Time: 165438+20041October 6th.

Venue: Auditorium of the Great Hall of the People

Speaker: Michael Spencer, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Theme: China's economy in the world pattern.

Moderator: Zhang Maoyuan, member of the Academic Committee of China Academy of Social Sciences.

Zhang Zhuoyuan: Ladies and gentlemen, friends and classmates, next we will invite Professor Michael Spencer, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, to give a keynote speech. Professor Spencer is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and is now the honorary president of stanford graduate school of business. 1966 received a bachelor's degree in philosophy from Princeton University, 1968 received a master's degree in mathematics from Oxford University and a Rhodes Scholarship, and 1972 received a doctorate in economics from Harvard University. Professor Spencer was the head of the Economics Department of Harvard University, the dean of the College of Arts and Sciences, the dean of Stanford Business School, and the chairman of the National Science, Technology and Economic Policy Research Council of the United States. In 200 1 year, Professor Spencer won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his outstanding contribution in the field of information economics. Professor Spencer is not only an outstanding economist, but also an excellent professor. He has been teaching in an internationally renowned university. The Graduate School of China Academy of Sciences hired Mr. Spencer as honorary professor. Before today's speech, Professor Deng Yong, vice president of the Graduate School of China Academy of Sciences and director of the teaching committee, presented Mr. Spencer with an honorary professor certificate.

Congratulations to Mr Spencer on his appointment as honorary professor of the Graduate School of China Academy of Sciences. Next, I'd like to invite Professor Spencer to give a speech. The topic of his speech is "China's economy in the world structure". Let's welcome with warm applause.

Michael Spencer: I understand the introduction just now. Thank you. I feel honored to stand here today, and I am very grateful to the Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences for awarding me an honorary professor just now. I hope that in the near future, I can discuss topics of interest with my classmates in graduate school in class.

I am an economist, and my interest lies in market structure, market operation, market information characteristics, and how the Internet affects the market and how it affects the global market in terms of information. I will talk about some global topics, but at the beginning, I want to talk about general academic research.

I think everyone here is determined to be a scholar, a researcher or a teacher. As we all know, the academic circles have formed and kept the first real international isomorphism. When an important new discovery is made in academic circles, for example, an important theorem in mathematics is proved in Moscow, scholars all over the world who pay attention to this issue will begin to understand the progress in this field in a very short time, hours instead of days, even before the emergence of the Internet. We are * * * because in such an increasingly globalized world, we share the same and important values. We all agree with academic openness, smooth communication, intensive research of knowledge and universal recognition of academic achievements, no matter where such achievements come from. In this world, there are many coercive forces, such as nationalism, cultural and racial separation, trying to separate us. Therefore, international isomorphism like ours is particularly important in academic circles, because they play an important role and deserve our cherish, care and support.

One of the concerns of this forum on science and humanities is that there are some tensions between different disciplines. What I want to point out is that all disciplines, without exception, will pay attention to some aspects of the world or human life and ignore others, which is absolutely necessary for academic research to make progress, and there is nothing wrong with it. People will ask, where does this tension come from? I've thought about it. I don't think it comes from these disciplines themselves, but from the competition of values that influence us to make important social choices, from different educational methods and exchanges with other cultures, from our different understanding of individuals and countries and our relationship with the planet we live in. In my opinion, the tension and competition among disciplines are healthy for decision makers to a certain extent, but if it goes beyond the scope of balance, if human living conditions, people's desires and needs have to succumb to natural science, social science and those inhuman machines that manipulate the huge and complex economic system, this tension will lead to division. It is undoubtedly important to develop the economy, which can make people free and pursue other goals, which is beyond doubt. But it also has a side effect that cannot be ignored-people tend to take economic development as the ultimate goal. Developing economy is not an end in itself, but a means to achieve other purposes, enabling people to do more important things. I live in Silicon Valley, California, USA. Silicon Valley attracts many passionate young people to develop new technologies and start businesses. It is true that people usually think that Silicon Valley is a place to create wealth, but this is not its essence. In my opinion, Silicon Valley is more important for young people to innovate and change the world. When I talked with young people in China, I saw the same situation. Of course, they are also interested in economic income, but what is more important to them is the opportunity, freedom and environment for them to display their talents, whether they are engaged in academic research, business or politics.

There is another source of tension between different disciplines. The academic development and contribution of natural science and social science, which I call humanities, are usually step by step. More than 50 years ago, people discovered the structure of DNA, which did not deny the value of Darwin's natural selection theory, nor did it pose a threat to evolutionary biology, but promoted the understanding of these theories. I cooperated with others to study the information structure of the market and found that the market information is asymmetric. This study is not to deny Samuelson's general equilibrium economic model theory, but to supplement it and expand the application scope of economic model. The development of these disciplines seems to be like building a wall brick by brick. If you find a mistake, take some bricks down. The important thing is that people accumulate bit by bit. But this is not the case in the humanities, which are not cumulative, but more dialectical, need more speculation, and rely more on short-term insight into the human condition. Therefore, we once again see the benign tension between these disciplines. However, unless it is out of balance because of excessive competition, this tension can be controlled, which depends to a large extent on those who have the power to decide the direction of a society. I think the academic field as a whole should be broad and eclectic, and all aspects of academic research should be considered comprehensively, and academic exploration and efforts should be viewed in an all-round way, rather than just focusing on certain specialized disciplines.

One thing I remember most is that in the 1970s, the leaders of our two countries adopted an interesting way to improve relations and bridge the gap between the two countries. At first, the two countries did not hold formal high-level government talks immediately, but made extensive contacts in academic, educational, artistic and cultural fields, which enabled the two peoples to communicate, thus beginning the reconstruction of our relations. This was a very wise move at that time.

Today, leaders and people of many countries in the world are trying to build a global economic system. People in many relatively backward countries began to benefit from it in terms of economy, material conditions and development opportunities. So what I want to talk about today is what changes are taking place in the global economy, what opportunities are there, and finally what challenges we will face together.

I am an economist, and I will discuss globalization from the perspective of economics, but not narrowly. Globalization is not only an economic issue, but also involves important cultural and social aspects, which we have not fully understood. These problems are important because we are becoming more and more interdependent. There are often potential conflicts between different cultures and values in the world, and we must face these conflicts together because we have become more and more interdependent. So we must face up to this potential conflict. For example, 20 years ago, not many people in the world paid attention to China's economic development, because frankly speaking, from an economic point of view, whether China's economic growth rate was 8% or 10% a year ago did not matter to most people in Europe and America. But it is different now, because the development of China is one of the powerful driving forces of the global economy. If China's economic development is successful, everyone in the world can benefit from it. I want to take China as an example to talk about the global economic situation, and then discuss some other important developments to show that we now have unprecedented opportunities. Finally, I will talk about some challenges we face.

In the past 25 years, China's economy has been developing at a high speed, with the annual per capita income growth rate exceeding 8%, while the growth rate of productivity in the same period is roughly estimated by the input-output ratio, which should exceed 6%. During these 25 years, the poverty rate in China has also dropped significantly. Such a speed of development and the extent and scale of poverty reduction are unprecedented. From the perspective of economics, it is not difficult to find out the driving force for China's economic development. First of all, the most important thing is to adopt and apply the principles of market economy under the conditions of socialist market economy. Market economy takes price signal and market as the center and emphasizes the effective allocation of resources. Now it seems that people's economic experiments that deviated from the principles of market economy in the 20th century were all proved to be failures. Of course, there are many different models of market economy, but if a market needs to make hundreds of millions of decisions every day, it is obviously impossible to make all these economic decisions together. The only exception is a single enterprise, where centralized decision-making is feasible. I think this is not only deeply understood by all of us, but also generally accepted by all of us. Second, China has skillfully and very skillfully realized an incredibly complex economic transformation, that is, from a planned economy to an increasingly market-oriented economic system. It has not only implemented a market economy in China, but also successfully integrated into the international market.

Thirdly, policy makers in China are very concerned about the rational distribution of income. If we don't pay attention to income distribution, it will easily have a destructive impact on society. As I mentioned earlier, the poverty rate in China has decreased, which shows that the China government attaches great importance to this issue, and it is expected that as many people as possible will benefit from economic growth. China's success also benefits from vigorously developing education and training and establishing educational institutions at all levels. There is also to promote the flow of talents and labor, so that where there are opportunities for economic development, there will be talent flow, no longer subject to geographical restrictions. This is reflected in the worldwide migration tide. After 1978, more than 20% of the urban population in China moved out of the countryside. At that time, the proportion of rural population in China was 82%, and now it is about 60%. This is indeed a huge population flow, and it is not an easy task to manage it well. We might as well compare the economic growth rate of contemporary China with the countries that completed the industrial revolution earlier in history. The data used below comes from my colleague Paul at Stanford University. Raman. Britain started the industrial revolution as early as18th century. During the last century, their annual economic growth rate was 1%, and their economic aggregate doubled in 70 years. The economic growth rate of the United States and major European countries during the industrialization period was 2%, and the total economic output doubled every 30 years. The growth rates of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province are all higher than those of the United States, while the economic growth rate of Chinese mainland is even higher. What is the difference? If the economic growth rate is kept at 1-2%, the speed of economic development will not be slow enough to change people's life state. If the economic growth rate reaches 8%, it not only shows that the economic growth rate is very fast, but also the face of the whole economic activity will change once or twice in a short generation. The reason is simple: if the relative price changes, it will drive the development of different industrial sectors, make people's income and wages rise, and the mode of economic activities will change accordingly. People have become accustomed to regard China as the center of the most important labor-intensive manufacturing plant in the world, with high product quality and relatively low labor and manufacturing costs. But in another 20 years, the situation may change, because people's income and wages have increased, and people's employment orientation is likely to change, especially in today's situation where people's working methods are changing at an unprecedented speed, which will be a considerable challenge. This is why we should pay special attention to education. Education is an important intangible asset because it can make people adapt to the rapidly changing environment.

Let's look forward to the development of China. China's current gross national product is $654.38+$0.3 trillion, equivalent to one tenth of that of the United States and slightly higher than that of Italy. The population of China is four times that of the United States, so the per capita income is equivalent to one fortieth of that of the United States, but this conversion is distorted, because people know that the price level in China is relatively low, so the actual per capita income in China should be two to three times that of the United States, which is about one fifteenth. I predict that if China can maintain its current economic growth rate, its total economic output will roughly double every ten years. It is predicted that China will become a very important economy in the next 20 to 25 years.

If China can continue to develop at this speed, it will become an important economic power in the coming decades. By the middle of 2 1 century, there will be three leading economies in the world: the United States, the European Union and China, followed by Japan and India. For the whole world, this is a brand-new change, a huge change. Fifty years is a long time, and China's economy will become very important in the world.

Next, I want to talk about India. India's economy is only half that of China, and its population is slightly smaller than that of China, but its population is growing faster than that of China. I think everyone knows why. In recent years, India's economy has developed rapidly, and a number of well-trained talents have gathered in the information industry and related fields. Especially due to the emergence of the Internet, these human resources can play a role in the global economy. For example, the ability of these talents has been proved in the United States and European countries. Therefore, in a sense, India is becoming one of the countries that are developing rapidly and gradually integrating into the global open economic system. However, India has not completely liberalized its control over foreign direct investment, so it has failed to enjoy the opportunities that China has in manufacturing, which is an important driving force for China's economic growth. The economic development of China and India both benefited from the reform, which made full use of their own resources, especially human resources, and made good use of global public resources, especially science and technology. Both countries attach great importance to the development and application of science and technology, and are also gradually promoting the development of science and technology. In addition, both China and India actively integrate into the international market, instead of relying entirely on the domestic market to drive economic development. Both countries, especially China, have benefited a lot from foreign direct investment, which helps to alleviate the insufficient investment caused by the high national savings rate and interest rate constraints, and make the country gradually get rid of poverty and become rich and strong. China and India, two populous countries, are joining the rapid development of globalization. The following is a meaningful comparison. Twenty-five years ago, the world population was about 5 billion, of which 700 million people, or about 15%, lived in developed countries or countries with relatively rapid development. Today, with the process of global economic integration after the end of the Cold War and the rapid development of information technology and subsequent communication technology, China and India are becoming countries with rapid economic development. Of the 6 billion people in the world today, about 4 billion live in developed countries or rapidly developing countries. The importance of this progress cannot be overemphasized. From 15% to two-thirds of the population living in more developed or rapidly developing countries, the difference is obvious. From the economic point of view, this is a great opportunity for any country, which is unprecedented at any time and in any historical period. On the other hand, there are still 2 billion people living in relatively backward countries, whose domestic economic development is unsuccessful and has not yet been in line with international standards. These are also the two major challenges we face.

Let me talk about two or three important development trends. Since World War II, the productivity growth of developed countries has been around 2%, with few exceptions, but sometimes it is higher or lower, while the growth rate of China is 6-8%. In recent years, the productivity of the United States has also increased rapidly, reaching 4-5%. The research shows that this is mainly due to the application of systematic information technology, which improves productivity, reduces costs, opens up new markets, and makes product storage and sales more efficient. Monitoring and management methods are also much more advanced than before. For example, 40 years ago, all kinds of information about a company's production, procurement and sales were recorded on paper, but now these data are recorded in a huge software called ERP company. This is a very basic IT software, which has not been widely used in every enterprise. I mean, now we are in the process of change, not revolution, but there will be great changes in the end. The productivity of the United States continues to develop, the economy grows steadily, and the use of labor in business operations will continue to decrease. This phenomenon will also appear in the global economy. In fact, this change has already begun. The reason for emphasizing the importance of technology is obvious. The development of IT industry has greatly reduced the transaction cost in the market behavior of buyers and sellers. Whether in the United States or Europe, this cost reduction will have a great impact on the global economy. A hot topic discussed in the United States is subcontracting to India's IT industry, which shows that human resources in one country can directly serve consumers in another country, which is unprecedented. Therefore, IT industry has a far-reaching influence in the world and plays an important role in the world economy. Internet, in particular, is not limited by time, space and place. The IT industry has greatly reduced the transaction costs in China, especially in the global economy. Therefore, we must vigorously develop the information technology industry, so that it can continuously integrate into the global economy and exert a long-term impact. In a sense, the IT industry provides a platform for the global economy, combining the market with supply and demand, and making the idea come true.

The third aspect I want to emphasize is European integration. European integration is very important, but the research in this field is often ignored or not deep enough. Recently, people pay close attention to the development of American science, technology and military power, and the influence of China's rapid economic growth and abundant human resources on China and even the world economy has also attracted extensive research and attention. If you go to the United States or some European countries to attend meetings, you will find that what people like to talk about most is what happened in China. Europe is usually regarded as relatively backward in technology, slow in change and unable to flexibly adapt to economic development, but they pay more attention to protecting people's rights and interests. Some people think that this practice has hindered economic development to some extent. These views are more or less correct, but this analysis is too simplistic. In fact, the heads of many large multinational companies that have influence on the multilateral economy are from Europe. However, what I want to say is that European countries and people, as well as their leaders, are building a political and economic union, which is comparable in scale and strength to North America. They already have a unified currency, a strong and independent central bank, a unified economic policy, a relatively integrated trade policy, a foreign policy and an open and fast-moving labor market, which is of extraordinary significance to the rapid development of European economy. After the completion of European integration, it will become one of the three major economic entities in the world. If Europe were still a small and medium-sized country in 15-25, there would be no integrated economic system and no achievements today. Therefore, the EU alliance is very important. Moreover, the European approach must be based on globalization. They established a joint ruling regime. Their economic integration is a microcosm of global economic integration, and many countries can effectively unite. But in the global economy, the multi-ethnic government alliance is not successful. If we want to build a multi-ethnic country, the EU is a vivid example, from which we can see the opportunities, challenges and changes we will face.

Before talking about the challenges we face, I want to talk about the aging of the population. At present, many countries in the world have the problem of population aging. Surprisingly, GNP is used to measure a country, which includes the problem of population aging. You may ask, what about the aging population? I see myself getting old. What's wrong with getting old? In fact, population aging is normal, but the problem is that economic policies, especially fiscal policies, have not kept up with the development of population aging. This problem is particularly serious in Europe. The population growth in most European countries is slow, and there are not enough immigrants to replace the aging young people. There is also an obvious problem of aging population in Japan. The same is true in America. The baby boomers are getting older now, but because the United States is relatively open and attracts many overseas immigrants, the problem of aging is relatively less serious. If the population of China continues to develop like this, it will also encounter the problem of aging in 20 or 30 years. The serious problem lies in the imperfect mechanism of providing pension and medical insurance. For example, in Europe, people retire at the age of 55-60. Pensions mainly come from the tax system, but many people retire before saving enough money. Moreover, the progress of medicine makes people live longer and longer, which is a heavy burden for young people and unbearable. This is a difficult financial problem, which will take a long time, maybe 40-60 years. So from China's point of view, the chance to solve this problem is better than that of the United States. We should establish an affordable financial system to reduce the unnecessary burden on young people and let people make rational and realistic decisions on whether to retire.

Let me talk about the challenges we face in the process of globalization. First of all, I want to talk briefly about the market, information and supervision. I know that China is very interested in these topics, because China is establishing a financial capital market. Financial market and capital market are both typical information gap market systems, and their operation cannot be separated from appropriate macro-control. One of people's understandings is that the good operation of the financial market can not be separated from reasonable macro-control, so that investors can obtain the information they need, estimate the possibility of investment and make reasonable decisions. This is a huge challenge for many countries, and it is also true for the global economy, because the global market is still immature in information, and its weaknesses sometimes bring fatal problems to the global economy. Therefore, the challenge we face is to strengthen supervision and transparency, and we should create an environment with a good business atmosphere.

Who is the winner and who is the loser in the process of globalization? I think I agree with an economics colleague. People's answers are not necessarily completely wrong or correct. We can only say that the globalization process or trade will bring long-term benefits to everyone. My colleague is 89 years old. He wrote a very interesting paper this summer. The topic is very long. In his paper, he used a very simple model to explain that globalization has continuously made a country more open, but in some cases, it has also caused irreparable permanent losses. He cited an American argument as an example. In the United States, people have accepted the reality of losing manufacturing jobs, especially those labor-intensive manufacturing industries. Although the transition process is difficult, compared with the United States, some countries may have more advantages in manufacturing because they are at different stages of economic development. But neither the American people nor government officials thought that they would lose those high-tech jobs, because it was considered as our advantage. My colleague put forward a point that needs our attention, that is, when a country has some advantages in some aspects, such as the United States has advantages in high technology, if the productivity of other countries increases and human resources are well developed, it is likely to lead to a decrease in the income of people in developed countries. This situation is not a foregone conclusion, but it is not a temporary phenomenon. In the process of globalization and discussion of political issues, all of us should realize what the short-term and medium-term impacts are. At this point, the policies issued by various countries are of great significance. In fact, an important influence of developing IT economy is to let the originally bound talent resources flow freely and give full play to their talents and competitiveness. At this point, India's IT industry is the first case, which can be written into textbooks.

Herman, a famous economist, wrote an interesting book forty years ago-Exit, Voice and Loyalty. What does the title mean? In fact, "exit", "voice" and "loyalty" are three words he carefully chose to illustrate how our society and economy work. "Exit" refers to the market, because people walk around with their feet to observe buying things. They know the types and prices of goods in different places, and then decide whether to buy them. Usually, people will make a choice after looking at the price of goods and constantly choosing. So "exit" represents the market. So what does "voice" mean? "Voice" refers to the political function of the government. We argued and discussed, and finally made a collective decision on an urgent problem. We will not use the market to decide some issues such as national defense and education, but this issue will be applied to a wider range of fields. So "export and voice" refers to the market, politics and government. The "loyalty" in the book refers to the organization, with which people are linked because of a certain need or doing well. Because the market can't replace everything people want to do, whether it's institutions or governments, business or non-profit, churches or cultural organizations, they all exist for a certain purpose. What Herrman did was to find three different words to describe different organizational forms, resource development, employing labor, passing laws, formulating policies, public investment and public product manufacturing. Herriman's point of view is that these three mechanisms are not contradictory, but complementary. They have different scope of application in different countries and societies. Some countries emphasize the market instead of macro-control, which is nothing, because there is no unified standard. We must never ignore the market mechanism, otherwise it will bring serious consequences such as inefficiency and labor shortage. On the other hand, the research started by akerlof, Stie Glisse and I 35 years ago revealed that without the macro-control of the government, the market and information would be out of harmony. This view has been accepted by more and more people, and many phenomena in society have exemplified this point. For example, the establishment of financial market includes macro-control and market disharmony. One of the most critical challenges in the global economy is that the development of the market is much faster than the government's macro-control and institutional development, which means that the role of government functions lags far behind the development of the market in the global economy.

If you compare the government structure of a developed country with its economy and the global economy, you will find that people who oppose globalization have reasonable views on the government structure, which must be admitted. Now there are some important international organizations in the world, such as the former General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the current World Trade Organization, which have played a great role since the end of World War II. The WTO has been playing an important role in breaking down barriers and promoting trade development, creating many opportunities for the economic development of all countries. The purpose of the WTO is to promote openness among countries, and it has successfully done this. Another international institution, the International Monetary Fund, has been criticized recently, but its role is also more important. As well as the United Nations and the World Bank. An organization composed of some countries plays the role of the central bank of many countries in the world to some extent. But think carefully, can these international organizations really meet the needs of the increasingly interdependent global economy? Realistically speaking, these international institutions may be very important and indispensable, but they are not enough. This is why the European integration experiment is so important. Europe is the only place in the world where these institutions have really been established. The global economy may be regarded as a potentially dangerous and destructive place, especially when the market develops in the wrong direction in the short term. I think this view is correct. The global economy is now like a car with broken brakes. Of course, if driving on the highway, the car may not need to brake, just control the direction. But sometimes, braking is necessary, and we don't have it now. Therefore, I think one of the challenges that our next generation or two generations will face is to establish these international institutions.

Finally, I want to say one thing, which is also the most important point to pay attention to. Of the 6 billion people in the world, 2 billion are in economically underdeveloped areas. If they are pessimistic and disappointed, if they have reason to think that their future generations will not have a better life in the morning, if they are dissatisfied with the global economy and doubt it, if there is terrorism, I am not saying that they will sympathize with it, but terrorism will stand in these places where pessimism and disappointment arise. Now there is a heated debate in the world about why the economy and economic development of these countries have not succeeded. Although the debate has not yet reached a final conclusion, it is generally believed that the main problem lies in the lack of good government structure and the problems of these countries themselves. I believe many people will agree that these government problems, such as corruption, lack of incentives and innovation, must be solved from within.

On the other hand, some developed and developing countries, including China, are on the right track and have relatively successful economic development, so we should try our best to support those countries. Nothing is more important than accelerating the development of those underdeveloped countries. In this matter, developed countries and countries with rapid development are duty-bound. At Stanford University