The transition is fast and slow, and the harvest is a matter of time. However, you can't fall down before dawn.
"If you don't break out in silence, you will perish in silence".
In 2023, China automobile enterprises rallied, and the "price war" in the first quarter was full of gunpowder. However, after the performance of car companies was released last year, the new pattern has been clear.
Among them, the most important thing is that new energy automobile companies and fuel automobile companies have distinct boundaries between Chu and Jianghan:
On the one hand, it is the "Sla" of the top two, and on the other hand, it is a traditional car company that looks at the ocean and sighs.
No wonder at this year's financial report meeting, Gui Shengyue, executive director and CEO of Geely Automobile Holdings Co., Ltd., bluntly said that Geely's new energy vehicles were "pulled away" by outstanding peers.
As early as 2020, Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motor, had already made this reflection. At that time, Great Wall Motor was on the rise, and Wei Jianjun said, "Can the Great Wall still live next year?" It feels a bit like Versailles.
However, two years later, it turned out that Wei Jianjun was not worried.
For the "independent duo", although the data on the books, such as revenue, net profit and cash flow, are beautiful enough, Geely Automobile has lost the number one position of its own brand in sales for several years in a row, and the sales of Great Wall Motor has dropped by as much as 16.66%-if Geely has lost its peers, Great Wall has not defeated itself.
We used to compare them together as samples of China's own brands, and this is also the case now. The reason why I didn't join BYD is because the first two products are still the product structure of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, and BYD has turned to new energy vehicles in an all-round way, and now it is a direct competitor with Tesla.
But except for the "bit" combination, the traditional automobile manufacturers all over the world are in the same situation as Geely and Great Wall, and their advantages and disadvantages are the same, so the comparison between them is more valuable and meaningful for the "majority" in the process of transformation.
From scale orientation to high value orientation
China's independent brands have moved from the simple pursuit of economies of scale to high-value orientation, which is particularly evident in the annual report of "Independent Double Heroes".
The growth of financial data such as revenue and net profit of the two companies also benefited from the optimization of product structure, that is, the proportion of high-value products continued to increase.
Take Geely Automobile as an example. In 2022, Geely's bicycle sales revenue was 10.3 million yuan, an increase of 29.6% compared with 79,000 yuan in 2026, and the average bicycle gross profit was 1.75 million yuan, an increase of1.
It is worth noting that the above figures are mainly driven by the performance of the "China Star" high-end series under the CMA framework.
In 2022, the sales volume of "China Star" series exceeded 250,000 vehicles, accounting for nearly 23% of Geely (including geometry) brand, the highest monthly sales volume reached 30,000 vehicles, and the average bicycle price reached 6.5438+0.5 million yuan.
Although the sales volume of Lectra declined, the average sales revenue increased by 65,438+05.3%, which was due to the increase of the average product price from 65,438+030,300 yuan in 2026,438+0 to 65,438+050,200 yuan. The flagship product Linke 09 also entered the price range of 300,000 yuan, and the product premium ability continued to improve.
At present, both products are higher than 300,000 yuan. Among them, the average order amount of Krypton 00 1 exceeds 336,000 yuan. In June this year, the average order amount of Kyk 009 delivered in 5438+ 10 was as high as 527,000 yuan.
If Geely Automobile is rising steadily, then Great Wall Motor can achieve a substantial increase in revenue and profits under the premise of a sharp drop in sales, which is the redemption of high-value products.
In 2022, the average bicycle sales price of Great Wall Motor reached129,400 yuan, up 2 1.47% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin reached 19.37%, up 3.2 1 percentage point compared with 20021.
It is particularly noteworthy that the sales volume of Great Wall Motor with a price of over 200,000 yuan increased to 15.27%. Among them, the tank brand contributed a lot. Last year, it contributed1260,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47.2%.
In addition, Great Wall Motor's sales of smart cars reached 86. 17% last year, which is also a highlight. You know, one thing that traditional car companies have been ridiculed by new forces in recent years is intelligence. Now, the gap in intelligence is gradually narrowing.
Undoubtedly, "high face value" is becoming a new standard for independent brands, which is also an important reason why its market share can gradually surpass that of joint venture brands.
Xibei new energy
Steadily realize the "independent double heroes" with upward value, and the new energy business has mixed feelings.
The reason, whether it is Geely, whose growth is obvious, or the Great Wall, which fell unexpectedly, can't simply draw a conclusion across the board.
Objectively speaking, new energy is a new addition of Geely. However, it is still the fuel vehicles whose sales volume drops 10% that contribute to the profits.
In 2022, Geely Automobile sold 328,700 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of three times, and the sales proportion increased from 6.2% in the same period last year to 22.9%.
However, the increment of new energy business has not increased profits. Take krypton for example. Last year, the sales of krypton gas surprised the world with nearly 72,000 vehicles, but the loss also increased from 65.438 billion yuan of 202 1 to about 2 billion yuan. This situation is exactly the same as "Wei Xiaoli": the more you sell, the more you owe.
Ke Ling, which has achieved remarkable results in new energy transformation, sold 39,000 PHEV vehicles in 2022, with the proportion increasing from 202 1 to 2 1.7% in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2 percentage points. However, both revenue and profit declined.
The reason is not difficult to understand. Insufficient scale effect and rising raw material prices, especially high-end electric vehicle brands, are doomed to go through a climbing period.
Fortunately, there are solutions to both of these difficulties. Reducing costs and increasing efficiency is one of the schemes. At present, Geely's broad framework has authorized many brands and models, which helps to amortize the manufacturing cost of each model.
The price of raw materials for power batteries continues to fall. An Conghui, president of Geely Holding Group and CEO of Jizhi Technology, said frankly that the price of lithium carbonate per ton dropped by 65,438+10,000 yuan, affecting 575 yuan and contributing 0.2% to gross profit.
It can be said that this is the collective welfare of automobile manufacturers, and you no longer have to feel that you have been working for Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd..
In addition, since the beginning of this year, Geely has also reconstructed the new energy business structure: geometrically hold the market below 6.5438+0.5 million yuan, and the Galaxy series focuses on the mid-to high-end market of 200,000 yuan, leading the impact on the market of 200,000-300,000 yuan, aiming at the market above 300,000 yuan.
The three lines of internal and external troubles have been sorted out. What Geely needs to do is to continue to slow down and wait for the increase in income and profits.
However, for Great Wall Motor, the situation is complicated.
In 2022, the sales volume of Great Wall new energy vehicles was only 65,438+065,438+0.99 million, which was 65,438+03.79% lower than that of 2026,5438+0. Sales and income only account for 1 1% of the company's total.
In fact, Great Wall Motor has invested heavily in new energy and intelligent research and development in the past two years. Among them, just last year, R&D investment 12 1.8 1 billion yuan, up 34.34% year-on-year, accounting for 8.87% of the total operating income. But from the perspective of income, it is obvious that pay and gain are not equal.
However, the strength of Great Wall Motor lies in its "forest-like ecology" forming a complete industrial layout. In March of this year, in order to catch up with the new energy track, Great Wall launched a new intelligent four-wheel drive hybrid technology Hi4, and slogan "Open the era of all-people electric four-wheel drive".
According to the plan, this technology will take the lead in taking the brand-new Haval new energy vehicle which is listed recently, and all new energy products of Great Wall Motor will be fully popularized in 2024. If so, Great Wall Motor is expected to usher in a new round of growth cycle.
This is also the * * * of the current traditional automobile brands: there is a speed of transformation, and sooner or later there will be gains. But the speed of transformation will not only affect where there are benefits, but also lead to a slow pace.
Unleash the potential of overseas markets
In the case that the domestic market is already overwhelmed, overseas markets are becoming new incremental markets for independent brands.
Taking advantage of the east wind of China's automobile export in the past two years, both Geely and Great Wall got a new bucket of gold last year. More importantly, the profit models of the two began to become clear.
Geely's overseas income growth comes from two aspects.
First, automobile export. In 2022, the export sales volume of Geely Automobile was 6.5438+0.98 million vehicles, up 72.4% year-on-year, higher than the industry's growth rate of 56.7%. Yue Bin, Job PRO and Tugela are among the top market segments in various countries, while Lectra ranks first in the export of China brand vehicles at a price of more than 250,000 yuan.
Second, authorized income. The financial report shows that in 2022, the authorized income of Geely Automobile reached 65.438+66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%. From product export to technology export, Geely has taken a down-to-earth road.
Great Wall Motor, on the other hand, shows a new feature: the overseas market performs better than the local market.
In the China market, Great Wall Motor's sales and revenue both declined, with revenue1105.9 billion yuan, down 8% compared with 202 1.
However, the overseas sales of Great Wall Motor increased by 23.09% year-on-year, reaching 654.38+072.2 million units.
In terms of revenue, the Great Wall is also growing in various overseas markets in 2022. Among them, Russia's revenue in the second largest market reached 8.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.5%. Australian market revenue was 4.3 billion yuan, up 85.2% year-on-year.
From the brand point of view, Great Wall Haval, Euler and Great Wall pickup truck have won monthly sales champions in South Africa, Chile, Australia and Thailand for many times. Officials believe that Great Wall Motor's export in overseas markets still has great potential.
The outbreak of Great Wall Motor's overseas market benefited from two factors: First, it insisted on overseas layout, especially the layout of 20 19 in Russia; Second, return to "one GWM" and strengthen overseas brand awareness.
Undoubtedly, the intensified price war in the domestic market may force China automobile brands to continue to explore overseas markets. The hidden worry is the still unclear international situation. For Geely and the Great Wall, two-handed preparation is inevitable.
At the same time, this is also a real big exam. To become a truly international automobile brand, achieve global sales and maintain stability is also one of the important indicators.
Observation of human steam:
In fact, from the development curves of Geely and the Great Wall in recent years, it can be found that automobile manufacturers have to face not only the macroeconomic cycle, the cycle of industry and technology, but also the small cycle of their own development. In the past, we only focused on product size, but now there are more influencing factors.
However, we can also see that Geely and the Great Wall were once "independent brothers", maintaining the sales scale of one million vehicles for several years. In other words, whether in value or technology, they are more like competing with themselves than fighting with their opponents. At present, it is better to win yourself than to win your opponent.
The same is true of China automobile brands and multinational automobile enterprises in transition. Quantity is only a means, not an end. The ultimate goal should be to get out of the dawn of industry and see the sun.
This article comes from the author Hao, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.