Electricity consumption continues to rise.
According to the statistics of China Meteorological Bureau, the daily maximum temperature of 14 1 national meteorological stations has reached above 40℃ this year. On August 14, Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory issued a road surface temperature forecast, which showed that the maximum road surface temperature would reach 72℃, and the tire was in danger of puncture.
Due to the continuous high temperature, sunny and hot weather, drought occurred in the southern region. According to Xinhua News Agency, since mid-June this year, the precipitation in the Yangtze River basin has changed from changeable to less, and it was less than 30% in July, especially in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake system, which was the least in the same period of the past decade.
Affected by this, the water level in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is obviously lower than that in the same period of history. As of 8: 00 on August 1 1 day, the water levels in the main stream of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the control stations in the two lakes were 5-6 meters lower than normal. On August 1 1, the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to start the four-level emergency response to drought in six provinces including Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. Drought and lack of rain affect the output of hydropower generation.
The peak power consumption is limited by hydropower, the power gap is enlarged, and the power production is further under pressure.
When the weather is hot, the electricity consumption will increase. According to the data of electricity consumption of the whole society from June 5438 to July released by the National Energy Administration, the electricity consumption of the whole society from June 5438 to July was 4,930.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, in July, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 832.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry 12 1 100 million kwh, increased by 14.3% year-on-year. The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 513.2 billion kwh, down 0.1%year-on-year; Electricity consumption of the tertiary industry 159 1 100 million kwh, up11.5% year-on-year; The electricity consumption of urban and rural residents148 billion kwh, up by 26.8% year-on-year.
Combination boxing ensures power supply
In terms of measures to ensure power supply, this year's State Grid mainly requires saving electricity, timely repairing first-line power facilities, and orderly using electricity to ensure safe and stable power supply.
Orderly electricity consumption refers to staggering the peak hours of different users and controlling part of electricity demand through administrative means, economic means and technical methods. On the premise of ensuring the safety of power supply in large power grids, maintain a stable and orderly order of power supply and demand. If the production of enterprises is changed from daytime to nighttime, it can not only effectively reduce the load during the peak hours of electricity consumption, but also will not affect the output of enterprises. At the same time, enterprises can also get a subsidy from the power supply company.
It is noteworthy that China has also taken corresponding measures in power production to ensure the stable supply of firepower.
Power sources in China mainly include thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and solar energy, and thermal power has always been the main power generation mode in China. According to the data of Yan Guan Report Network, in 2020, among all kinds of power generation in China, thermal power generation accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for 7 1. 19%, followed by hydropower generation, accounting for 16.37%.
In order to ensure the timely supply of thermal power, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a number of policies this year to crack down on disguised price gouging and control coal prices in a reasonable space. According to the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field in the first half of August 2022 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 14, the prices of various kinds of coal were lowered in the first half of August. Among them, the ton price of anthracite, one of the electric coal that can be used for power generation, is 1466.9 yuan, which is 12 1.7 yuan lower than the previous price, with a decrease of 7.7%.
At the same time, the expansion of China's coal and lignite imports also restrained the increase of domestic coal prices this year to some extent, and avoided the recurrence of the 202 1 coal madness. According to the import data of China General Administration of Customs, China imported 2,352.3 tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 454.38+0 tons compared with June.
In addition, due to the abundant green energy resources such as wind energy and photovoltaic, China is also accelerating the promotion of new energy power generation. At the 2022 Belt and Road Clean Energy Development Forum held on August 12, Xin Baoan, Chairman and Party Secretary of State Grid Corporation, put forward the new energy development goal of China. He said that with the deepening of the double carbon process, the energy system is undergoing systematic and fundamental changes, and the energy supply structure is undergoing in-depth adjustment. It is estimated that by 2030, the installed scale of new energy power generation such as wind power and solar power generation in China will surpass coal power to become the largest power source, and the proportion of new energy power generation is expected to exceed 50% before 2060.
The virtual power plant came on stage.
The overall power supply in China is in a stable range and will not change much in the short term. In the face of the sudden increase of electricity load such as air conditioning under continuous high temperature weather, it is particularly critical to strengthen power dispatching. Lin, dean of China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that this year, the construction of virtual power plants based on big data was highlighted.
What is a virtual power plant? Wu Qi, Executive Dean of Wuxi Digital Economy Research Institute, told beijing business today reporter today that the virtual power plant is actually a power supply coordination management system based on big data participating in power grid operation and power market, which is externally manifested as controllable power supply. Take the hydropower station as an example. In previous years, due to the lack of water inflow data from upstream power stations, it was impossible to adjust the power generation load in time and make a clear power generation plan. Hydropower stations are often in a state of blind power generation during flood season. After the hydropower station is connected to the virtual power plant platform, the staff can know the upstream water inflow and outflow and power generation in time every morning, thus realizing the sharing of upstream and downstream hydrological and power generation data.
The big data attribute of virtual power plant can promote the consumption of new energy power generation at the production end, reduce the production cost of enterprises, accurately control electricity consumption at the demand end and reduce the electricity load of enterprises. Lin added.
Thanks to the outstanding dispatching advantages, the construction of virtual power plants is gradually accelerating. According to industry insiders, the interactive response platform of source load aggregation with virtual power plant function has been put into operation in Hunan Province, covering more than 3,300 hydropower stations with an installed capacity of 7.3 million kilowatts.
In China, the virtual power plant project of State Grid has started to operate, and Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places are also actively exploring the landing of related projects. Taking Zhejiang as an example, during the peak load on the afternoon of June 30th, the intelligent virtual power plant platform independently developed by Zhejiang Power Grid was officially put into commercial operation. After receiving the regulation demand of the intelligent virtual power plant platform, Wenzhou Lucheng Yintai Charging Station completed the regulation target of 200 kW by accurately regulating the charging load.
In the middle of this year, the policies of various provinces were introduced intensively, and TV universities such as Zhejiang, Shenzhen and Shanghai accelerated the participation of virtual power plants in power grid regulation. On June 30, 2022, the intelligent virtual power plant platform of State Grid Zhejiang Comprehensive Energy Company was launched; On June 13, 2022, the Shenzhen Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued "Shenzhen Virtual Power Plant Landing Work Plan (2022-2025)".
Specific to Beijing, on July 22, 2022, the Beijing Urban Management Committee issued the "Beijing Electric Power Development Plan during the Tenth Five-Year Plan", which incorporated the construction of virtual power plants into the electric power development plan for the first time.
Is it difficult to promote?
The market prospect of the virtual power plant, which only caught fire this year, is the focus of the industry.
According to the calculation of State Grid, it will cost 400 billion yuan to realize peak load shedding and valley filling in power system through thermal power plants and meet 5% peak load. Through the virtual power plant, the investment in construction, operation, incentive and other links only needs 50-60 billion yuan, and the cost of the virtual power plant is only 1/8- 1/7 of that of the thermal power plant.
It is impossible for the country to build a corresponding number of thermal power plants to ensure the demand for electricity during peak hours and leave them idle when the electricity consumption is not high. Reasonable dispatching and orderly power consumption is a daily reasonable scheme to solve the peak power consumption. Virtual power plants based on big data scheduling and relatively low investment are obviously more cost-effective. Lin explained.
Although it has a certain cost performance ratio, the absolute input cost is not low, and the replication and promotion of virtual power plants need profit support. Yang Yang, an analyst at Guohai Securities, said in the research report released on July 26th that Shenneng, the first domestic virtual power plant to dispatch user loads to participate in the spot power market, earned an average profit of 0.274 yuan in May 2022. According to the forecast of China Electric Power Enterprise Association, the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 9.5 trillion kWh in 2025, and the maximum load will reach 65.438+63 billion kW. Assuming that the adjustable capacity is 5% and the investment cost is 654.38+0.000 yuan/kw, it is estimated that the investment scale of virtual power plant is expected to reach 865.438+0.5 billion yuan by 2025.
In addition to the market scale, the Insight Report of China Virtual Power Station Industry in 2022 (hereinafter referred to as the Insight Report) issued by 36Kr Research Institute puts forward a more complete profit model of virtual power stations. On the one hand, China's virtual power plants charge service fees for controllable resources to help them participate in market transactions; On the other hand, the difference of demand response compensation can also be obtained. According to its analysis, at present, China has not established a unified standard in terms of trading operation rules, resource aggregation scope, new energy coordinated control strategy and scheduling algorithm of virtual power plants, and there is a large room for development.
Nevertheless, it is still necessary to build virtual power plants. The Insight Report shows that on the demand side, the relationship between power supply and demand in the eastern and western regions of China is tightening, and the contradiction between power peak and valley is becoming increasingly prominent. More than 95% of the annual maximum load is less than 50 hours, so reliable solutions are urgently needed. On the supply side, the increasingly mature technology has prompted the cost of virtual power plants to continue to decline.
On the whole, Lin is very optimistic about the prospect of virtual power plants. On the supply side, clean energy such as wind power and photovoltaic is unstable; On the demand side, production enterprises also need to reduce the load. Virtual power plants that can accurately dispatch power generation have broad prospects. However, how to ensure that the virtual power plant can be profitable as scheduled after its completion is a problem that users are more worried about during its promotion, which needs to be solved through the reform of electricity price marketization. Lin explained.
Experts predict that there will be no power outage this autumn.
Speaking of electricity consumption, at the turn of summer and autumn in 20021,many coastal provinces from Northeast China, North China to South China experienced large-scale power cuts, which had a certain impact on the economy and people's livelihood and attracted attention at that time. Whether electricity will be cut off this autumn still affects everyone's heartstrings, especially the producers of enterprises.
In this regard, Lin, dean of China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that there will be no more power cuts this year.
He explained three reasons for last year's electricity shortage: First, at the turn of summer and autumn last year, production was in the stage of rapid recovery after the epidemic, and the social electricity consumption increased rapidly, making it difficult to keep up with the power supply. Secondly, coal prices soared last year, and the market-oriented reform of electricity prices has not yet landed. The price of coal and electricity is upside down, and the enterprises producing electricity are in a state of loss, which leads to the reduction of power supply. Finally, last year, lsquo energy consumption dual control rsquo index assessment was very strict. In the first half of the year, local control was loose. At the end of the year, lsquo rushed to complete the task rsquo, so we can only use lsquo to cut down the total energy consumption.
According to the data of National Energy Administration, Lin's point of view is confirmed. From 20021-June, the electricity consumption of the whole society in China was 3,933.9 billion kWh, up by 16.2% year-on-year. From June 5438 to July 2022, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 4,930.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. In 20021the increase of electricity consumption in the first half of the year was 12.8 percentage points higher than that in June+0-July of 2022.
Under the influence of national macro-control and various factors, coal prices have returned to a reasonable range this year. The energy consumption is controlled by rsquo, and the power consumption is high, so there will be no more lsquo power outage rsquo phenomenon last year. On the whole, China's electricity supply is still relatively adequate, even if the power supply is tight, it will only take a few days. Except for the particularly rapid growth of power demand last year, our power supply did not have any problems in the first ten years, and there should be no problems in the future.
But in the long run, Lin believes that the long-term solution to solve the future power supply problem is to increase revenue and reduce expenditure. In fact, China has never stopped on the road of increasing revenue and reducing expenditure.