At present, the international political structure is in a situation where multipolarization and unipolar tendency coexist, and the two opposing forces will have a fierce contest. After the end of the Cold War, although the international situation tends to ease on the whole, the issue of world peace, like the issue of economic development, has not been resolved, and various international conflicts are still emerging. Therefore, Deng Xiaoping's assertion that peace and development are the two major themes in today's world is not out of date. The development direction and level of Sino-US relations are mainly restricted and influenced by the needs of strategic cooperation, economic and trade interests and ideological differences between the two sides. As long as these basic factors do not change greatly, the foundation of Sino-US relations will not be shaken, and the basic structure and framework of Sino-US relations will remain.

[Keywords:] world pattern; World theme; Sino-US relations

According to the thinking of China scholars of international relations, to study international issues, we should first analyze the basic characteristics of the current international political and economic structure, grasp the basic contradictions and major problems facing the world today, attach importance to the adjustment and development of relations among world powers, and pay more attention to Sino-US relations in China's foreign relations. Because the above problems are not only the basis of understanding international relations, but also directly affect the formulation of China's national development strategy and the realization of China's national interests.

First, the understanding of the world pattern was relatively consistent for a period of time after the end of the Cold War. Most scholars and officials agree that "the bipolar pattern has ended and the world is developing in the direction of multipolarization", that is, they recognize the development trend of multipolarization of the world pattern after the Cold War. However, since 1999, when the US-led NATO attacked China's embassy in Yugoslavia, there have been different views on this model. Some people think that the current world pattern is unipolar rule in the United States, and there is no so-called multipolar pattern at all. There are even views that the unipolar pattern is more stable than the multipolar pattern, which is not conducive to China. The reasons for this difference are the unipolar world leadership strategy gradually strengthened by the United States after the Cold War and the reality that the United States occupies a dominant position in the world pattern. At the same time, because we only emphasized in the past that the old pattern has collapsed and the new pattern has not yet formed, we did not seriously analyze the pattern state in the transition period, which seems to have caused a general understanding that there is no pattern state at present. This evasive way of objectively analyzing the current situation mainly emphasizes the uncertainty of the current international power adjustment and change, the theoretical instability of the unipolar pattern, and the consideration of opposing the unipolar hegemony of the United States. But it is this avoidance that leads to people's vague understanding of the world pattern after major events. In fact, the balance of world power exists objectively, and there can be no vacuum of power balance and blank of world pattern. The comparative structure of international power after the Cold War is a world pattern of "one superpower and many powers" formed between the United States as the only superpower and several other powers, that is, a unipolar and pluralistic world pattern. From the early 1990s to the first half of the 20th century, this pattern may last for decades. This is a transitional pattern between unipolar pattern and multipolar pattern, which has both unipolar and multipolar tendencies and obvious duality. On the one hand, the United States does occupy a dominant position in the post-cold war world structure, making the current pattern unipolar. After the Cold War, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, only the United States remained between the two superpowers. The United States has a unique comprehensive national strength in today's world, and it is in an obvious dominant position in terms of political, economic, military, scientific and technological strength, and cultural and diplomatic influence. The national interests of the United States are all over the world. Moreover, the United States is taking advantage of its favorable position in the pattern to try to strengthen and fix the unipolar tendency of the world pattern and realize the strategic plot of unipolar leadership in the world. Therefore, the United States' unipolar attempt to dominate the world has seriously hindered the development trend of international political multipolarization, and the unipolar world pattern may last for a long time. On the other hand, the multipolarization of the world pattern after the cold war is a powerful development trend. In today's increasingly interdependent international relations, the stability of the unipolar pattern will be challenged by various forces. After the cold war, although the United States has obvious advantages in comprehensive national strength, it has to rely on the moral and material support of its allies in its intervention. Americans themselves admit that their influence on allies and control over international affairs have begun to weaken. Unipolar hegemony is a denial of international political democratization and ultimately unpopular. No possible big country will voluntarily accept the arrangement of unipolar rule of the world. The United States and its allies also have contradictions on a series of major international political issues. At present, the division of labor and combination of big countries are still developing and changing. China, Russia, France and other countries have put forward the idea of promoting international political multipolarization, and various forms of partnerships between major powers are being established and adjusted. Multi-polarization of the world pattern is an objective development trend. Of course, multipolarization is a trend and process, which does not mean that the world has become multipolar. Therefore, the current international political structure is characterized by the coexistence of multipolarization and unipolar trends. Monopolarization is the reality that the United States is trying to maintain and strengthen, while multipolarization is the effort of other powerful countries and the development trend of the world, and there will be a fierce contest between the two opposing forces. The multipolarization of the international political structure will be a long and complicated process.

2. World Themes Peace and development are two major themes in today's world. During the Cold War, the East-West contradiction between the United States and the Soviet Union threatened world peace, and the North-South contradiction between developing countries and developed countries hindered economic development. This is Comrade Deng Xiaoping's theoretical summary of the two world-wide practical problems. It is an affirmation of the joint efforts of people all over the world to oppose war, strive for peace, revitalize the economy and promote development. Since the mid-1980s, people's understanding of the world theme is basically affirmative and consistent. However, due to the increasingly prominent US world strategy in the late 1990s, especially after a series of major events in Sino-US relations, many people think that peace and development are not the world theme, but our wishful thinking, and even deny the expression of the world theme on the basis of Comrade Xiaoping's exposition that "the two major problems of peace and development have not been solved". The key to understanding this debate is to correctly distinguish two different propositions: the world theme and the characteristics of the times. When discussing the theme of the times, most scholars often don't distinguish between the concepts of the world theme and the theme of the times, but confuse it with the proposition of the characteristics of the times, which leads to people's completely different views on peace and development as the world theme. The so-called characteristics of the times refer to the basic state of international political and economic relations adapted to a specific era and the basic characteristics determined and reflected by the basic contradictions in the world. It emphasizes objectivity and authenticity. The so-called world theme refers to the fundamental problems facing the world today and is a summary of the global strategic problems facing the world. It emphasizes subjectivity and goal. Peace and development are fundamental issues related to the survival and development of all mankind, and are also the subjective goals of people all over the world. Therefore, the two strategic issues of peace and development put forward by Comrade Xiaoping refer to the fundamental problems that have not been solved by all countries in the world at present, and are the main tasks and fundamental problems facing the international community. As we all know, the essence of the peace issue during the Cold War is the East-West issue, that is, the US-Soviet arms race and nuclear weapons are the biggest threats to world peace. After the end of the Cold War, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Eastern camp, the East-West problem ceased to exist, the danger of world war was greatly reduced, and the international situation generally tended to ease. However, the world is not peaceful, and various forms of armed conflicts and crises broke out due to ethnic, religious and territorial contradictions, one after another, and the scale and consequences greatly exceeded the past, and even intensified. Hegemonism and power politics interfere in other countries' internal affairs more frequently, and even develop to pursue their own strategic schemes in the form of armed conflicts. Therefore, the problem of world peace, like the problem of economic development, has not been solved. It can be seen that peace and development, as the theme of the world, do not necessarily become the characteristics of the times. The assertion that peace and development are the two major themes in today's world is not only out of date, but also has more important practical significance. Domestic scholars' debates on the theme of the world mostly focus on the category of the characteristics of the times. Skeptics deny that peace is the theme of the world, and the reality is that there is a threat of war in today's world; Perseverance also tries to prove that peace and development are the "mainstream" and "main theme" of the times by proving the reality of peace in areas that account for more than 80% of the world population and world economic output value, and affirms that peace and development are still the world theme. I don't know if this argument is just confusing the characteristics of the times with the world theme, questioning the world theme with the characteristics of the times and denying the subjective goal with objective reality.

3. On Sino-US Relations Sino-US relations are the most important aspect of China's foreign relations. This is mainly because the United States is the country with the strongest comprehensive national strength and the greatest influence on the international stage. It is the leader and "leader" of the West and can influence a large number of Western allies and developing countries. Sino-US relations are very important to China's opening to the outside world, because China is opening to the outside world, and the technology and funds imported mainly come from western countries. During Clinton's presidency, there were many contradictions and frictions in Sino-US relations, but the overall development of bilateral relations was stable, and the basic direction and trend were clear, that is, the two countries were committed to establishing a strategic partnership. Bush made some negative remarks about Sino-US relations during his presidential campaign. After he took office, there was a plane collision incident and a series of tough measures were taken against China, especially the remarks that "China and the United States are not partners but rivals". Many people think that Sino-US relations will deteriorate, and some even think that there will be serious military confrontation and conflict between China and the United States, perhaps the decisive battle between the two sides in the next world war. Where will Sino-US relations develop? This is a concern of both China and the United States and the people of the world. To answer this question, we should not rely on intuition or emotion, but should analyze the foundation of the establishment and development of Sino-US bilateral relations in the past 30 years, that is, the interests between countries. Specifically, there are the following factors that restrict and influence the development direction and level of Sino-US relations: First, the need for strategic cooperation. In the 1970s, the United States felt powerless and in a passive position in the competition with the Soviet Union. Therefore, it is hoped that Lianhua will oppose the Soviet Union and gain an advantage over the Soviet Union, thus establishing a triangular relationship between China, the United States and the Soviet Union. It is this need that urges China and the United States to transcend the differences in ideology and social system and develop bilateral relations. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, some people said that this strategic need no longer existed, and Sino-US relations were bound to deteriorate. It should be admitted that after the end of the Cold War, there were a series of discordant voices and several troubles in Sino-US relations. We should have a clear understanding of this. However, this is only one aspect of the problem. On the other hand, we should also see that China is a very important country in the world today and one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. It has the veto power, and world affairs can't be done without China's consent. China has great influence on nuclear non-proliferation and missile technology export restrictions, as well as on a series of global and regional issues such as the Korean Peninsula issue, the Middle East issue and United Nations cooperation. The United States also needs China's cooperation. The United States does not want China to be replaced by another big country. This is the need of strategic interests at the beginning of 2 1 century. The second is economic and trade interests. With the development of Sino-US relations, economic and trade relations have become an important part of Sino-US relations. The trade volume between the two sides increased from $2.45 billion in 1979 to nearly $85 billion in 2000, an increase of nearly 35 times. China has become one of the major exporters of American products. At the same time, the American market is also very dependent on China products. Trade with China means the employment of hundreds of thousands of people, which means good quality and cheap goods in American shops. Because China has implemented the basic national policy of reform and opening up, its economic strength has made great progress, and China's market has expanded and matured, with more attractive potential. The key to Clinton's decoupling of trade from human rights and promoting the Sino-US trade agreement on China's entry into WTO during his term of office lies in his recognition of this. Of course, the two countries still have a trade deficit in the United States. However, the interests of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries obviously outweigh the interests of conflict. The trade sanctions repeatedly threatened by the United States always end in compromise at the last minute, which just proves this point. The third is ideological differences. Its outstanding performance is the so-called "human rights issue". "Human rights diplomacy" was a slogan put forward by President Carter in the late 1970s. At that time, it was called "revitalizing the moral content of American diplomacy." However, China's strategic cooperation was needed during the Cold War, and the main target of human rights diplomacy was not China, but the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries. After 1989, the Soviet Union and East China changed dramatically, and China became the only socialist country in the world. The United States began to put pressure on China, and the future may be even more prominent. However, the issue of human rights essentially belongs to the ideological category, which has an impact on the judgment of national interests, but it is not the basic starting point of foreign relations. We should not give up our fundamental interests because of human rights issues. Besides, they have no other means to "liberalize" and "democratize" China, and their influence will be maintained by increasing contacts. Fourth, the problem of Taiwan Province Province. This is a long-standing legacy in Sino-US relations, and it is also the biggest and most difficult problem to solve in Sino-US relations, and it will still play an important role in the future. Since the resumption of exchanges between China and the United States in the 1970s, the development of Sino-US relations has been affected and restricted by the issue of Taiwan Province Province. From the Sino-US Shanghai Communiqué, the Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations to the August 17th Communiqué, and Bush's recent approval of arms sales to Taiwan, and his remarks on fully assisting Taiwan Province Province in self-defense, all these factors are at work. Therefore, the issue of Taiwan Province Province is the biggest obstacle to Sino-US relations. The greatest interest of the United States in Taiwan Province Province is to maintain the status quo, neither reunification nor independence, to use the issue of Taiwan Province Province to contain the development of China, and to win the greatest interest in cross-strait confrontation. Of course, the United States does not want a real war between the two sides of the Taiwan Province Strait. Once there is a war between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, the United States will face the choice of whether to intervene, which is very difficult anyway. Where will Sino-US relations develop in the future? As long as the above-mentioned basic factors for maintaining Sino-US relations do not change greatly, the foundation of bilateral relations will not be shaken, and the basic structure and framework of Sino-US relations will still be maintained. Of course, contradictions and struggles may be more frequent, and there may even be some repetition and retrogression. However, it is not only in the interests of China but also in the interests of the United States to return to the state of mutual opposition and estrangement before the 1970s.

From a big perspective, there are three possibilities for the development of Sino-US relations. One is to maintain the status quo in bilateral relations, struggle in cooperation and compromise in confrontation. Both sides are rivals and partners, or wander between rivals and partners. Various contradictions, conflicts and troubles frequently appear in the relations between the two countries, showing a considerable degree of fragility, but it will not get out of control. Between the two countries, common interests and opposing interests coexist, and cooperation and conflict coexist. There may be fierce contradictions and frictions on ideological, economic, trade, Taiwan Province Province and strategic issues, and there may even be some repetition and retrogression due to the influence of some major emergencies, but it will not shake the foundation of bilateral relations. Sino-US relations are advancing in difficulties and twists and turns, maintaining a basic development trend. In the near future, from 5 years to 10 years, this possibility is the greatest. Second, the relationship between the two countries has been deteriorating, and the opposing factors are greater than the cooperation factors, returning to the hostile relationship of the opponents. Under the international strategic needs and domestic political pressure of the United States seeking unipolar rule of the world, the American government adopted a containment policy towards China. Or there is a sudden change in the problem of Taiwan Province Province, and the US armed forces are involved; Or the rapid development of Chinese mainland's comprehensive national strength is regarded as a threat and challenge to the interests and authority of the United States, thus triggering an all-round confrontation between China and the United States. This prospect is not in the fundamental interests of both China and the United States, and the price paid is too high. Although there is reason to believe that the two governments will try their best to avoid such an outcome in the near future, with the intensification of the conflict between China and the United States in strategic interests in the future, it is not impossible for China and the United States to have a major conflict in the medium term of 10 ~ 20 years if it is not handled properly. Third, the relations between the two countries have improved in an all-round way, and the factors of cooperation have greatly surpassed the factors of confrontation, and the two countries have established a real cooperative partnership. This prospect cannot be realized in the near future, because the current world strategy of the United States is to maintain the existing superpower status and unipolar pattern and prevent the emergence of global or regional powers that can challenge the United States. However, after China's economic development lasted for several years and its comprehensive national strength was further enhanced, after China took a place in the world structure, and even after the major conflict between China and the United States, China and the United States truly realized their respective interests and common interests, and established a truly stable and normalized strategic partnership on this basis.