Strangely, since the crisis called "Great Depression" in 1929-33, there has never been such a large-scale crisis in the western capitalist world. Western economists believe that they put a set of "stabilizers" on the economy through Keynesianism; However, the ghost of crisis still roams the world, frequently causing troubles in the non-western semi-capitalist world, such as Mexico, Argentina and Southeast Asian countries. Argentine economist Raul? Prebisch believes that after World War II, capitalism developed a pattern of "central dependence" around the world, thus transferring the crisis in the central region to the peripheral dependent regions through the relationship between trade and currency. This seems to be the case with the financial crises in Mexico, Argentina and Southeast Asian countries in the past decade. Has the western world exported the crisis to these countries and regions through the "central dependence" model? Yes or no, regardless of it, the unavoidable fact is that "anti-crisis" has become a theme of all mankind. China's integration into the tide of economic globalization is facing more development opportunities, but from another perspective, it is entering a possible crisis. "Anti-crisis" has also become a major theme of China's economy and finance. Looking back on the thrilling crisis in the past century and the "Roosevelt's New Deal" to deal with it, we can't help but learn from China's "anti-crisis" policy in economy and finance.
Second, the Great Depression and its governance
1October 24th, 1929, 10, the most famous stock market crash happened in history, which was called "Black Thursday". Previously, the United States was full of crowing and economic prosperity. /kloc-After the bull market in 0/0, residents are keen to talk about and participate in stock trading activities. In the last three months of summer, the stock of American steel company rose from 165 to 258, and the stock of American general motors soared from 268 to 39 1. In an optimistic investment atmosphere, "everyone should be rich," said the president of General Motors. "We are all shareholders." The finance minister vowed to assure people that "this prosperity will continue." President Hoover even boasted: "On the eve of our decisive victory in the war on poverty, slums are about to disappear from the United States." On September 5, the stock market fluctuated, and babson, an investment consultant with an unremarkable appearance, sang a sad song; But until June 22nd of 10, Fisher, the most prestigious economist and professor of economics at Yale University, still said in the headline of The New York Times: "I think the stock price is still very low." Unfortunately, two days later, the stock market fell from the peak to the bottom overnight, and even the refresh frequency of the automatic display of the stock market could hardly keep up with the falling speed of the stock price figures! At1October 29th 10, the Dow Jones index plummeted, with a drop of 22%, the largest percentage drop in a single day in history. The horrible downward trend of Wall Street's share price didn't stop until June 1 1. By 1932, the Dow Jones index had fallen by 89% compared with the historical peak of 1929. The crisis of the stock market crash directly led to the closure of more than 5,500 banks, the American financial system was on the verge of collapse, and the hard-earned money of millions of Americans for many years was wiped out.
Subsequently, the United States entered the quagmire of economic recession that lasted for four years: overproduction was serious, prices continued to fall, shops closed, more than 86,000 enterprises went bankrupt, and the number of unemployed people soared from 6.5438+0.5 million in the past to more than 6.5438+0.7 million, accounting for more than a quarter of the total working population; The value of agricultural products has fallen to the lowest point, and it is not uncommon for producers to pour milk into the sea and burn grain and cotton in public. GNP dropped sharply from $65.438+00.44 billion when the crisis broke out to $74.2 billion in 654.38+0933, and the overall economic level of the country fell back to 654.38+0965.438+03, and the social economy fell into depression (the proper term "Great Depression" came into being later). People are full of doubts about the future, and some even exclaim that "capitalism has come to an end." Even former President Coolidge sighed four days before his death at the beginning of 1933: "Look around, there is no hope." Always optimistic Franklin? Franklin D. Roosevelt witnessed the sudden collapse of the Bank of Maryland and could not help but sigh: "I wonder if this cardboard house will collapse?" .
After the economic crisis that lasted until 1933, Roosevelt succeeded the troubled Hoover and was elected as the 32nd president of the United States. President Roosevelt, in danger, was lost in thought. He said, "If I fail, I will be the last president of the United States." Although today, government intervention in economic activities is a common macro-control behavior, at that time, it was an event that swept through the traditional political system and academic circles.
For a long time, the American government has pursued a classical economic liberalism of "small government, big society", believing that the government should not interfere in economic activities and act as a "night watchman" in the competition among economic organizations. Henry, who is considered as one of the representatives of American spirit? Thoreau once said with great insight: "People say that' the best government is the one that does the least', but in fact it should be said more thoroughly: the best government is the one that does nothing!" Among all American presidents, it is well documented that this sentence was explicitly declared as the ruling idea. The earliest is the 23rd President * * * and Republican Harrison. This ruling idea of "governing by doing nothing" in economy and the way of governing by doing nothing in politics continued until the Hoover period. At that time, capitalist macroeconomics had not yet formed, and there was no theoretical support for formulating policies.
However, the grim social reality forced the United States to make historic changes, and at that time the United States also needed to provide timely economic preparations for its participation in the war. With a great sense of mission and a high sense of responsibility, President Roosevelt said to the American people in his inaugural speech: "I firmly believe that the only thing we are afraid of is fear itself!" Then, he devoted himself to the political and economic reform of this huge country. This history of American economic reform was called "Roosevelt's New Deal" by later generations. The main contents of the New Deal can be summarized by "3R", that is, restoration, relief and reform.
In the first stage of Roosevelt's New Deal, the government rectified the financial system and fully restored the lubricating role of money in regulating the economy. At the same time, help employment, increase consumption, stimulate production and achieve balanced development.
President Roosevelt believes that the entire commercial production chain almost depends on the stock market to maintain its normal operation, and the * * * nature of profit-seeking speculation makes people keen on stock trading. In the absence of effective supervision and slow response by regulators, the free market mechanism cannot automatically balance the supply and demand of the stock market, and speculators, brokers and financiers conspire to manipulate the stock price, resulting in the illusion that the stock price is artificially high. Since the Great Depression was triggered by the financial crisis triggered by the crazy stock market crash, the New Deal must start with rectifying the financial system and restore national confidence as soon as possible. "Extraordinary times should be the law of extraordinary times." His initial measures were to let the fast-moving federal government replace the Federal Reserve as soon as possible, assume the financial supervision function, activate cash flow and "make money turn". Next, from March 9th, 1933 to June, 16, the Roosevelt administration persuaded Congress to pass more than 70 New Deal bills, among which 15 important laws were enacted, and financial-related legislation accounted for13. By implementing a series of economic and financial measures aimed at overcoming the crisis, maintaining bank credit, devaluing the US dollar, maintaining agricultural products prices and setting agreed prices to reduce competition among enterprises, we are committed to economic revival, which is known as the "100-day New Deal" in history.
On the one hand, through the reconstruction and transformation of the financial system, the overall recovery of the national economy is guaranteed.
1when Roosevelt was sworn in on March 4, 933, almost no banks in the country were still open, and checks could not be cashed in Washington. He immediately ordered the national banks to suspend business for three days, which is equivalent to "suspending payment" to prevent the collapse of the domestic banking system. Public opinion commented on this action as "a lightning bolt in the dark sky". On March 9, the Bank Emergency Relief Act was passed, and a system of separate examination and licensing was adopted to allow solvent banks to resume business as soon as possible. From March 13 to March 15, 1477 1 banks were allowed to reopen.
At the same time, the Roosevelt administration took one major measure after another to strengthen the gold reserve. March 10, announcing the cessation of gold export; On April 5, private deposit of gold and gold securities was prohibited, and US dollar bills stopped being exchanged for gold; On April 19, the gold standard was abandoned; On June 5, the public and private debts were abolished and paid in gold.
Then the Securities and Exchange Commission was established through the Federal Securities Law, which integrates quasi-legislative power, law enforcement power and quasi-judicial power to comprehensively supervise the securities issuance, stock exchanges, securities companies and investment companies throughout the country. Its authority lies in its independence from the general legislative, judicial and administrative departments, and the president generally cannot interfere with its exercise of functions and powers.
Pass glass-steagall act (also known as 1933 banking law). Set up the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to provide guarantee for bank deposits below $50,000, so as to avoid the public run again; At the same time, the bill strictly restricts the business scope of financial institutions and may not engage in commercial banking and investment banking at the same time. It is because of this bill that Morgan Bank has to split in two. This separation pattern didn't come to an end until the US Congress passed the Financial Services Modernization Act 1999 more than 60 years later.
1934 65438+1October 10 announced the issuance of US$ 3 billion banknotes guaranteed by state securities, which contributed to the depreciation of the US dollar by 40.94%. Through the depreciation of the dollar, the external competitiveness of American goods has been strengthened.
The above measures have played an important role in stabilizing the situation and dredging the financial system, the blood circulation system of the national economy.
The Roosevelt administration also urged Congress to pass the Agricultural Adjustment Law and the National Industrial Recovery Law in order to restore domestic production as soon as possible. These two laws have formulated the rules of "fair competition" that commercial subjects abide by, and stipulated the scale, price and sales scope of each enterprise, thus limiting monopoly; Setting minimum wages and maximum working hours for workers has reduced and eased the tension between labor and capital. After obtaining the reluctant support of large enterprises, Roosevelt then tried his best to win the support of small and medium-sized business owners. He thinks it is very important for large enterprises to accept the industrial revival law. "The fruitful field still lies in small employers. Their contribution is that each small enterprise will provide new employment opportunities for 1 to 10 people. These small employers are actually an extremely important part of the country's backbone, and the success or failure of the New Deal plan depends largely on them. " At the same time, the Roosevelt administration strengthened its foreign political and economic activities and changed the image of America as an "isolated" liberal country in the world.
On the other hand, through government relief work and providing employment opportunities to increase national income and stimulate the balance between consumption and production; While rallying and stabilizing people's hearts, it has also strengthened domestic infrastructure.
In the early days of Roosevelt's administration,170,000 unemployed people all depended on the help and charity of the state government, the municipal government and private charities to make a living. There is a serious shortage of living materials, and property and violent crimes have intensified. He believes that only the federal government can solve this complex and high-risk social problem.
1933 In May, the Roosevelt administration passed the Federal Emergency Relief Law and established the Federal Emergency Relief Bureau, which was responsible for the planning, collection, management and operation of relief materials, rationally dividing the use ratio between the federal government and the states, quickly distributing various relief materials to the states, and formulating preferential policies to encourage local governments to directly help the poor and the unemployed.
In order to give the unemployed a chance of self-reliance and self-esteem, in the second year, simple relief was changed to "work for relief". There are various relief agencies in China, which are roughly divided into two systems: the Ministry of Public Works (the government has allocated more than 4 billion US dollars to build long-term projects) and the Ministry of Civil Engineering (the investment is nearly 6,543.80 billion US dollars, mainly civil engineering) to provide social services for the unemployed. By the eve of World War II, the total number of employees reached 23 million, accounting for more than 1/2 of the total labor force in China. This has not only created employment opportunities for technicians, unskilled workers and construction workers, but also provided various jobs for thousands of unemployed craftsmen. The federal government spent $654.38+08 billion on various projects and a small amount of direct relief, and built nearly 654.38+0000 airports, more than 654.38+02000 stadiums, and more than 800 school buildings and hospitals.
In the second stage of the New Deal, the Roosevelt administration carried out a series of reforms involving all levels on the basis of comprehensively reviving the economy, which laid a solid foundation for establishing a welfare society and a democratic regime.
At the beginning of 1935, on the basis of the first stage of the New Deal, the Roosevelt administration passed special laws such as the Social Insurance Law, the National Labor Relations Law, and the Public Utilities Law. On June 4th, 1938, the fair labor standards act (also known as the Law on Wages and Working Hours) was passed to protect workers' rights and interests.
In order to solve the problem of federal funds in the social insurance system, the Roosevelt administration implemented a progressive tax rate based on income and assets for the first time: natural person's net income above $50,000 and inheritance above $40,000 are taxed at 3 1%, and inheritance above $5 million is taxed at 75%; In the past, corporate tax was always levied at 13.75%. However, according to the tax law 1935, the tax rate of companies with incomes below $50,000 is reduced to 12.5%, and the tax rate of companies with incomes above $50,000 is increased to 15%.
These laws reflect the strong wishes of the general public and are welcomed and praised by the overwhelming majority of people in China. They also gave trade unions and business owners bargaining power.
The implementation of Roosevelt's New Deal was very successful. Since 1935, almost all economic indicators in the United States have steadily picked up; At the end of 1936, the total industrial output of the United States exceeded the annual average level before the crisis, and agricultural production also recovered greatly. By 1939, the gross national product had increased to $204.9 billion, and the number of unemployed people had decreased to 8 million, which restored people's confidence in the capitalist state system.
This is a movement to improve the capitalist system. In the process of rectifying the crisis, Roosevelt abandoned the traditional principles of classical liberalism, used state power to intervene in the economy at the macro level, and promoted the great adjustment of property rights relations, production methods and production management systems at the micro level.
The content of the New Deal promoted the maturity of Keynesianism, and the practice of the New Deal promoted the theorization and systematization of Keynesian government's intervention in the economy. It can be said that Roosevelt's New Deal is actually the first large-scale creative rehearsal of Keynes's income and employment theory in the history of the world.
Of course, some measures of Roosevelt's New Deal also have shortcomings. Every time, it became the reason for political enemies to attack, and the class whose interests were damaged during the implementation of the New Deal also resisted and vilified it. Even the Industrial Recovery Act and two other bills, which were important in the early days of the New Deal, were ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court two years later. Other aspects, such as interest rate restrictions on the banking industry, can not completely stop the vicious competition between banks, nor can they avoid non-price competition means other than interest rates. This also shows that President Roosevelt's understanding of full employment, monetary policy, deficit budget and dynamic fiscal budget balance was superficial at that time, and he did not fully understand the true meaning of "only spending money can overcome the Great Depression".
Keynesianism believes that since production and employment are determined by effective demand, as long as products can be sold, they can be increased. When the total social demand decreases due to the decline of national income, a crisis may occur. It advocates that the state directly intervenes in the economy, regulates production, increases investment, stimulates consumption and ensures full employment. Before this theory, Roosevelt's New Deal was actually this idea. However, due to lack of theoretical support and confidence, Roosevelt was tied behind. For example, on the issue of deficit finance, Roosevelt only dared to cautiously break through the creed of "annual balance of fiscal budget" in classical economics, but did not dare to explicitly say that deficit finance is of course a conventional policy.
After the New Deal, with the decrease of competitors and total social output, monopoly groups have expanded their control over resource allocation, and the government's regulatory function has gradually declined. Especially in the 1960s and early 1970s, the "control failure", "stagflation", inflation, Vietnam War, oil crisis and the subsequent continued downturn in the stock market once again made Americans feel confused about the economic prospects. One writer wrote: "If greed and fear are the only two kinds of psychology on Wall Street, then I think it's time to put in a good word for greed."
Roosevelt's New Deal was the first and biggest anti-crisis case of the 20th century, and it should be said that it was successful. We admit that the New Deal eased the serious damage of the Great Depression to the American economy and promoted the recovery of social productive forces. While safeguarding the interests of the bourgeoisie, we should also pay attention to improving the economic and social status of the middle and lower classes; It also attacked extremist organizations in the United States, stabilized capitalist democracy, and avoided the fierce social unrest in the United States during the crisis. The "welfare state" it created is still an important means for monopoly capital to adjust the contradiction between labor and capital and consolidate capital rule. Many policies and laws of the New Deal also laid a solid institutional framework for building a modern American political and economic system. The New Deal laid a material foundation for the United States to invest in World War II and the economic take-off of post-war capitalist countries, and created more space for the development of capitalist productive forces. After the war, eight economic crises broke out in the United States. Although the scale and destructiveness did not reach the level of the Great Depression, successive American governments used Keynesian economic theory and followed Roosevelt's New Deal, and adopted different policies of state intervention in the economy. Other western capitalist countries have also taken measures similar to the "New Deal" to avoid or survive the economic crisis and develop the economy.
So far, there are 43 presidents in the United States, but few are really remembered by Americans. Franklin? Roosevelt was a president who made great contributions to the United States. His first contribution was the New Deal mentioned above. Americans think he is Abraham? The most memorable president since Lincoln.