The new security treaty between the United States and Iraq has just been passed in the Iraqi parliament, agreeing that the United States will withdraw its troops within three years. This is a pragmatic plan that will be finalized before Obama takes office. There is absolutely no room for the myth of immediate withdrawal in Iraq.
Obama visited Iraq once before the election. A famous photo shows Obama sitting in a Black Hawk helicopter overlooking Baghdad below. One of his campaign slogans is to end the Iraq war and withdraw troops 16 months. About three months later, at a joint press conference in Baghdad, General Hammond of Baghdad introduced us to the latest security situation in Baghdad. Around this time, I interviewed two American Coalition generals, General Hurtling, the commander in charge of northern Iraq, and Robin Swan in Baghdad.
American troops in Iraq
Everyone at the scene knows very well that there are two wars in Iraq: in the first war, the United States confronted the Iraqi army, and there were not many accidental injuries in the war with civilians; In the second war on terrorism, American and Iraqi troops were in the same trench, and they tried to safeguard people's safety in the face of the war on terror. Most Iraqi civilian deaths occurred during this period, and almost all of them were maliciously murdered by terrorist attacks by religious extremists. The process of the war on terrorism is as follows: in the first stage, terrorist organizations in Iraq and abroad attacked, and the US military was the main force against terrorism; The second stage is the civil war between terrorist organizations and domestic religious factions (mainly outside Kurds), and both the United States and Iraq have the responsibility to fight terrorism; In the third stage, which began in mid-2007, the civil war gradually stopped, the Iraqi army turned into the main force of counter-terrorism, and both sides of the civil war began to assist the army in counter-terrorism, and the situation of not suppressing evil and promoting good was fundamentally reversed.
Therefore, Obama visited Iraq before the election, and the overall situation in Iraq has been set. Foreign terrorist organizations became untenable in Iraq and began to flee. One of the main directions is Afghanistan, which is getting tight. Therefore, Obama's statement that he wants to "end the Iraq war" takes advantage of the ignorance of the people and confuses the nature of the two wars. In fact, it is very dishonest. Since Obama has arrived in Iraq, he should know that today's achievements are the result of the efforts of Coalition forces and Iraqi soldiers and civilians in the past five years. The figure provided by General Hammond is that a year ago, Baghdad suffered an average of 40 terrorist attacks every day, and now it is an average of 4.
General Hutlin told me that this change was not only reflected in the sharp drop in the number of attacks, but also confirmed by the testimony of arrested terrorists, who became difficult to move. Another key turning point is that the US military training in the past five years has finally enabled the Iraqi army and police to undertake basic anti-terrorism operations. The daily operations of nearly 100 highway military checkpoints and Baghdad street checkpoints I have seen are all handled by Iraqi military police, and the Coalition forces have basically completed the handover. However, it is precisely because of the war on terrorism that the situation will not be as clear as that of conventional wars. The reversal of the general trend does not mean that the enemy leader signed an armistice agreement and the enemy all surrendered. It's just that the establishment of military-civilian joint defense has made it increasingly difficult for terrorists to hide and launch large-scale activities. However, a certain number of terrorist attacks will last for a long time. At the same time, up to now, terrorist organizations have retreated to several strongholds to be solved, including Mosul, the third largest city in the north. If you need to rely on military strikes to clean up strongholds, you still need Coalition forces as the main force.
Another reason for delaying the withdrawal of troops rarely thought of by the outside world is that the new Iraq needs an intermediate force to balance the threats from neighboring countries. According to Iraqi officials, even if the US military maintains a military base, it is necessary for the soldiers not to come out at ordinary times. I have talked with different people in Iraq about the total withdrawal of troops, and the basic judgment is at least three years, which is similar to my judgment after receiving various information on the spot.
Recently, the Iraqi parliament passed a new US-Iraq security treaty. This provision stipulates that all troops will be withdrawn within three years. This is a pragmatic plan. This was a foregone conclusion before Obama took office. In fact, it is impossible for Obama to do anything special about the future situation in Iraq. The current Iraq issue is not a question of "ending the war" at all, and there is no room for the myth of "withdrawing troops immediately".
American troops in Iraq suffered heavy casualties, and the number of American soldiers killed has approached 4000.
Walking through the land of Iraq, I have had the experience of interacting with Coalition soldiers, Iraqi soldiers and Iraqis. Watching the campaign propaganda of American politicians with soldiers in Baghdad is very different from sitting at home in the United States. After Obama was elected, his assistant explained to China: Some things said during the campaign were just for the campaign, so don't take them seriously. This seems to be a tacit rule in the campaign.
When I interviewed General Swan, I finally asked a question that I knew the answer to. I asked the general what he thought about withdrawing troops in the general election. General Swan answered me clearly: "Like other countries, soldiers do not engage in politics. Politicians make decisions like soldiers and obey orders. " This is also the institutional setup that I have praised more than once. However, in the face of soldiers risking their lives in the front line and fighting for victory inch by inch, a future commander-in-chief of the three armed forces can talk to "subordinates" without relying on the reality of the battlefield. It looks really uncomfortable.
Since Obama's "ending the Iraq war" and "withdrawing troops immediately" are castles in the air, there are many illusory elements in Obama's commitment to change international relations or the fundamental change of the international community's foreign policy toward the United States. A major focus of American and international relations remains in the Middle East. In addition, the long-standing deadlock in the Middle East issue, namely the Israeli-Palestinian issue, cannot be fundamentally changed.
I feel that the Middle East issue in Iraq is concrete and it concerns everyone. When I talk to different types of people in Iraq, almost everyone is hostile when I ask about Israel, even if he has never met a Jew. Even Kurds, who have always been disgusted with Great Arabism, have the same strong feelings because they are in the Islamic religious and cultural circle. American foreign policy has a very unchangeable side, and it is impossible for it to give up its long-term attempt to coordinate the roles of Israel and Palestine. This role will always be another color in the eyes of the people of Islamic countries.
What's more, Afghanistan is escalating, and the cross-border activities of terrorist organizations may still trigger cross-border attacks by Coalition forces. In other words, Afghanistan may still continue to trigger the conflict between the United States and Pakistan. Although the United States-Iraq Security Treaty, which will be implemented next year 1 month, stipulates that coalition forces stationed in Iraq are not allowed to attack neighboring countries from Iraq, several neighboring countries of Iraq have recently met and reached a reciprocal agreement not to attack Iraq. However, as we all know, the status quo is actually unequal. Iran and Georgia are the main channels for terrorists to enter Iraq in recent years, and the relationship between the United States and these countries may still deteriorate. This deterioration will be like throwing stones into the pool water and spreading outwards in circles.
Therefore, in order to succeed in the election, Obama can verbally promise any "change", and the international community should still face the reality calmly.