Wen Kaifeng

China, * * * has seven geographical divisions.

From South China, East China to Central China, and from Southwest China and Northwest China to North China, there are cities with trillions of GDP, big cities with tens of millions of people, and national central cities, except Northeast China.

Yes, there is neither a national central city nor a "two million" city with a trillion GDP and a population of ten million.

/kloc-with a population of 0/100 million, the old industrial base has a good reputation. Why isn't there a super strong city in Northeast China?

0 1

At present, there are 24 cities with trillion GDP in Chinese mainland.

Although trillions of cities have achieved unprecedented expansion in the past decade, the trend of north-south differentiation and east-west differentiation is still outstanding. (See "Top Ten Cities in National GDP, Changed Again")

Among the 24 trillion cities, the south occupies 18 seats, the north only has 6 seats, and the northeast is still shortlisted.

Moreover, among the four central cities known as "F4 in Northeast China", only 1 city in Dalian ranks in the top 30, while Changchun rarely falls into the top 40, and Harbin even falls back out of the top 50.

At the same time, the F4 economy in Northeast China is not as brilliant as it used to be, but at the city level, it is not an ordinary prefecture-level city, but a sub-provincial city.

Nowadays, Suzhou, as the strongest prefecture-level city, and the strongest provinces such as Zhengzhou, Changsha, Hefei and Fuzhou are expected to be sub-provincial.

But in 15 sub-provincial cities, F4 in the northeast is basically at the bottom.

The reason for this phenomenon is that the 1980s and 1990s when sub-provincial cities were established were the highlight moments in Northeast China. After 1994, the expansion of sub-provincial cities came to an abrupt end.

At that time, the sub-provincial cities were either economically developed and had a large population, or they had a unique position in the national strategy.

But in the past 30 years, the urban economy has undergone earth-shaking changes, but the administrative level has solidified, so that the phenomenon that the economy is not strong enough but the administrative level is high has appeared.

02

The northeast economy is coming out of the trough.

In recent years, with the support of a new round of revitalization in Northeast China, coupled with the changes in the geographical pattern in Northeast Asia and the influx of large projects and investments, the economy in Northeast China has obviously rebounded.

As the leaders, the GDP growth rates of Dalian and Shenyang both outperform the national average and rank among the top cities.

Dalian's GDP hovered on the order of 700 billion 10 years, and finally broke through the 800 billion mark in 2022, becoming a powerful competitor of trillion cities.

As the place with the highest voice of the next national central city, Shenyang's GDP in 2022 is close to 770 billion yuan, approaching the top 30 clubs, and the city ranking is higher than that in 2020 1 place.

In Changchun, which competes with Shenyang, due to the most serious epidemic, the total GDP has shrunk dramatically. In 2022, the GDP will drop from 710 billion in the previous year to about 680 billion.

It is also the influence of the epidemic, and it has also experienced the strictest control. Shanghai's annual GDP increased instead of falling, with the actual growth rate dropping by only 0.2% and Changchun dropping by 4.5%. The difference in economic resilience can be seen.

As for Harbin, it has been facing the catch-up of the latecomers. After 202/kloc-0 lost its status as a city with a population of 10 million, it fell out of the top 50 clubs again in 2022 and was overtaken by ordinary cities such as Yulin, Xiangyang, Yichang and Erdos.

This fully shows that urban competition, do not advance or retreat. No city can enjoy the glory of history forever.

03

Who is most likely to take the lead in advancing to the trillion GDP club in Northeast China?

Just a few years ago, in F4 of Northeast China, except Harbin, Dalian, Shenyang and Changchun all set the goal of increasing to one trillion yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan (around 2025).

However, the disturbance of epidemic situation, the game between big countries, the adjustment of industrial structure and the change of population fundamentals have brought unprecedented uncertainty to economic growth, with the Northeast bearing the brunt.

However, with the support of various policies, the northeast economy is breaking through the platform period and is expected to achieve a breakthrough.

If there are no unexpected factors, Dalian and Shenyang are expected to take the lead in advancing to the Trillion Club in the next few years.

As the leader of F4 in Northeast China, Dalian's GDP reached 843 billion, approaching Xuzhou. According to the current growth rate, it will exceed one trillion around 2025, and there may be no suspense.

However, Dalian's ambition does not stop there. As early as 202 1, Dalian shouted the slogan of GDP exceeding one trillion in three years, that is, breakthrough ahead of schedule in 2024.

In order to achieve this goal, we must maintain at least a nominal growth rate of 10% and a real growth rate of around 7% in the next two years, which may bring some pressure.

As the first provincial capital in Northeast China, Shenyang has been pursuing a trillion-dollar city, a population of ten million and a national central city.

The "One Center, Five Demonstrations" action plan meeting held in Shenyang at the end of last year proposed:

Except for the policy uncertainty of national central cities, there may be little pressure to achieve other goals.

Dalian and Shenyang are in sight of promotion, but unfortunately Changchun, which had great catch-up potential, suddenly increased its catch-up cycle under the impact of the epidemic.

In the past few years, Wuhan, Shanghai and Changchun suffered the worst epidemic.

Shanghai, with the strongest economic resilience, basically completed the restoration in more than half a year, and Wuhan returned to the eighth city in two years. I'm afraid Changchun will take longer to repair.

This also means that Changchun's hope of advancing into a trillion cities in 2025 has failed, and Changchun, which has stopped, needs to regain the "lost two months".

04

Northeast China, why should it be a trillion-strong city?

In recent years, the saying that "the southwest has overtaken the northeast" is endless.

During the third-line construction period 50 years ago, the Northeast has transferred a large number of factories, equipment, technology and talents to the western region, laying a good industrial foundation for the southwest and northwest regions.

Nowadays, it has gradually become a reality that the southwest has overtaken the northeast. As the big brother in Northeast China, "Liaoning" is being overtaken by the recipients of that year. Sichuan and Chongqing have taken the lead, while Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou are not far apart.

In this context, the Northeast needs a trillion-strong city to boost the basic market and enhance the weight of the Northeast in the national economic map.

Compared with the economic catch-up, the change of basic population plate has added countless unfavorable factors to Northeast China.

As we all know, the national population market has peaked, and the era of negative growth has arrived ahead of schedule, while the Northeast has fallen into a situation of double negative growth before this.

The so-called double negative growth refers to the negative growth of natural population on the one hand.

This is the result of the continuous decline in the birth rate. The birth rates in the three northeastern provinces are at the bottom of the country, even lower than those in countries such as Japan and South Korea, which are famous for their population crisis.

On the other hand, it means the loss of population.

According to the data of the seventh master plan, from 20 10 to 2020, the population of only three central cities in Northeast China is increasing, and the other 30 cities are caught in the dilemma of population contraction.

In this regard, the Northeast needs a strong economic city and a strong center to consolidate the development of knowledge and stabilize the basic population.

05

Northeast China needs a national central city more.

At present, China has approved nine central cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi 'an and Zhengzhou, covering six geographical regions, but the northeast is still zero.

However, since 20 18, China has not added a national central city. When the Northeast can break through is still up in the air.

Why is the national central city so important?

According to the analysis of Kaifeng's book China Urban Megatrends, the national central city is the pyramid of the national urban system. These cities "live in the center of national strategy, shoulder the national mission, lead regional development, participate in international competition and represent the national image".

Such a high positioning is obviously not only the icing on the cake for the city, but also the inclination of national strategy and major planning and the ability of regional resource allocation in that year, which will be upgraded as never before.

Compared with a trillion-dollar economic power, a national central city has a deeper intention: to establish a leader and vanguard in Northeast China.

If a city with a trillion GDP is only a single breakthrough of a single city, whether it can be promoted to a national central city will determine the leading role of regional development in the future.

Previously, Shenyang, Dalian and Changchun all showed their determination to win the championship in China.

However, with the strategic adjustment and economic structure transfer, Dalian has turned to a global marine city, and Changchun has become more and more low-key. Only Shenyang has become more and more ambitious.

For the importance of junior high school, Shenyang is outspoken in official documents:

It can be seen that whether you can enter junior high school is not only related to the gains and losses of a city, but also to the long-term development of Liaoning and even the whole northeast.

In short, in order to make the city live up to its name and let 65.438+billion people gather the knowledge of development, the Northeast needs trillions of cities, national central cities, even the top 20 or even the top 654.38+00 cities as support.