Thunder! Zhengbang's latest debt ratio has reached 102.8% after a huge loss of over 20 billion! In order to reduce the debt pressure, Zhengbang has sold the shares of 20 subsidiaries this year! But the magic thing is that Zhengbang is not insolvent even though the debt ratio has exceeded 100%. But at this time, pig enterprises such as Muyuan, Wenshi and Dabeinong have made great moves, and a bigger crisis in Zhengbang is yet to come. ......

Zhengbang is betting on the future.

According to the evening announcement of Zhengbang 15, Zhengbang signed a cooperation framework agreement with Hubei Grain Co., Ltd. on September 14 to jointly build a pig breeding industry chain in Hubei:

In terms of asset cooperation, Zhengbang Technology intends to transfer some assets related to pig breeding to Hubei Grain Company, which will enter the pig breeding industry.

In terms of business cooperation, Hubei Grain Company can give priority to leasing the above-mentioned pig breeding related assets to Zhengbang Technology or its designated entity for operation, and provide the leased Zhengbang Technology or its designated entity with feed/raw materials needed for production and operation, with more competitive conditions than the same industry.

A stone stirred up a thousand waves, and the news that Zhengbang sold its subsidiary again spread quickly! Zhengbang has sold or transferred all or part of the shares of 20 holding subsidiaries this year!

As early as February 28th this year, Zhengbang sold eight feed subsidiaries to Dabei Nong for 2-2.5 billion yuan, and Zhengbang gained investment income of11-1900 million yuan! It seems that Zhengbang can get huge liquidity this time, but as of June 16, Zhengbang only received the first transaction capital of Dabeinong of 500 million yuan, which is less than the agreed "final payment"1500 million!

What needs more attention is that Zhengbang also signed a "gambling agreement" with Dabeinong. The target company's three-year performance gambling: the net profit returned to the mother in 2022, 2023 and 2024 should be no less than 65.438+300 million yuan, 65.438+600 million yuan and 200 million yuan respectively.

If the accumulated net profit returned to the mother after the expiration of three years is insufficient, Zhengbang needs to pay the difference to Dabeinong from its own pocket!

It is not difficult to foresee that if the industry situation is not good and ultimately fails to achieve profitability as scheduled, this transaction will increase the burden on Zhengbang!

It can be seen that Zhengbang is betting on a future with a broken arm-betting on the improvement of the market, the recovery of profits and the death of gambling! Perhaps because of this, Zhengbang can still insist on gritting its teeth when the debt ratio exceeds 102%.

Zhengbang debt has exceeded 102%!

202 1 This year, the country was devastated!

I still remember that Zhengbang shouted the slogan of "selling more than 20 million pigs a year" at the beginning of 20021,but in the end, it not only lost 65.438+0.88 billion in the whole year, but even led to a debt ratio as high as 92.60%!

The high debt ratio makes investors nervous, but I didn't expect Zhengbang's debt ratio to continue to rush to 102.88% under the depressed pig price in the first half of this year! In addition, there are even cases where commercial tickets are overdue. The overdue balance of Zhengbang Technology and its subsidiaries totaled 877 million yuan.

Fortunately, Zhengbang did not appear "insolvent" in the end, and still had a market value of10 billion.

Many people compare the young eagle with Zhengbang. First of all, the reason why they fell is highly similar-blind expansion!

The brainless expansion of the young eagle led to delisting. After making a big profit in raising pigs in 2020, Zhengbang set an ambitious goal-2021By 2023, the number of pigs to be slaughtered should not be less than 20 million, 40 million and 60 million respectively! Far beyond Wen, catch up with Muyuan!

However, it is such a "China Pig King" who is expected to catch up with Muyuan, but it hit the pig cycle in 202 1 year, with a loss of one year 15 profit.

However, Zhengbang is very different from the young eagle. The biggest difference between Zhengbang and Zhengbang is that they dare to "break their arms to survive" under the pressure of public opinion and dare to make drastic reforms to reduce production. Otherwise, it is impossible to achieve a debt ratio above 100% and a market value of tens of billions. This sounds like "Arabian Nights".

The future crisis of Zhengbang

Many people are talking about Zhengbang's "increase in losses this year", but they ignore that the pig price of 202/kloc-0 is good in the first half of the year and continues to fall in the second half; In the first half of 2022, the price of pigs was still low, and it rose steadily in the second half!

So in essence-Zhengbang's losses are shrinking!

Zhengbang 202 1 loss18.8 billion, only a loss of 4.2 billion in the first half of this year. Even if the loss in the second half of the year is 4 billion, this year's loss is more than 60% lower than last year!

However, under the current situation that pig prices are improving all the way, Zhengbang is expected to turn losses into profits in the second half of the year and hedge some losses in the first half of the year. In the end, the loss rate will be greatly reduced this year!

Therefore, the losses in the first half of the year are not terrible. For Zhengbang, a bigger crisis is yet to come!

That's next year! Next year, the production capacity of Muyuan may sprint to hundreds of millions of pigs, and Wen will return to the output of 20 million pigs. New Hope, Dabeinong and other listed pig enterprises are all expanding, and 350,000 pig enterprises in the whole industry will definitely expand again next year after regaining their vitality this year.

For Zhengbang, there are two great dangers and one great opportunity.

A great danger is that if the pig price is squeezed next year, the cost of superimposed feed will continue to rise (soybean meal has recently increased by 5 100 yuan/ton), and if Zhengbang cannot reduce the cost on a large scale, the loss will increase again!

The two major dangers are: if Zhengbang continues to shrink its production capacity under the pressure of debt ratio in the next two years, while other big pig enterprises are expanding all the way, its market share will be eroded continuously; Under the background of the country's large-scale regulation of pig production capacity, market share will become more and more precious and rare!

The biggest chance is that Zhengbang has survived more than 20 billion losses. If we can reduce costs and turn losses into profits in the future, it will be another big cake in the hearts of investors! Just like today's Wen, just like now's New Oriental! When we say that we look at a company, we don't look at how good it looks when it makes money, but how resistant it is when it is in the trough!