 127 doctors and 1382 masters. The R&D team as a whole is in the leading position in the industry. Based on independent research and development, supplemented by extensive and in-depth cooperation, the company has established a multi-department and internal and external collaborative research and development model, and built a standardized, standard, efficient and sustainable research and development system. By the end of 2020, the company and its subsidiary * * * had 2,969 domestic patents, 348 overseas patents and 3,454 domestic and foreign patents under application. We believe that the company's technological advantages will be maintained for a long time.
Third, the company has four R&D centers and five production bases, and its R&D strength and production capacity are leading the world. In China, the company has completed the layout with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. as the center and subsidiaries such as Qinghai Times, Jiangsu Times and Sichuan Times as the important pillars, occupying half of the domestic power battery industry. At the same time, in 20 14, the company established its first overseas subsidiary, German Times, and then gradually improved its global layout, and successively established subsidiaries such as American Times, French Times and Japanese Times. In 20 18, the company began to build its first overseas production base in Germany, making it bigger and stronger on a global scale. 10, the company has successfully transformed into a global leader in the power lithium battery industry.
Finally, the company has a clear long-term technical route planning, and the current product performance upgrade is basically in line with expectations. Multi-line parallel is the core idea of the company's battery development. Ternary lithium products are mainly used in high-end passenger cars. At present, NCM523 products are the main products, and NCM8 1 1 are high-end products. Lithium ferrous phosphate products are mainly used in low-end passenger cars, commercial vehicles and energy storage fields. The cost of battery pack mainly comes from battery core materials and structural parts, both of which affect the performance of battery system. The company firmly grasps the core competitiveness of five power batteries: high specific energy, long life, ultra-fast charging, true safety and self-control temperature, innovates the battery structure and material technology, and assists with intelligent system management to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and solve the pain points of users' short cruising range, short cruising time, long charging time, poor low-temperature performance and poor safety performance.
Finally, the next generation battery technology-all-solid-state battery. All-solid-state batteries use solid materials as electrolytes to transport lithium ions back and forth. Compared with lithium batteries using electrolyte, it is less prone to short circuit and fire. It is characterized in that electrodes and electrolytes are alternately arranged, which is easy to be stacked. Therefore, the energy density per unit weight is higher than that of existing lithium batteries, and the cruising range of pure electric vehicles can be improved under the same battery size.
However, the most important problem of all-solid-state batteries is that the current cost is considered by the industry to be more than four times higher than that of lithium batteries. According to the statistics of Ford Motor Company of the United States, the current cost of lithium batteries for pure electric vehicles is about 654.38+300,000 yen per kWh, and it will fall below 654.38+300,000 yen by 2030. Some overseas manufacturers hope to take the lead in mastering all-solid-state battery technology and enter the mass production market earlier in order to save the situation in the power battery market.
(I'm a technophile organization)