1. 1 auspicious wine faucet, one tree with three fragrances.
The first state-owned liquor enterprise, a tree with three fragrances and five flowers. Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Brewing (Group) Co., Ltd. was established in June 1996 1 1. Its predecessor was Hengshui Laobaigan Distillery, which was built in June 1946 and was established by the government at that time. In 2002, the company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, becoming the only listed company in the brewing industry in Hebei Province.
On 20 18, the company acquired Fenglian Liquor, and incorporated Bancheng Shaoguo Liquor, Anhui Wangwen Distillery, Hunan Wuling Liquor and Shandong Kongfujia Liquor into its subsidiaries through Fenglian Liquor. Since then, "one tree and three fragrances" and Hengshui Laobai dry wine, Wang Wen winery, Bancheng Shaoguo wine, Wuling wine and Kongfujia wine have been realized.
1.2 Promote equity incentives and enhance organizational vitality
The ownership structure of the company is clear, and the actual controller is Hengshui Finance Bureau.
Laobaigan Group holds 25.63% equity of listed companies, and Hengshui Finance Bureau holds 0/00% equity of Laobaigan Group/KLOC-through Hengshui Construction Investment Group, which is the actual controller of listed companies. The listed company holds 0/00% equity of Fenglian Liquor/KLOC, and its four subsidiaries operate four brands: Wenwang Distillery, Kongfujia Liquor, Bancheng Shaoguo Liquor and Wuling Liquor.
Executives and per capita salaries are at a low level in the industry, and the implementation of equity incentives enhances organizational vitality.
The salary of the company's chairman and general manager is 202 1 300,000 yuan and 280,000 yuan respectively, and the company's per capita salary is 202 1.42 million yuan, both of which are at a low level among liquor listed companies. The lack of enthusiasm of management and employees restricts the enthusiasm and organizational vitality of employees.
In April 2022, the company passed the equity incentive plan and granted restricted shares on May 19. Equity incentive covers 209 directors, senior managers, leaders of subsidiaries, core employees of headquarters and subsidiaries, and the incentive price is 10.34 yuan/share. The introduction of this equity incentive will help improve the company's past situation of low incentive level and lack of vitality, and enhance the enthusiasm of employees.
1.3 There is still room for improvement in profits, and contractual liabilities show flexibility.
Since listing, the income scale has continued to expand, and in recent years, the adjustment of product structure has led to a slowdown in growth. From 2002 to 20 17, the company's revenue achieved steady growth, from 263 million yuan to 2.535 billion yuan, achieving 10 times growth. On 20 18, the company completed the acquisition of Fenglian liquor. In that year, the operating income increased by 4 1.34%, and the net profit returned to the mother increased by 1 14.26%. From 20 18 to 202 1, the company implemented the product upgrading strategy and cut down some low-end product lines, which led to a slowdown in the growth of revenue and profit scale.
In the future, with the rationalization of the company's product line and the heavy volume of core products, it is expected to return to the high growth track.
Laobaigan series contributed more than half of the income and gross profit, and Wuling wine gross profit accounted for more than income.
Judging from the company's income and gross profit structure, Hengshui Laobaigan contributed more than half of the income and gross profit, which is the main source of the company's income and profit.
Since 20 18, the revenue share of the other four brands has also increased year by year. Among them, Wuling Liquor has a high gross profit margin, accounting for 65,438+03% of revenue and 65,438+06% of gross profit, making it the second largest gross profit contribution point of the company.
Structural upgrading pushes up gross profit margin, while expenses depress net interest rate.
In the past ten years, the company's gross profit margin has continued to grow, from 37% in 2009 to 67% in 202 1.
From 20 18, the company accelerated the layout of high-end price bands, reduced the number of products and improved the product structure. From 20 18 to 202 1, the overall gross profit margin further increased by 8.77pct.
From the perspective of net interest rate, the company's net interest rate has been at a low level, and the net interest rate of 202 1 year is only 9.65%, mainly because the company's sales expense rate continues to be at a high level.
In recent years, the company's sales expense ratio has been maintained at around 30%. Among the expenses, advertising and marketing expenses account for a relatively high proportion. During the period of 20 17-202 1 year, the company's sales expenses were 8 1 1 billion yuan, 964 million yuan,1.40 million yuan and 65,438 yuan respectively. Among them, advertising expenses and marketing expenses were 379 million yuan, 335 million yuan, 345 million yuan, 436 million yuan and 41/kloc-0 million yuan, accounting for 46.73%, 34.75%, 33.0/7% and 42.66% respectively.
Contract liabilities continue to rise, and the flexibility of performance release can be expected.
As a reservoir of income, contractual liabilities and accounts received in advance can reflect the elasticity of future income and performance release. The company's contractual liabilities (accounts received in advance) increased for five consecutive quarters. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, the company's contractual liabilities were about 2 billion, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rate of about 60%, both at the highest level in history. The repayment through the reaction channel is positive, and the future profit release and the realization of the annual target are guaranteed.
1.4 One wine accounts for one province, and the regional layout is optimized.
One wine accounts for one province and takes root in the regional market. The five brands of the company are distributed in Hebei, Shandong, Anhui and Hunan provinces, among which Hengshui Laobaigan and Bancheng Shaoguo Liquor occupy the Hebei market, Kongfujia Liquor occupies Shandong, Wenwang Distillery occupies Anhui and Wuling Liquor occupies Hunan market. The company's marketing strategy is that one wine occupies one province, and each brand focuses on taking root in the local market, and does not expand nationwide, covering North China and Central South with multiple brands.
Judging from the company's several regional markets, it is a big liquor province.
Shandong liquor production ranks among the top three in China, and Anhui, Hunan and Hebei are also provinces with large production and consumption. Hebei and Shandong are located in the north, with generous drinking habits and large population provinces; There are many local liquor enterprises in Anhui and Hunan, and the consumption of liquor is large. The consumption scale is expected to be around 35 billion and 25 billion.
Hengshui Laobaigan and Wuling Liquor are the key points of development and have great potential.
In 20021year, the company adopted the strategy of shrinking and streamlining the dealer system, greatly reduced the number of dealers, optimized the sales system, terminated cooperation with dealers who did not meet the performance appraisal conditions, and promoted the survival of the fittest. In terms of brand, among the company's five brands, Hengshui Laobaigan and Hunan Wuling Liquor are expected to become the focus of future development, while the other three brands, Bancheng Shaoguo Liquor, Kongfujia Liquor and Wenwanggong Liquor, are expected to focus on stabilizing the basic market, promoting structural upgrading and achieving stable growth.
2. 1 products gradually focused, and the structure was obviously upgraded.
The brand has a long history, original flavor and fragrance.
Hengshui Laobai dry wine has a long history, which can be traced back to the Han Dynasty according to written records. It was famous in the Tang Dynasty and officially named in the Ming Dynasty. It is known as "mellow and elegant, sweet and rich".
19 15 won the first gold medal of Panama World Expo, and was recognized as the first batch of Chinese time-honored brands after the founding of the People's Republic of China, which was listed as "national intangible cultural heritage". Hengshui Laobai Dry Wine has created "Laobai Dry Flavor" with its unique ecological environment and unique brewing technology.
The North China Plain, where the company is located, is rich in crops, unique in microbial circle and superior in climatic conditions. The water quality of lake water is pure, sweet, extremely low hardness and contains trace metal ions, which can promote saccharification and fermentation of brewing raw materials. In the brewing process, the ancient urn is used for brewing, the fermentation temperature is constant, the wine body is purer, the wine molecules are smaller, and the fusel oil content is extremely low.
The old white dry liquor brewed by this method is known as "three families are drunk next door, and ten perfumes open the altar", and it has the characteristic of "dry mouth after drinking". In 2004, the original flavor of Laobaigan was officially listed as the 11th flavor type of China liquor.
Dual-brand operation, focusing on four series.
Hengshui Laobaigan adopts a dual-brand strategy, and currently operates two brands: Hengshui Laobaigan and Shibajiang. The brands of Hengshui Laobaigan are 19 15, Gufa, Wuxing, Ice Series, Blue and White Series, Eighteen Rivers with Grade A and Diamond Series. Comparatively speaking, the brand of Shibajiang is relatively simple, and both brands focus on the market in Hebei Province.
In 20 17, the company began to reduce the product line and greatly reduced the low-end products. After several years of combing and operation, the company's product matrix has gradually become clear, focusing on four series of products, namely Hengshui Laobaigan 19 15, Hengshui Laobaigan ancient method, Grade A of 18th Brewery and Hengshui Laobaigan ice series, covering the low-end price range, and promoting the high-end, sub-high-end and mass price range respectively.
Hengshui Laobaigan 19 15 series: 19 15 is a high-end product of more than 1,000 yuan, and it is also a brand image product of Laobaigan. There are three specifications of 39 degrees, 53.9 degrees and 67 degrees, and the prices are 1688 yuan, 2,488 yuan and 3,288 yuan respectively. Through years of vigorous promotion, 19 15 has gradually become the head brand in Hebei, and the exit of 19 15 will increase by more than 90% in 2020.
According to Jiu Shuo's report, at the 20021Hengshui Laobaigan Marketing Development Conference, the company predicted that by 2024 19 15, the sales would exceed 10 billion yuan.
Hengshui Laobaigan Ancient Law Series: The ancient law series is positioned at the second high end and above, including 30-year ancient law and 20-year ancient law, focusing on the market in Hebei Province.
XVIII Winery Grade A Series: XVIII Winery Grade A is positioned at the second high-end and above, and its main products are Grade A 20 and Grade A 15, among which Grade A 20 is positioned at the high-end price segment above 800 yuan and Grade A 15 is positioned at the second high-end price segment of 300-500 yuan, which is the company's main product. According to Hengshui Laobaigan 202 1 Marketing Development Conference, the growth rate of two single products, A 20/ 15, exceeds 30%, and it is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in 2023.
Hengshui Laobai dry ice series: Ice series is a light bottle wine product for the public, including ice peaks and glaciers. Ice series, as a fashion for positioning light bottles of wine, focuses on young people in marketing promotion and adopts a series of innovative promotion strategies, such as food and wine, as well as activities such as liquor and aging. Focus on the ice series with the price below 100 yuan to form an effective supplement to high-end products and participate in the competition of high-speed light bottle wine.
Products do less and prices do higher, and structural upgrading drives 202 1 revenue to usher in an inflection point.
After 20 17, Laobaigan actively adjusted the product layout, cut off the low-end products, and focused on the middle and high-end products. This action made the sales of Laobaigan brand decline, from 58,320 tons in 2065,438+06 to 29,605 tons in 2026,5438+0. The decline in sales temporarily affected the income scale of Laobaigan, from 2.2 billion yuan in 20 17 to 2 billion yuan in 2020. However, the structural upgrading has driven the price of Laobaigan dry ton to continue to rise, gradually making up for the decline in sales. The price of a ton rose from 35,400 yuan/ton in 20 16 to 712,000 yuan/ton in 202 1 0/%.
Driven by this, the brand income of Laobaigan reached an inflection point in 202 1 year, reaching 2 1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7 1%.
2.2 Brand strategy upgrade, marketing focus on high-end.
Relocate brand strategy, hold high and fight high, and enhance image. Looking back on the brand promotion of Laobaigan in the past, it has undergone three changes:
The tough guy route of "drinking masculinity" and highlighting "masculinity": In 2008, Laobaigan hired Hu Jun as the spokesperson to launch the promotional film "Hengshui Laobaigan, drinking masculinity", and the brand image gradually became clear. Drinking Laobaigan wine is masculinity. 20 1 1 added advertising language to further highlight the brand positioning of "masculinity".
"White drink, no head" conforms to the trend of comfortable drinking: from 2065438 to September 2007, Hengshui Laobaigan held a new strategy conference in Beijing, shouting the new slogan of "white drink, no head", conforming to the trend of comfortable drinking in the market. The slogan "No Head" replaces the old slogan that has been used for nearly 10 years, and borrows the consumer cognition of "Good wine is not on the head" to highlight the quality and enhance the brand.
Brand image upgrade of "First-class Gold Award, Great Country Quality": In June, 2022, Hengshui Laobaigan brand strategy upgrade conference was held, at which a brand-new brand upgrade strategic positioning of "First-class Gold Award, Great Country Quality" was released, and the brand positioning was fully upgraded again.
On 20 18 and 20 19, Laobaigan used the "First-class Medal" of Panama Expo to promote himself and put out the slogan "19 15 Panama Expo gold medal liquor, not maotai-flavor liquor, but Laobaigan". For the company, the first-class gold medal of Panama World Expo 19 15 is a historical honor, and it is also the starting point and motivation for a new round of brand upgrading.
The sales system is refined, and the marketing activities focus on high-end routes. The company works well in organizational structure. In recent years, the public wine division, high-end wine division and 18 wine division have been established. The high-end liquor division mainly deals in 19 15, ancient method 20/30 and grade A 15/20, and the main consumption scene is business banquets; The Volkswagen Liquor Division mainly deals in blue and white series products, with the price of Volkswagen Liquor as the main price, and the consumption scene is self-drinking; Winemakers are positioned in the middle and high end, and the mainstream price is between 100-300 yuan. The main consumption scene is business dinner.
In marketing activities, the company actively invested a lot of resources, organized wine culture festivals, ice and snow caravans and other activities, sponsored wine for dinner in Boao Forum, and made frequent appearances by strengthening interaction and communication with consumers, serving the high-end image building. Take 20 19 as an example. In that year, Laobai Dry Wine held 5 108 high-end tasting sessions, 27,300 banquets and sponsored 67 meetings.
2.3 Hebei brand regime, the price band is still upgrading.
Brand differentiation in Hebei market, with foreign brands occupying 80% of the market. The Hebei market where Laobaigan is located is a big province of liquor consumption. According to grassroots research, the overall scale of liquor market is around 20 billion.
In terms of competition pattern, it is a semi-open market with strong inclusiveness and many brands from other provinces. In particular, domestic first-line liquor brands such as Maotai, Jiannanchun, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Langjiu, Yanghe and Gu Jing Winery have a good development momentum in Hebei market. In the overall sales scale, the production capacity of local brands accounts for less than 20%, and the remaining 80% market is divided by other provinces.
Local brands are distributed in the north, middle and south regions, and each region has a strong wine enterprise and brand division. In the north, there are mountain village wine, half-cooked pots and so on. There are Shilixiang and Baoding in the middle, and strong brands such as Laobaigan, Nikeng and Congtai in the south.
In terms of price, Hebei market presents a competitive pattern of "two major brands outside the province occupy positions and gradually shrink". In the high-end market, Maotai, Wuliangye, Jiannanchun and other national famous wines have an advantage. The second high-end market is the watershed between national famous wines and local brands; The mid-end market is the battlefield for local wine and provincial wine, and the competition between local brands is fierce; In the mainstream price segment, the real estate wine owners are all low-end, and the low-end wine has a large number of Guoguang bottles, such as the old village head and Niulanshan.
Hebei's market price belt has been upgraded, and Laobaigan has contracted key Hebei in the province.
At present, the mainstream consumption price of Hebei liquor is concentrated in the middle and low-priced areas, mainly low-grade Luzhou-flavor liquor.
The per capita disposable income in Hebei Province is low, and the mainstream consumer price band is also low, mainly distributed in two types. One is a stall represented by light bottles of wine, and the mainstream price is concentrated in 10-25 yuan, while the other is represented by boxed wine, and the mainstream price is concentrated in 100-300 yuan.
In recent two years, with the upgrading of consumption in Hebei Province and the adjustment of product structure of liquor enterprises, the mainstream consumer price belt in Hebei Province is rising above 300 yuan.
Hengshui Laobaigan series is mainly sold in Hebei Province. In recent years, it is also shrinking, focusing on the provincial market. After 20 19, the proportion in the province has gradually increased, which is expected to benefit from the trend of price belt upgrading in Hebei.
3. 1 17 famous wine, changed hands six times and finally entered Laobaigan.
As one of 17 famous wines, Sansheng Maotai is a much-told story.
1952, Wuling Liquor was built on the basis of the old winery brewed by Cuipo Liquor in Changde Distillery. 1957 was officially named Changde Distillery. From 65438 to 0972, Wuling wine engineers independently innovated and developed the unique style of Maotai-flavor Wuling wine, which was "delicious, pure, soft, relaxed, healthy and elegant". During the period of 1989, Wuling liquor won the national quality gold medal with the highest score at the fifth national wine tasting, ranking among the national 17 famous liquors, and Wuling liquor became one of the three maotai-flavor liquors, thus ending the history that there was no "China Famous Liquor" in Hunan Province.
Looking back at the history of Wuling liquor, there is a story of "three wins in Maotai".
198 1 year held a national liquor quality on-site meeting, in which both maotai and Wuling liquor participated. In the final appraisal, Wuling Liquor won the first place with a score of 0.54 points higher than that of Maotai Liquor, which is the first time in the history of Wuling Liquor to beat Maotai Liquor. Wuling Liquor scored more than Maotai in the 5th National Tasting 1988, and won the title of China Famous Wine and the National Quality Gold Award, beating Maotai to get the first place, which is the second time to surpass Maotai. On 20 15, Wuling Liquor held a blind test of liquor quality for ten thousand people. In the end, Wuling liquor surpassed Maotai for the third time in history with the support rate of 6 1%.
After six ups and downs, it changed hands several times, and it was finally taken over by tempting people.
In 1980s, Wuling Brewery was separated from Changde Winery and became Changde Wuling Winery. 1990 Changde municipal government decided to package Wuling distillery, Deshan Daqu distillery, alcohol factory and beverage factory into the unified management of Changde Brewing Industry Group Company.
During the period of 1997, Changde Brewing Group closed down, and Wuling Winery resumed its independent operation, which also missed the first round of vigorous development of liquor industry.
1998, Wuling Liquor cooperated with Hunan Xiangquan Group to establish "Hunan Xiangquan Group Wuling Liquor Co., Ltd.". Two years later, Changde Grain and Oil Corporation acquired shares of Xiangquan Group, and Wuling Liquor changed hands for the third time.
In 2004, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. purchased 60% equity of Wuling Liquor at a price of150,000 yuan, and then held 80% equity of Wuling Liquor by increasing its holdings.
20 1 1, Fenglian Liquor, a subsidiary of Legend Holdings, is wholly-owned by Wuling Liquor. After that, the liquor industry entered a period of adjustment, and Fenglian's efforts in liquor business had little effect.
In 20 17, Laobaigan acquired Fenglian Liquor and packaged four liquor companies under Fenglian, including Wuling Liquor, which was the sixth time that Wuling Liquor changed hands.
3.2 Focus on high-end Maotai-flavor liquor, and increase in volume and price will help growth.
Wuling liquor is brewed by traditional maotai-flavor brewing technology. Wuling liquor takes glutinous red sorghum planted in southern Sichuan as raw material, uses wheat to cultivate high-temperature koji, and uses the bottom of Shibi mud cellar as fermentation pool. A year is a production cycle, which is divided into two times of grain feeding, nine times of cooking, eight times of fermentation and seven times of wine taking. Taking "four highs and three highs" as the essence of the production process, the original wine was produced by solid-state fermentation and solid-state distillation according to the sauce flavor, mellow flavor and cellar bottom flavor. It has the elegant characteristics of "light yellow color, outstanding sauce flavor, elegant and delicate taste, mellow and refreshing, clean aftertaste, long aftertaste, and fragrant after drinking".
Wuling liquor is mainly high-end Maotai-flavor liquor with a price of more than 1,000 yuan, and the volume and price have risen in recent years.
Wuling liquor includes Maotai-flavor series, Geek series, Qingxiang series, and Dongting Spring series with strong aroma. Sauce series is Wuling's main product series, including Marshal Wuling, Sauce Wuling, Sauce Wuling, Sauce Wuling, Sauce Wuling and King Wuling.
Geek series includes craftsmanship, amber and other products, and the positioning is also in the price band of more than 1,000 yuan. It is a high-end product for personal tailor. Fragrance series is a low-end brand, which is sold online. Dongting spring scenery is a Luzhou-flavor product of Wuling wine, which is relatively rare at present.
In recent years, the sales volume and average price of Wuling wine have increased steadily, and the rise in volume and price has driven the income scale of Wuling wine to increase by 20 15-202 1 by 30.83%.
3.3 Original short-chain direct sales, strong control over the terminal.
After the Internet veteran came to power, Wuling Liquor began to turn to short-chain direct selling mode.
In 20 15, Pu, who worked in Lenovo 15, volunteered to take over as the chairman of Wuling Liquor Industry and began to carry out drastic reforms in Wuling Liquor Industry.
In 20 15, Wuling Liquor cancelled Changsha office and dismissed all 7 1 sales staff outside the district. All 92 large merchants outside Changde District were cut down, contracted back to Changde, and directly signed the local terminal store in Changde1005; The number of products has been reduced from 43 to 7.
The channel mode of Wuling liquor has changed from the traditional distribution mode to the terminal-oriented "short chain" direct selling mode.
The traditional liquor industry is often characterized by large production, large dissemination and large circulation. It relies on "big merchants" to get goods directly from manufacturers and then wholesale them to sales terminals. The "short chain" model of Wuling Liquor adheres to the internet thinking of "who is closest to consumers, who is the most valuable", and changes the multi-chain and multi-link supply chain from a winery to directly facing the consumer terminals-stores and consumers.
In this mode, the circulation of products is reduced, the control ability of the winery to the terminal is effectively strengthened, the whole price control and inventory supervision can be better implemented, and the price jump behavior is greatly reduced.
In the two years of 20 16 and 20 17, the short-chain model of Wuling wine came into effect at the end of 20 17, and Wuling wine began to step on the right track on 20 18, and entered Changsha to open up the market.
The proportion of direct sales and the number of terminals have greatly increased, and the number of single terminals has improved the display control ability.
After the channel reform began, from the third quarter of 20 15 to 20 17, the number of distributors of Wuling Liquor in Hunan Province decreased from 39 to 8, and the number of distributors outside the province decreased from 10 to 2, and the proportion of direct sales increased rapidly from 67% to over 92%, basically completing the transformation of distributors and the establishment of direct sales model.
In terms of the number of terminals, from 20 18 to 2020, the number of Wuling liquor terminals will increase from more than 6,000 to more than 8,000, showing the company's strong terminal control ability.
3.4 Hunan sauce wine expansion, homeopathic expansion for the long term.
The consumption atmosphere of Hunan Maotai-flavor wine has improved, and Wuling is the first brand of Maotai-flavor wine in Hunan. Hunan province, where Wuling is located, is a big liquor province. The former Shaoyang Winery, Yan Hui Gaofeng Winery, Xiangquan Winery, Baisha Winery and Changde Winery are famous all over the country.
At the same time, Hunan is not only the traditional main producing area of Chishui River basin and Sichuan-style producing area, but also the producing area of Maotai-flavor wine. At present, there are nearly 10 sauce wine enterprises in Hunan, including Wuling wine industry, Xiangjiao wine industry, Hanwang wine industry and Baisha wine industry.
In recent years, the consumption atmosphere of Hunan Maotai-flavor wine has gradually improved. According to the data of Hunan Liquor Industry Association, in 2022, the scale of Hunan Maotai-flavor liquor market has reached about 6 billion yuan, accounting for about 30% of Hunan liquor market. Hunan Liquor Industry Association predicts that it will reach at least10 billion in the future.
Changde City, where Wuling Liquor Industry is located, also complied with the strategic deployment of Hunan Province to revitalize Hunan Liquor, and issued the Implementation Plan of Changde City to Support the Sound and Rapid Development of Liquor Industry (202 1-2025), which proposed that by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the liquor industry in Changde City will fully realize the annual sales income of more than 7 billion yuan, the annual tax revenue of more than/KLOC-0.5 billion yuan, and the total output value of the whole liquor industry chain of 60 million yuan.
Comply with the expansion trend of Maotai-flavor wine, start capacity expansion and open up long-term development space.
Wuling Liquor, as a local Maotai-flavor liquor enterprise in Hunan Province, has not expanded its production capacity in the past due to factors such as stock rights turmoil. After Laobaigan took office, the equity and management system were stable, and Wuling Liquor started the capacity expansion project with the support of the local government. 20 19, 10 In June, Wuling Liquor and Changde Municipal Government officially launched the "Wuling Liquor Brewing Expansion Project", with an investment of/kloc-0.5 billion yuan and a production capacity of 5,000 tons. It is planned to use about 500 mu of land to build a soy sauce production line with an annual output of 5,000 tons. The project is divided into two phases, the first phase provides 300 mu of land, and the second phase provides 200 mu of land to build a soy sauce brewing production line with an annual output of 3,000 tons. The project officially started construction in May 2020.
4. 1 profit forecast
Revenue forecast: The future growth of five brands under the company mainly comes from headquarters Laobaigan and Hunan Wuling Liquor, and the other three brands are expected to maintain a steady growth trend.
Laobaigan: Laobaigan brand promotes product focus and structural upgrading. It is expected that the sales volume will increase steadily and slightly in the future, and the average price will continue to increase. The income growth in 2022-2024 is 65,438+05%, 65,438+06.5% and 65,438+05.5% respectively.
Wuling liquor: Wuling liquor is mainly high-end maotai-flavor liquor. With the bonus of Hunan Maotai-flavor liquor consumption expansion, it is expected that the volume and price will rise in the future, and the income growth in 2022-2024 will be 26.5%, 30.8% and 30.5% respectively.
Half-town Shaoguo Liquor: It is estimated that the sales volume and average price of half-town Jiu Shao will maintain steady growth, and the revenue growth in 2022-2024 is expected to be 4%, 4% and 4% respectively.
Wang Wen Winery: The sales volume and average price of Wang Wen Winery are expected to maintain steady growth, and the revenue growth in 2022-2024 is expected to be 7. 1%, 8. 1% and 8. 1% respectively.
The sales volume and average price of Confucian family wine are expected to maintain steady growth, and the revenue growth in 2022-2024 is expected to be 7. 1%, 7.6% and 7.6% respectively.
On the whole, it is estimated that the company's revenue in 2022-2024 will be 4.545 billion, 5.223 billion and 6.005 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65,438+02.9%, 65,438+04.9% and 65,438+05.0% respectively, and the CAGR in three years will be 65,438+05.0%.
Gross profit margin forecast: all brands under the company have implemented the strategy of focusing on the middle and high end, among which it is expected that the promotion effect of high-end products of Laobaigan and Wuling wine will be obvious, which will drive the gross profit margin to increase. On the whole, it is estimated that the gross profit margin of the company will be 68.8%, 70.7% and 7 1.6% from 2022 to 2024 respectively.
Profit forecast: Considering the company's refined expense management, it is expected that the sales expense ratio will drop slightly in the future. In addition, in the first quarter of 2022, the company received government subsidies and generated other income of 255 million. We estimate that the company's net profit returned to the mother in 2022-2024 will be 669 million, 656 million and 865.438+0.5 million respectively, up by 72.0% and -2.5% respectively. The three-year CAGR is 28% (the year-on-year growth rate of net profit after non-deduction is 32%, 36% and 25% respectively, and the three-year CAGR is 365,438+0%), and the EPS in 2022-2024 is 0.73 yuan, 0.72 yuan and 0.89 yuan respectively.
4.2 Valuation
Relative valuation: the EPS of the company in 2022-2024 is 0.73 yuan, 0.72 yuan and 0.89 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 39 times, 40 times and 32 times respectively. Looking at the dynamic PE trend in the past five years, the valuation is roughly between 25 and 75 times, with an average of about 50 times. The company reduces low-end products and focuses on high-end, and the future valuation level is expected to be close to high-end wine.
Absolute valuation: We use FCFF method to make an absolute valuation of the company, and the value of each share is 28 yuan RMB. Sensitivity test shows that if WACC and sustainable growth rate change before and after 10%, the value per share will change within the range of 23-36 yuan RMB.
We calculated the company's reasonable value as 28 yuan RMB per share through FCFF absolute valuation method. Considering the strategic repositioning of the company, focusing on mid-to high-end products, the business inflection point has emerged. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, the company is given 45 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 32 yuan.
Repeated epidemics affect consumption: Repeated epidemics will adversely affect liquor consumption.
Competition in major markets has intensified: Hebei, Anhui, Hunan and other markets where the company is located are all big liquor provinces with many market participants. If competitors increase their resources in the regional market, there is a risk of intensifying competition.
The progress of product upgrade is not up to expectations: the promotion of high-end products and the promotion of brand image is a long-term process, which needs to be put into operation continuously, and there is a risk that the short-term effect will not meet expectations.
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