You are receiving more and more information, including information that supports your ideas and information that contradicts your ideas. Neuroscientists have shown that our brains process these two kinds of information differently, and this way of processing information is known as confirmation bias—the tendency to see things in the light of your existing beliefs, and you Will selectively ignore information that contradicts your views.

Confirmation bias refers to the tendency of individuals to support their own prejudices and conjectures, regardless of whether they are factual or not. People tend to consciously look for various evidence that supports or is helpful to confirm their beliefs, and sometimes even artificially distort new evidence.

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In this case, people not only avoid the pain of regret, but the evidence supporting their beliefs adds to their "overconfidence" . Moreover, this bias can sometimes spread like a plague. These people not only want to "entertain themselves" and "huddle together to keep warm" and think that they are "boundless in Buddhism" and "great in divine light", they also like to have everyone praise and affirm that their deviations and preferences are correct.

Even, treat anyone who opposes you in a different way, such as cursing "go to hell" or the like.

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Confirmation bias occurs in many situations, sometimes with dire consequences. During the 2005 presidential leadership of the Iraq War, when faced with evidence that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction, analysts tended to discount the information, subconsciously refuting it because of the mainstream theoretical information they had received. conflicting information rather than weighing and analyzing the evidence independently.

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Confirmation bias is more harmful in the investment field. Try to think about whether you are constantly giving reasons for your wrong buying and selling without taking into account the large number of opposites. evidence?

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Determining your point of view first and then looking for evidence will only lead to false results, thereby misleading decision-making and causing losses. In fact, this is exactly the method of postgraduate training in our country System, think about how terrible it is. Therefore, in the series of articles "Mutual Corroboration of Trends and Fundamentals", I proposed to pay attention to marginal changes, put forward the implicit logic behind it, and set falsification standards in advance. Part of the reason is to overcome the confirmation bias in behavioral finance and give myself a way to admit my mistakes. Opportunities

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For teams or companies, there are not many ways to determine the solution to bias, because this thing is inherent in human nature, just like greed and fear. Same, as long as you are human, you cannot avoid it, you can only alleviate it. There are two ways to alleviate it:

1. Choose people with high emotional intelligence as team leaders, especially people with strong adaptability. Adaptability Part of this is seeking and obtaining a wide range of information from multiple perspectives, which also means keeping an open mind to alternatives not previously considered. The more ideas or strategies you choose from, the more likely you are to choose the most advantageous path. But it seems difficult to train emotional intelligence, so if you find that your leader has low emotional intelligence, especially low adaptability in emotional intelligence, finding another job may be a better choice.

2. Mindfulness meditation. Dario said that mindfulness meditation has brought him huge benefits. It helps with emotional self-awareness and self-control, and keeps an open mind. You can try it if it is useful.