If a company shouted the slogan "It is more convenient to add electricity than to refuel", would you shine as an electric car owner? How to do this? The company said: I will change a battery for you in 2 minutes. This is the power exchange mode based on the separation of vehicle and electricity. This is nothing new, the enterprise tried it ten years ago. However, this time, the policy wind changed, and the power exchange mode was on fire again. However, can it become mainstream?
■? Ten-year Transformation of Loyal Wife
Enterprises in the field of power exchange have been acting very frequently recently.
On July 27th, BAIC Group and State Grid Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd. (referred to as "State Grid Electric") reached a strategic cooperation, and the two sides will continue to carry out in-depth cooperation in the field of power exchange. On July 28th, China Southern Power Grid Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Southern Power Grid Electric Vehicle") signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., indicating that replacing heavy trucks with electricity is the key business of cooperation between the two parties.
On July 30th, Changan New Energy established Chongqing Power Exchange Alliance, and formally signed a contract with Aodong New Energy to serve Changan New Energy E-series cars in the mode of power exchange. On August 4th, Japan Softbank Energy and Aodong New Energy reached a strategic investment cooperation, and will cooperate in the fields of power exchange mode and battery recycling.
In addition, Weilai Automobile, which is rumored to be a "crazy fan" on the Internet, is planning to establish a battery management asset company with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. to promote the separation of vehicles and electricity, and on this basis, launch BaaS(Battery? As? Answer? Service, battery as a service) products.
The power exchange mode is also for a while, which is closely related to the policy trend in the first half of the year.
On April 23, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles, stipulating that the price of new energy passenger cars must be less than 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan) before subsidies, but vehicles with electric mode are not included in this regulation. Changing electric vehicles has become an exception under subsidies.
At the two national conferences held in May this year, the word "electricity exchange" was written into the government work report for the first time. In the content of "new infrastructure", "building charging piles" is extended to "adding charging piles, changing power stations and other facilities" On the "Ministerial Channel" of the two sessions, Miao Wei, then Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said, "We will continue to increase the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure and encourage the interconnection of various charging and replacing facilities."
Xin, vice minister of industry and information technology, also called for the adoption of power exchange mode. At the press conference held by the State Council Press Office on July 23, New Guo Bin pointed out that "charging and changing electricity are both ways to supplement the energy of electric vehicles, and each has its own advantages, and each has its own application fields and consumer groups." "Support the innovative development of new technologies, new formats and new models, encourage enterprises to develop new charging and power exchange technologies, and explore the mode application of vehicle-electricity separation to meet different market needs."
In fact, the mode of power exchange is not "new technology, new format and new mode". As early as 2000, Aodong New Energy began to explore the technology of changing electricity, and in 2005, it set up the first experimental station for charging and changing electricity in Lanzhou. In 2008 and 20 10, Aodong New Energy provided power exchange operation services for Beijing Olympic Games, Shanghai World Expo and Guangzhou Asian Games respectively.
The power exchange mode has been tested by the market and can be traced back to about 20 1 1. 20 1 1 On March 8, 2008, at the "Eleventh Five-Year" National Major Scientific and Technological Achievements Exhibition, the State Grid showed the whole process of battery replacement service for Zotye and Haima pure electric vehicles. 20 1 1 April, Zotye Automobile launched the Lang Yue battery replacement model in Hangzhou, and signed an agreement with State Grid to provide battery replacement service by Hangzhou Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of State Grid. Since then, the power exchange mode has entered the stage of commercial operation.
Just after the exhibition, the "battery replacement and plug-in charging dispute" of electric vehicles made headlines in the automotive media. The whole industry is aware of the importance of electric vehicle infrastructure and has a big discussion on the charging technology route. At that time, the industry generally believed that the power exchange mode was worth popularizing, but the development of electric vehicle and battery technology in China was in the primary stage, and the technical standards for charging and replacing facilities had not yet been issued, so it was too early to popularize the power exchange mode.
As for the question of whether the electric vehicle is better to be charged or changed, State Grid, China Putian and charging service enterprises tend to change the electricity, while most automobile enterprises tend to "plug-in" charging route. In 20 1 1 year, the state grid even decided to adopt the commercial operation mode of "mainly replacing electricity, supplemented by plug-in, and unified distribution". Car companies believe that the scale of electric vehicles is insufficient, and the investment in changing power stations is large, making it difficult to make profits. Coupled with the technical problems of batteries, short-term plug-in charging was the most reasonable choice at that time.
In recent years, there are not many enterprises that insist on changing circuit lines, or only a handful of enterprises survive. Better yet, an Israeli company that entered the field of power exchange in 2004? Place, 2065438+closed down in May 2003. Among the domestic third-party operators, only a few enterprises, such as Aodong New Energy, Botan Technology, nine planets Energy, Zhong Da Tongguang and Zhongneng Gaoju, stick to the field of power exchange. Among the power exchange operators with the background of car companies, except Beiqi New Energy, Weilai Automobile and Lifan Automobile, other companies have no greater action in the field of power exchange.
Why is it so difficult for power exchange enterprises? According to industry analysis, high operating costs and few customer resources make it difficult for power exchange operators. In particular, vehicle companies keep a distance from the power exchange mode, which makes it more difficult for power exchange operators. According to the data, better? The construction cost of a single power station in place is as high as 500 thousand dollars, and from beginning to end, only Renault is the main customer.
"Now the government's support for the power exchange mode is becoming more and more obvious. At the same time, the overall annual sales of electric vehicles are promoting the maturity of the power exchange model. Therefore, the voice of the power change mode is now high. " Li Xiaoping, a professor and doctoral supervisor at South China Normal University, said.
■? The big economic account behind the transaction of power and money
Minister Xin's call for electricity exchange mode is mainly based on six aspects: first, the first feature of electricity exchange mode is the separation of vehicles and electricity, which can greatly reduce the cost of car purchase for consumers; Second, the power exchange mode can increase the convenience of consumers' travel; Thirdly, the centralized monitoring, maintenance and management of the battery by the operating company is conducive to prolonging the battery life and improving the safety; Fourth, using the peak-valley electricity price difference to reduce the charging cost; 5. Users can consider changing power according to mileage; Sixth, the power exchange mode can also give birth to new service formats.
The attitude of government departments towards the mode of power exchange has become enthusiastic, and the policy balance has tilted slightly to the end of power exchange. The electric vehicle market has become a large scale, and the technology of power exchange has matured, and the new format spawned by the power exchange model is also worth looking forward to. Moreover, from the positioning point of view, as a supplement to charging piles and charging stations, the power exchange station also has its own survival value. Therefore, as soon as the policy winds change, enterprises entering the market also flock.
According to the survey data of enterprises, in the first half of 2020, the newly added "new energy vehicle for electricity" business enterprises grew rapidly. Up to now, there are 1 1435 enterprises related to the "new energy vehicle for electricity" business in China. In 20 19, the number of newly registered "new energy vehicle for electricity" businesses was only 1335. Compared with last year, the number of registered enterprises related to the "new energy vehicle for electricity" business increased by 804.2% year-on-year.
The power exchange mode does have many advantages, the first is the advantage of car price. According to the separation of vehicle and electricity, a 300,000-400,000 Weilai ES6 is purchased, and the battery rental scheme is nearly 654.38+10,000 cheaper than the whole vehicle purchase. According to Xu Huxiong, executive director of roland berger, the battery leasing model introduced by Weilai is essentially a zero-interest/low-interest financial solution with lower financial cost for users. At the same time, the battery leasing mode of separating car and electricity also reduces the down payment threshold for users to buy cars, thus expanding potential car buyers.
The second is the advantage of the charging experience. Charging stations and charging piles in China have been in a state of scarcity. Even with the increasing number of pile stations, the problem of difficult charging has not been well improved. In addition, the charging time is not dominant, the slow charging is as long as 10 hour, and the fast charging is about half an hour. What if I change the electricity? Replace the battery within 3 minutes, so users don't have to spend boring time in the charging process, let alone worry that the charging pile can't be used and the charging parking space is occupied. Isn't it beautiful?
In terms of new energy, Aodong Power Station has been iterated to the fourth generation since its development in 20 17, and its service capacity has been increased from 288 times/day to 960 times/day, and the power exchange time has been shortened from 5 minutes to 1.5 minutes. If the vehicle needs 3 minutes to refuel, the time for changing electricity is only half of the refueling time. Compared with the charging time, the battery replacement method has obvious advantages.
Xu Huxiong also analyzed the whole industrial chain, and found that the power exchange mode is a supplement to the charging mode in terms of energy supplement, which is beneficial to car companies, consumers and the whole industrial chain. In the use link, the power exchange mode can provide users with fast power exchange and reduce the waiting time for charging; In the second-hand car trading, the battery exchange mode can empower the second-hand car trading in terms of accurate battery evaluation, trade-in, bare car access and battery leasing. In addition, the cascade utilization of batteries can improve the economy and environmental protection of the whole industry, and ensure the best performance of automobile batteries after retirement through battery life cycle management.
■? The power exchange model is in trouble.
There is considerable economic value behind the power exchange industry chain, and the state has gradually given support in policy. However, it will not be smooth sailing for the power exchange mode to move from silence for many years to industrialization.
First of all, it is a big problem to gradually expand the power exchange mode from the operation field to the private car field. In recent years, the power exchange business represented by Aodong New Energy is mainly concentrated in the field of operating vehicles such as taxis. The industry is also mainly optimistic about the prospect of changing electricity in the operating market. In this regard, Li Xiaoping believes that the battery replacement mode is very cost-effective for operating electric vehicles, which saves the time waste caused by long-term charging, and the battery will be safer after professional maintenance.
Not necessarily in the field of private cars. Xu Huxiong told car home that the power exchange mode is suitable for non-stop running vehicles and long-distance running vehicles across urban areas. However, individual car owners have relatively low requirements for continuous driving time and distance, and relying on charging mode can also meet the basic use needs. "Unless there is an advantage in cost, the demand for individual users to change electricity is not so strong at present."
Secondly, the profitability of power exchange mode will be a long-term problem for enterprises. How high is the cost of building a power exchange station? Liu Jun, an auto industry analyst at Northeast Securities, once analyzed the cost of building a station for Weilai Automobile. Calculated by 40 square meters, the land transfer fee is about 6.5438+0.2 million yuan, and the power station construction cost is about 200,000 yuan. Together with the cost of spare battery and labor, the construction and operation cost of a power station is at least 2 million yuan per year. According to such a large-scale capital investment, the price of Weilai single electricity exchange needs to be above 7 12 yuan to achieve breakeven within 8 years.
In the power exchange industry that needs large-scale investment, the path of profit must be scale. Only when the car sales reach a sufficient order of magnitude will the brand form an electricity-for-electricity ecology. Then the problem comes again. Can you achieve scale by relying on only one enterprise? Will it be better for enterprises in the power exchange industry chain to unite? This means that the power exchange industry is likely to fall into a dilemma: it is not systematic to fight alone, and it is difficult to unify the standards of joint attack.
Zeng Yuquan, chairman of contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., raised this question: Will the power battery be standard or non-standard in the next 5- 10 years? Zeng Yuqun believes that power batteries will meet diverse needs according to different application scenarios and positioning. In the scene of operating vehicles, there may be a unified product standard, while different car companies of private cars are unlikely to unify the standard.
Xu Huxiong pointed out that the unification of power battery standards may mean a series of changes in production line, structural group, module and box design for automakers, with high cost and long adjustment period, which will affect the short-term interests of enterprises. It can be seen that the future prospect of power exchange mode is very good, but it is "difficult to do" at present. Whoever can fight this long-term exchange of power with high investment will have a bright future.
Editor's summary:
The prospect of power exchange mode is very bright, but now it faces multiple problems such as scale, standardization and profitability. How to treat it as an enterprise? To bear the "strategic loss". In the short term, it is unrealistic for power exchange enterprises to make quick profits. However, in the long run, the number of power exchanges will increase, so the costs of station construction, labor and land will be amortized, and the marginal cost will gradually decrease. The battery will also be gradually standardized in the process of upgrading the battery replacement scale. To enter the power exchange industry, we should be prepared for a protracted war. At present, power exchange enterprises need to pay attention to users' power exchange experience, cultivate users' habits and enhance users' stickiness through power exchange mode in order to win the future. (Text/car home? Li Zhengguang)