In the bear market, many people think that every time I rebound, I am called a bull market, and I have been actively doing more. Sooner or later, I will be right. If the bull market really comes, you can make a lot of money, so in the early and middle stages of the bear market, there are still many people who think that A shares have soared.
Another is determined by A's trading mechanism. A-shares are a one-way trading mechanism, and you can make money only if the ticket goes up. If you short every day and shout down every day, you won't make any money all year round, unless you are really in the process of a bear market decline, shorting is better than doing it; No matter whether the result is profit or loss, you have tried, and the short seller has no chance to try once. The cruelest way to treat a stockholder is to let him short for a long time!
There are also many stock evaluation experts who watch more markets every day, because most retail investors in the market are in a bear market, and their enthusiasm for watching more is also loved by retail investors. The most famous teacher is Li Daxiao, who shouted out the so-called diamond bottom at 3000 and the baby bottom at 2500. No one knows where the real bottom is.
At present, the markets that can be shorted, such as stock index futures and securities lending, are all prepared for institutions or large households, while retail investors can only struggle in the secondary market to earn the difference. For small fans, only by waiting for the big bull market and the stock price soaring can they make money.
After all, people who watch the stock market are always the biggest crowd in the market. Retail investors come to the market with the dream of getting rich and holding a lucky attitude. In case they make a profit this time, everyone can only do as much as possible. Of course, in the fall of the bull market, the so-called "experts" shouted out the bull market, and retail investors insisted on waiting for the slogan, just to increase everyone's confidence in A shares!
Indeed, many people always think that the stock market will soar. I never thought that the stock market decline would cause much risk. Even at 18, I felt that the stock market would soar. I still think the stock market will soar this year.
At a class reunion, one of our classmates said that this year would be the same bull market as 14- 15. Language is amazing. Asked why he felt this way, he said that with the launch of the science and technology innovation board, the index could not fall, and the top management set an unprecedented tone for the stock market, so the stock market would definitely exceed 15. You know, the person who said this is the general manager of a business department of a brokerage firm! Excluding inducing us to increase funds and trade more, after all, the feelings and relationships between classmates are very good.
So, why do people always think that the stock market will soar? I guess there may be the following reasons:
First, the national financial economy lacks macro-thinking ability. We can't see the dilemma of increasing pressure and problems in the financial and economic situation. I can't understand how these dilemmas are formed and how to resolve them.
Second, there is a lack of understanding of the stock ecology. I didn't know that most companies in the stock market have performance decline, fraud, equity crisis and fraud, as well as internal related transactions and related acquisitions.
Third, innate optimists, even if they lose money for a long time, still fantasize that the stock market will rise one day, and they will earn all the losses in the stock market and make a fortune.
In fact, the stock market ecology has an obvious turning point from 15 to 16. This turning point is that supervision is gradually tightened, capital operation and storytelling are gradually squeezed out, industrial capital is constantly withdrawing from garbage companies, and investor differentiation is becoming more and more serious, that is, withdrawing from garbage companies and entering good companies is gradually increasing. Take Morgan Stanley Capital International Stock Connect and Index Fund as an example. They keep buying Chinese stocks in large quantities, but most of the time they can't reverse the decline of the index and have an impact on market sentiment within a certain structure and time. Why? Because a large number of domestic private equity firms in Public Offering of Fund have too many layouts in Xiaochuang Company, and because of lack of liquidity, they can't quit quickly, so they can only quit constantly, which leads to the increasing scarcity of blue-chip stocks, the shift of the focus of junk stocks and the continuous expansion of groups.
Comparing the index trends of CSI 300, SSE 50 and CSI 1000, the differentiation gap after 16 is huge, and it is gradually expanding, which also illustrates my above logic, that is, the trend of industrial funds withdrawal, and a large number of junk companies privately.
However, people who always think that the stock market will soar lack the perception of the macroeconomic and financial situation, and also lack the deviation between the medium and long-term 50 index and the CSI 1000 index. There is no macro thinking at all, and it still operates frequently, and it is still obsessed with the hype of junk stocks and theme stocks. I still regard the brokerage business department as the god to save the world, but I don't know that they are the biggest harvesters.
Therefore, according to the current situation of mature markets in Hong Kong stocks, South Korea and the United States, whether there will be a bull market in the future is only a bull market of core assets, not a bull market that is all-powerful and raises chickens and dogs to heaven. For example, Tencent's daily turnover can maintain or reach 8- 10% of the total daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks, and the highest daily turnover can reach 20%. Is this exactly the same as the current performance of China Ping An and other companies?
In March and April, I said that the short-term high point of the market confirmed a high probability of falling. Why? Because the rise of chickens and dogs is fully reappeared, the long-term structural differentiation of the market has once again returned to the harsh ecology of 15 years ago. I remember saying at that time, be careful of the 100 drop of the index. At that time, CITIC Construction Investment and PICC Eastern Communications, which led the gains, will have a downward trend (don't be dissatisfied with this, you can go to the Q&A in March-April, not bragging). Once the correct evolution direction of the market swings, the market will switch and fluctuate violently. It will be the same in the future.
Therefore, people who always think that the stock market will rise must recognize the profound changes in the stock market ecology in the future and now, and cannot blindly!
There are always people who think that the stock market will rise sharply, but the market has been falling. This person, "Li Daxiao" is the most obvious.
If you don't consider the time factor, around 2500 is really not suitable for you to short. What is the time factor? Whenever the stock market rises, it may be next year or the year after. Around 2500, 4000 in the morning and evening. Just when the 4000 will come.
So 2500 is the bottom area of the stock market, a region, not the lowest point; So when this area will break away, no one knows, but it will break away, so it is understandable that some people are bullish when they are at the bottom.
If it goes up later and reaches 6000, it will be easy to understand. The bull market doesn't say anything. Didn't 20 15 mean to surpass 6 124? So there were people who were optimistic at the time.
These die-hard cows often lose money in actual combat. It's just that they have their own purposes. For example, in Li Daxiao, they don't rely on the stock market to make money at all, but rely on online celebrities to make money. What can you do?
Although China stock market is short of bulls and bears, A-share investors have been bullish. They always think that the stock market will soar and the bull market will definitely come tomorrow. This spirit of doing more is good. However, if you really need to build a position for a long time after the baptism of a long-term bear market, there are really not many people who may dare to buy more.
Now the problem is coming. Why did A shares fall for three consecutive years? As long as there is a rebound, some people say it is a bull market, and some people call the stock market up by 4000 points? To sum up, there are mainly the following factors: First, even in a bear market, many people think that as long as I call a bull market every time I rebound, I will be cheated one day. What if a bull market comes? I can make a lot of money from it. So in the early and middle stages of the bear market, many people think that the stock market will rise again.
Furthermore, in the A-share market, only by doing more can you make money, and by doing more can you make quick money. If you short every day, there will be nothing in a year, unless you are on the way down in a bear market, shorting is much better than doing more. In most cases, no matter whether the bulls win or lose, at least they give themselves a chance to make money, while the bears are in a daze all day, giving themselves a chance not to stay. Therefore, the cruelest way to treat a stockholder is to let him short for a long time.
Finally, you can only go long in the stock market because there is no short-selling mechanism. At present, short-selling tools such as stock index futures and securities lending are all prepared for institutional investors or large households, and small and medium-sized investors can only obtain spreads in the secondary market. For small and medium investors, I can only make money if I hope for a big bull market and the stock price rises sharply. There are thresholds for participating in stock index futures, securities lending and other businesses, which are not open to small and medium investors.
Why do so many people think that the stock market will soar? Mainly because the stock market inherits people's desire to get rich, people have a fluky psychology. If the stock market is a big bull market, then I just don't make money. So everyone can only do it harder. Plus there is a threshold for shorting, and short positions do not make money. Who wants to do this? Of course, in the bear market decline, stock critics shouted: "The bull market is coming, investors should not go", which also increased investors' confidence in the future stock market. However, the rise and fall of the stock market has its own laws. Not everyone thinks that the stock market will rise as soon as it rises. Even more, everyone thinks that a bull market is coming, and a big bull market will break out this year. Never underestimate the risk of a bear market.
Yesterday, a sentence suddenly popped up in the subject's mind: people who indulge in lust are shallow. This sentence can explain the problem of the subject.
Yesterday, a friend called the author and asked him if the stock he bought should be replenished.
I asked him: why do you want to make up the position;
The friend's answer is: it has fallen so much. (This friend works for Hang Seng Bank in Lu Hua. Position cost 16.9, yesterday's price 13.4 yuan. )
Let me ask you one more question: If you are short now, will you buy this stock? He said: no, from a technical point of view, the daily level has broken through the sorting interval. Now the short position is obvious, and you can't buy it without confirming the reversal signal.
Therefore, this is a typical retail thinking, thinking that the stock market is going up, just because its position is trapped, or it is profitable but hopes to earn more, hoping that the stock market will skyrocket.
Influenced by the desire to make money or the fear of losing money, I have an objective understanding of the stock market.
The stock market has ups and downs, and there are gains and losses in stock trading; This is the simplest truth. The characteristics of China stock market are obvious. The stock market rises and falls like the world we live in has a day and night cycle; It is illogical to fantasize that the stock market will only rise and not fall, that is, to fantasize that it will always be profitable in the stock market.
Recently, the news of US stock market 10 bull market and India 10 bull market came one after another. When the stock market rose to 10, many retail investors were envious of how much money they would make. But don't forget, we are all speculating in the stock market, and the US stock market can be short. In the ten-year upward trend, many people short halfway, and many short sellers are also trapped in the bull market.
It is human nature to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages. It is good for you to watch more in the stock market, so some people are bullish on stocks every day, but the market is falling every day.
Most people who look at stocks are people who make a living from stocks and take stocks as their profession. You know, when the market is bad, if no one stocks, those people will lose their jobs and have no food to eat! Therefore, we leeks or retail investors who have legitimate jobs must not be fooled by them! We worked hard to make money in the industry and give them leeks. Really not worth it! There are also good stocks in theoretical value investment in China stock market, but small companies can't make value investment and don't know when to buy and sell, so most of them are losing money. In fact, the bull market of stocks is a big trap for both retail investors and strangers. If you invest rashly, you will often lose more after you taste a little sweetness! So don't stock up! Don't envy the ups and downs of the stock market! Everyone is looking for the bottom of the current market. In fact, where is the bottom? In the final analysis, these articles have fooled a lot of small stories to some extent and aroused their greed, that is, the relative bottom of a period. If more people don't participate, it will be a cool song.