Experts and insiders pointed out that the interest rate of personal mortgage is low at present, and the regulatory authorities have repeatedly reiterated the principle of "housing and not speculating". It is expected that the mortgage interest rate may fluctuate slightly on a stable basis in the future.
The mortgage interest rate has dropped for seven consecutive years.
According to the China Mortgage Market Report released by Rong360 Big Data Research Institute in July 2020, since 2020, the mortgage interest rate has been continuously lowered for seven consecutive months. In July (the data monitoring period is from June 20th to July 17), the average interest rate of the first home loan in China was 5.26%, down 2 basis points from the previous month; The average interest rate of the second home loan was 5.58%, down 2 basis points from the previous month. The average mortgage interest rate in 36 cities dropped by more than 15 basis points compared with the end of last year, among which the mortgage interest rates in Kunming and Suzhou dropped by more than 60 basis points.
Li Wanfu, an analyst with Rong 360, said that LPR has been adjusted several times since the outbreak of the epidemic. Compared with the end of last year, the five-year LPR interest rate has been lowered by 15 basis points, and mortgage interest rates across the country have also been lowered to varying degrees. According to the monitoring data, the average interest rate of the first home loan in China decreased by 28 basis points compared with the end of last year, and the average interest rate of the second home loan decreased by 27 basis points compared with the end of last year, both of which far exceeded the decline of LPR in five years.
In addition to the decline in mortgage interest rates, the process of bank approval and issuance of personal loans has also been significantly accelerated. Taking the Beijing market as an example, the reporter found that the current mainstream interest rate of the first home loan in Beijing is 5.2%. The personal loan account manager of a branch of a city commercial bank told the reporter that "as long as the information is complete, the personal loan can be approved within one week". Not only that, in the past, banks required personal mortgage customers to deposit and buy wealth management products.
In addition, some real estate agents have played the slogan of "lending within seven days". A real estate agent said, "In the past, when the loan amount was tight, there was no need to lend money for half a month or even a month. Now, as long as the house is transferred, the loan can be repaid within one week. "
The future trend is relatively stable
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that from the attitude of real estate market regulation, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly reiterated the principle of "no real estate speculation". From the perspective of monetary policy, the second half of the year will continue to emphasize precise orientation, introduce funds into key areas and weak links, and give greater support to small and micro enterprises and manufacturing industries. The probability of 5-year LPR remains unchanged, and there is still room and possibility for downward adjustment of 1 year LPR, and the overall mortgage interest rate remains relatively stable.
Yan Yuejin, director of Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that although the LPR was not lowered in July, it maintained a low interest rate. This shows that the interest rate policy is certain and generally oriented to effectively serve the real economy. In the second half of the year, with the epidemic prevention work and resumption of production entering a new stage, the space for LPR decline is decreasing, which will also have a more obvious impact on mortgage loans. Generally speaking, the current mortgage interest rate is relatively low. In addition, in view of the tightening of Shenzhen's real estate policy in July, it shows that some cities with overheated housing prices will also face regulation, and the actual mortgage interest rate of such cities may increase slightly.
Li Wanfu believes that in the second half of 2020, the impact of the epidemic on the real estate market has gradually decreased, and there are even signs of overheating. More and more cities have issued policies to tighten the property market. In July alone, six cities including Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo and Shenzhen introduced strict control policies. Although on the surface, most of these severe control measures are due to the rapid rise of housing prices, housing credit measures are also an important part of real estate control. The five-year LPR quotation has not changed for three consecutive months, which should also take into account the factors that avoid stimulating the real estate market. Therefore, it is estimated that the downward trend of mortgage interest rate in a large area in the short term may be difficult to reproduce.
Buyers hold a wait-and-see attitude.
Banking industry insiders said that the shortest repricing period of individual housing loans is one year, which means that once the loan arrives, the mortgage interest rate will not change within one year. Therefore, many property buyers, including Ms. Yang, hold a wait-and-see attitude: after all, even if the interest rate drops by 5 basis points, a mortgage of one or two million yuan can save a lot of money a year.
Some buyers also said that the trend of LPR had little effect on their willingness to purchase houses. Ms. Zhang, who plans to change rooms in the near future, said, "The down payment ratio for the second suite is 60%. For our improved demand, the pressure is still a little big. The trend of mortgage interest rate is not my main consideration. After all, the fluctuation should not be too big. "
In addition, according to the previous requirements of the central bank, the conversion of the existing personal loan pricing benchmark ended in principle on August 3 this year. If there is no conversion before, the bank will automatically adjust to LPR floating interest rate or fixed interest rate, and the specific adjustment criteria will vary from bank to bank. Some banks indicated that if the customer fails to switch the pricing benchmark before August 3 1, the bank will not force the switch, and the loan interest rate will still be implemented according to the original contract.
Wen Bin said that at present, LPR is in a downward trend, but the medium and long-term LPR trend will be affected by many factors, such as changes in the situation, inflation level, employment level and balance of payments level, and it is difficult to predict at present. He suggested that according to his own situation, including loan price, loan term, loan balance and so on. He should comprehensively choose a more suitable interest rate conversion method. He said, "If the previous mortgage interest rate price concessions are strong and the remaining time of monthly payment is long, you can choose a fixed interest rate, which will help lock in the cost of monthly payment and facilitate the family's income and expenditure arrangements. However, if the remaining time of monthly payment is short and the loan balance is not large, once the LPR is reversed, the risk of interest rate fluctuation can be avoided by prepayment, and floating interest rates can be chosen. "