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Why can’t China’s history escape from the law of “its rise and fall are also sudden”?

In ancient and modern times, at home and abroad, the prosperity of a country is often due to a strong centralized leadership. In China, the most typical example is Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty. He established an inner court, strengthened centralization of power, and concentrated the country's manpower, material resources, and financial resources to attack the Xiongnu. It was said that "the victory was accomplished in one battle." In modern times, the Soviet Union was able to become one of the world's most powerful countries in a short period of time because of Stalin's strong leadership. The power of a centralized system lies in its tight and strong organization. Because of this, it can quickly concentrate all resources and mobilize all forces to solve the country's most pressing problems. It can make a poor country rise rapidly. Therefore, it is said that "its prosperity is also booming."

A famous sentence in "Shanpo Sheep·Tong Guan Guan Gu" is "Prosperity, the people suffer. Death, the people suffer." Why do people suffer even when things are prosperous? Because when centralized power uses all resources to solve urgent problems, it will inevitably sacrifice the interests of ordinary people. In "Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty" we see that although Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty won the victory against the Xiongnu and established the image of a powerful country, the people's lives were still poor. The Soviet Union quickly realized industrialization and won the reputation of being an industrial power. However, decades later, people's lives still have not improved significantly. Because, in many cases, most of the resources come from domestic sources (when Britain rose, the exploitation of colonies was another situation). How can ordinary people become rich when their financial resources are concentrated by the state? Therefore, prosperity achieved by sacrificing the interests of the people is not a long-term solution.

Everything must be viewed dialectically. The advantages of a centralized system will turn into its disadvantages under certain circumstances.

The demise of Chinese dynasties was due to the following reasons: (1) the exclusive power of relatives and eunuchs; (2) the emperor himself was ignorant and unethical; (3) the intervention of external forces. After careful analysis, in fact, the three are connected.

Why did the exclusive power of relatives and eunuchs lead to the demise of the dynasty? Because these people will develop their party members and families, use their power to acquire a large amount of land, compete with the people for profits, and eventually form a powerful interest group. They will continue to expand their share of the country's wealth, causing people to live in poverty, making a living without a living, and forcing the people to rebel.

When the emperor himself is ignorant and immoral, treacherous ministers must be in power. The so-called "the upper beam is not straight and the lower beam is crooked" means that the upper beam is straight and the lower beam is crooked. It has never been that the upper beam is crooked and the lower beam is straight. As a result, the entire bureaucracy does not serve the people, but opens the door to the selfish interests of its own group. Therefore, when the upper echelons of a centralized system use their authority and strict organization to pursue their own selfish interests, it is the beginning of corruption in the entire system.

What about the intervention of external forces? You must know that external factors only work through internal factors, and the development and changes of things depend on internal factors. The following analysis is based on the Song Dynasty and the Qing Dynasty:

The Song Dynasty has been facing the threat of the powerful Liao Kingdom since the early days of its founding. Although Song Taizu Zhao Kuangyin and his younger brother both fought against the Liao Dynasty, they never won a victory. Regarding this point, I think of two places. One is that the early Western Han Dynasty was also threatened by the powerful Huns from the north, but it was finally able to defeat the Huns. Second, although the Liao Kingdom was powerful, it was ultimately defeated by the Jin Kingdom, which had far less manpower, material and financial resources than the Song Dynasty. Why is this?

First of all, the military strength of the Song Dynasty was indeed not strong, because the Song Dynasty learned the lessons of the demise of the Tang Dynasty and did not allow local princes to have self-respecting troops, so Zhao Kuangyin's "cup of wine released military power." Secondly, loyal ministers were killed. During the Southern Song Dynasty, Yue Fei fought against the Jin Kingdom and achieved successive victories, but was eventually killed on unfounded charges. Because Emperor Huiqin was imprisoned in the Kingdom of Jin at that time, if the Kingdom of Jin was defeated and the old emperor was brought back, what would the then emperor Zhao Gou do? Therefore, he repeatedly reminded Yue Fei that peace would be enough, but Yue Fei refused to open or lift any pot, and always talked about welcoming back Emperor Huiqin, so Zhao Gou had been dissatisfied with Yue Fei for a long time. To sum up, it is because these emperors did not hesitate to sacrifice the interests of the country in order to keep their thrones, which was essentially for their own selfish interests.

As for the Qing Dynasty, first of all, Cixi dominated the court, and in her view, the Manchus were Manchus after all, and the Han people were just slaves. Of course, they would not take the Han people's country seriously. That’s why there is the traitorous statement of “measure China’s material resources and gain the favor of the country”. Secondly, the closed-door policy pursued by the Qing Dynasty resulted in its military strength not being at the same level as that of the Western powers. Because it was afraid that the Han people would have more contact with the outside world and become more open-minded, which would break their enslaving education and drive away the Manchus. After listening to the historical stories of the Qing Dynasty, I felt that the enslavement education of the Qing Dynasty was indeed superior to others. If it were not for the invasion of foreign powers, China would probably continue to sleep. To sum up, it is still one point: the ruling class serves its own interests.

So, when faced with difficulties, a centralized system can give full play to its strengths and gather all its strength to overcome difficulties. Likewise, when its strengths are used to benefit oneself, it reaches the other end. The so-called "Boo" and "Hu" both mean rapidity, which reveals the characteristics of the centralized system and the sorrow of the empire.

In the middle and late stages of a dynasty, social conflicts have intensified, but at this time there are always one or two emperors who have been in power for decades.

I can't help but think that if we work hard in these decades, we might be able to save the dynasty from extinction. I think whether the dynasty can be revived during this critical period has a lot to do with the character of the leader. Emperor Ai of the Han Dynasty in the middle and late Western Han Dynasty was also a new official when he took office. He really wanted to do something big, and he also attacked Wang Mang's power. But the more I worked, the more resistance I felt was great, so I lost my energy, so I just quit and started drinking and having fun every day. In contrast, when Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty came to the throne, he also wanted to do something big. As a result, he was attacked by the stubborn forces represented by Empress Dowager Dou as soon as he did a few things. However, he did not feel depressed. It was to recharge his batteries, accumulate strength, and finally realize his political ideals.

So, when social contradictions are gradually exposed, it is a turning point for the country to continue to grow stronger or gradually decline. People with lofty ideals can see the existence of contradictions in the peacefulness of singing and dancing, and put forward their own political ideas-reform.

The following analyzes the reasons for the success or failure of famous reforms in history.

Qin’s Shang Yang’s Reform made Qin a powerful country and finally laid the foundation for Qin to unify the world. However, in the process of reform, it was constantly obstructed by the aristocratic forces. If Qin Mu Gong hadn't supported Shang Yang, I don't know what the consequences would have been. After the death of Duke Mu of Qin, Shang Yang was brutally killed by the stubborn old forces.

Wang Anshi’s reform in the Song Dynasty also touched the interests of many relatives of the emperor. In the beginning, Song Shenzong strongly supported it, but later he failed to withstand the pressure from the nobility and royal forces, resulting in Wang Anshi being forced to resign from the post of prime minister twice. After Shenzong's death, Empress Dowager Gao came to the court to take charge of the government, and within one year all new laws were abolished.

The Reform Movement of 1898. It was resisted and opposed by die-hard forces from the beginning and ultimately failed.

From the three reforms, we can see two major similarities: First, the purpose and measures of the reforms were to enrich the country and strengthen the army, and from a current perspective, most of the measures taken were at that time. They are all beneficial to the country; secondly, the reform will definitely weaken the interests of vested interest groups and arouse their strong opposition. The failure of the reform will allow vested interests to gain more benefits, and eventually form a large interest group, which will continue to expand the group's private interests and make it difficult to recover, thereby paving the way for the demise of the dynasty. Successful reform will definitely damage the rights of vested interests, but it can make the country strong again. Moreover, social progress always requires continuous innovation, because things themselves are constantly developing, and so are contradictions.

An ancient saying goes, “If you take history as a mirror, you can know the ups and downs.” Above, I have analyzed in detail the reasons for "its prosperity is booming and its demise is sudden", and the final focus is on "reform". However, it still has not got rid of the idea of ??"rule by man" and has certain limitations. Because the success of the reform requires paying a huge price, and the previous reforms in Chinese history have also proved that there are few successes and many failures. Even if you succeed once, you will not be able to succeed again and again, and you will eventually fall into the cycle of history.