Except for Tesla and new car-making forces, traditional car companies are mostly valued based on cyclical stocks. What is different from the past is that vehicle groups are losing their leading role in the automotive industry chain, and upstream core parts companies have entered the center of the stage.
Article/"Automobile Man" Zhang Heng
During the raging epidemic, hot capital money has greatly changed the pattern of the automobile industry, and the market value of companies with technological concepts has "rising from the ground." What new risks are brewing with the opportunities that come with these "troubled times"?
Let’s look at the car market first, and then the stock market.
According to data from the Passenger Car Association, due to the high temperature holidays for car companies, which are mostly concentrated in early August, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the third week of August after the holiday was 45,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and wholesale sales were An average of 50,000 vehicles, an increase of 10% year-on-year; retail sales in the first three weeks of August reached an average of 37,000 vehicles per day, an increase of 12% year-on-year, and wholesale sales reached an average of 38,000 vehicles per day, an increase of 9% year-on-year. The recovery in retail sales in the first three weeks of August exceeded expectations.
After China’s epidemic has been basically brought under control, car companies have continued to press inventory into channels. In the past few months, wholesale sales have been significantly higher than retail sales. This phenomenon took a turn in August, when retail sales growth exceeded wholesale sales growth. The "Golden Nine, Silver Ten" and year-end momentum are coming soon. At present, the main car company's predictions of the market in the second half of the year are prescient.
Passenger car sales increased in August, and automobile stocks rose again. On September 1, the A-share automobile sector rose by 2.88, ranking second in the industry rankings. This situation is really rare. Among them, Great Wall Motors and BYD hit their daily limit, Changan Automobile rose 5.98, and Joyson Electronics rose 5.05. In addition, Yutong Bus, Fuyao Glass, BAIC Blue Valley, and FAW Jiefang rose 4.50, 4.35, 3.88, and 3.61 respectively.
On the same day, the performance of the Hong Kong auto sector was also strong. At the close of trading on September 1, among more than 100 H-share sector categories, the lithium battery sector rose 6.19 points, ranking fourth; the automobile sector rose 5.05 points, ranking fifth. Among them, BYD shares rose 13.38 and Great Wall Motors H shares rose 8.92. In addition, Dongfeng Group, Fuyao Glass H shares, Geely Automobile and Guangzhou Automobile Group H shares rose 4.83, 4.61, 4.40 and 4.35 respectively.
Unknowingly, the A-share automobile sector has achieved 4 consecutive positive monthly K lines, and the H-share automobile sector has achieved 5 consecutive positive monthly K lines. The A-share automobile sector rose by -0.53, 6.10, 15.21 and 5.99 respectively in the four months of May, June, July and August. The H-share automobile sector rose by 8.79, 4.76, 12.53, 18.56 and 2.86 respectively in the five months of April, May, June, July and August. Obviously, foreign capital (H shares) is more optimistic about the recovery of China's auto market than domestic capital (A shares). The obvious increase in June and July shows that many funds were betting on the reversal of the auto market in June and July. Although sales in August were better, the increase was not as good as the previous two months.
In terms of U.S. stocks, Weilai has had five consecutive positive months on the monthly K-line. These five months are also the five months in which Weilai has achieved a "big turnaround". The increases from April to August were 22.66 and 16.72 respectively. , 93.97, 54.66 and 59.38, with a cumulative increase of 623.57. Since Li Auto and Xpeng Motors have just been listed, the monthly K-line trend cannot be seen yet. However, the valuations of these two car companies are anchored to NIO, and the valuations of the three new car-making forces are all affected by Tesla. Impact on share price performance.
Tesla closed up 12.57% on August 31, with a market value of US$464.339 billion, breaking into the list of the top ten listed companies in the world by market value, with the company's price-to-earnings ratio of 1,262 times. Tesla’s monthly K-line also achieved 5 consecutive positives, which were also the 5 months that Tesla became a god. From April to August, it rose 49.18, 6.79, 29.35, 32.49 and 74.12 respectively, with a cumulative increase of nearly 500.
In fact, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, Tesla's sales in Europe and North America this year can be said to be "slumping". It is the Chinese market that makes Tesla’s “market dream rate” come true.
Benefiting from the rising stock price, Tesla announced on September 1 that it planned to sell off US$5 billion worth of stocks to help the company's operations. It can be said that it is a "master of stock trading."
The rise in Tesla's stock price has made Musk's wealth surpass Buffett and Zuckerberg one after another, becoming the third richest man in the world. Following this trend, it is not surprising that Musk surpassed Bezos to become the world's richest man.
The world's historic "big release" has caused too much money in the market, and so-called high-tech companies have become the "favorites" of hot money. It must be admitted that Tesla’s “market dream rate” has benefited from the dual protection of the COVID-19 epidemic and the Chinese market. In less than half a year, Tesla has rushed into the top ten in the world. 10 years ago, it was said that there were only two types of mobile phones in the world, one was Apple and the other was other mobile phones. Now, in terms of market value, there are only two types of car companies in the world, one is Tesla and the other is other car companies.
Except for Tesla and new car-making forces, traditional car companies are mostly valued based on cyclical stocks. At present, the capital market's pricing for car companies from the trough to recovery is still accurate and objective. What is different from the past is that vehicle groups are losing their leading role in the automotive industry chain. Upstream core parts companies have entered the center of the stage, such as CATL, Desay SV, Fuyao Glass, Ganfeng Lithium, and CITIC Dai card companies.
It is said that "crisis" is the coexistence of risks and opportunities. People inside and outside the industry have been paying attention to the innovation of the automobile industry. Unexpectedly, it was the COVID-19 epidemic that greatly promoted the reform process of the automobile industry. Flooding capital is pouring into the automobile industry crazily, looking for new concepts and new highlights, and "supporting" it. A group of new car-making forces represented by Tesla have stepped onto the forefront with the support of capital power.
First of all, the first problem faced by high stock prices is that listed companies have the urge to "cut leeks." This is especially true for companies such as new car-making forces that do not have sufficient operating cash flow. In the past two days, Weilai has just officially announced that it will issue additional stock financing, which is expected to be priced at US$17 per share, with a financing amount of over US$1.7 billion; Tesla has also just announced its plan to sell US$5 billion worth of stocks to help the company's operations. Speaking of "cutting leeks" at high positions, people can't help but think of Jia Yueting and LeTV. Some people think that they are different, but the reduction and financing after the surge will inevitably cause controversy.
Secondly, some investors have been overly optimistic about the development of these companies. Of course, many just want to take a gamble and leave. The biggest difference between the automobile industry and Internet companies is that the marginal cost of acquiring unit users for Internet companies has declined exponentially, and will eventually be close to zero; while the fixed costs of car manufacturing companies will always be there, including building factories to expand production capacity, as well as genuine steel and tires. , glass and other raw materials, these are no different from traditional industrial cycle stocks. This also means that it is difficult for car manufacturers to achieve large-scale revenue growth like Internet companies. Car companies need much more time. Does the current stock price overdraw too much of the future (time)?
Again, Buffett has a famous saying: "When the tide goes out, you will know who is swimming naked." According to the experience of mature car markets in Europe and the United States, the market cannot accommodate so many brands, and car manufacturing is not such a profitable business. . This means that there must be many people "naked swimming". (Text/"Autobot" Zhang Heng, some pictures are from the Internet) Copyright Statement This article is an exclusive original manuscript of "Autobot", and the copyright belongs to "Autobot".
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.