In Greek mythology, there was a beautiful siren Sai Ren who lived in groups on an island. Their heavenly voice and unparalleled beauty will make the past sailors lose their souls, and then the ship will hit the rocks and sink. Only two heroes have sailed safely in history. One is Oedipus, because he can play the piano and the harp is so beautiful that the sea monsters are fascinated by it. The other is Odysseus, who sealed the crew's ears with white wax and ordered them to tie themselves to the mast, because he also wanted to hear the charming singing of the legendary siren, but he also knew that he could not resist the temptation.

It's simple to invest with a fixed investment strategy, but it's not necessarily easy, because it's like we're going to sail across the strait where the siren Sai Ren lives. BOX is like a boat, and the people who vote with me are like those sailors, who need to seal their ears with white wax, so I will continue to give lectures in the practice group; And I, like Odysseus, tied myself to the mast-because the management fee is zero and the profit is zero, so my method of making money is very simple. Like everyone else, I invested a lot of money in BOX ... in the same boat. ...

2. What is the most important concept in the investment field? There is only one: long term. There are more crooked ways in the investment field than in any other field. Why? Because people who have never fully understood the important concept of long-term are also faced with a problem tree. Every leaf on this tree is the problem they want to solve, and every branch is the object of their meditation. In addition to the towering trees on the ground, the underground is also intertwined, which is the root of the mysterious phenomenon that they will never understand. In fact, this tree should not exist in the first place.

Because the most important problem has never been taken seriously, this problem is like the germination of seeds. The ground has grown into towering trees, and the underground is intertwined, resulting in countless "new" problems ... so what we can see is exactly the same. People have come up with countless "solutions" around this intertwined "problem tree" on the ground, and spend a lot of time and energy doing futile things every day.

Investment is perhaps the most important of the few major choices in life-it is so important that most people never seriously consider it, let alone do it. The investment field is the most polarized field. It's like a binary world. Either you are 1, or you are 0-you are extremely successful in this field, or you are not extremely successful, that is, you are as mediocre and failed as everyone else-almost equal to zero anyway. In my opinion, the existence of this phenomenon is also related to the fact that most people can't solve the most important problems in the first place. What is the most important concept in the investment field? There is only one: long term. There are more crooked ways in the investment field than in any other field. Why? Because people who have never fully understood the important concept of long-term are also faced with a problem tree. Every leaf on this tree is the problem they want to solve, and every branch is the object of their meditation. In addition to the towering trees on the ground, the underground is also intertwined, which is the root of the mysterious phenomenon that they will never understand. In fact, this tree should not exist in the first place.

There seems to be a gap between knowing and doing, and long-term practice is the only way to cross this gap. Fixed investment strategy is the simplest in practice, you only need to buy the established investment target for a long time-however, simplicity does not mean easy.

"Fixed Investment Changing Destiny" is not only an open source book, but also the first digital asset ETF in the blockchain world designed by Li Xiaolai Box. It's simple to invest with a fixed investment strategy, but it's not necessarily easy, because it's like we're going to sail across the strait where the siren Sai Ren lives. BOX is like a boat, and the people who vote with me are like those sailors, who need to seal their ears with white wax, so I will continue to give lectures in the practice group; And I, like Odysseus, tied myself to the mast-because the management fee is zero and the profit is zero, so my method of making money is very simple. Like everyone else, I invested a lot of money in BOX ... in the same boat. ...

Although there is a distance between knowing and doing.

Please remember:

All the details that have nothing to do with the long term are trivial.

Please seriously consider and ponder the profound meaning of the following famous saying, which was said by Benjamin Graham, the godfather of investment and the teacher of Warren Buffett:

In the short term, the market is a voting machine; In the long run, it is a weighing machine.

It is almost impossible to pay close attention to all the details of the present and seriously think about everything in the distant future. This is also the fundamental reason why there are very few truly successful value investors. There is a funny metaphor that when you wear a watch, even if it is a few minutes faster or a few minutes slower, you can still roughly know the time, but if you wear two watches at the same time, you must be stupid. ...

Everyone can understand that among many targets, especially in the dynamic change of price, it is actually very difficult to choose the best target-it is as difficult as an archery champion standing on a bumpy boat and hitting a bull's-eye in the distance on the shore.

Invest in S&; P 500 (ACGR, average compound growth rate: 9%) may be better than investing in MSCI World (ACGR: 7.86%), but investing in MSCI emerging markets (ACGR: 10.37%) is better than investing in S&P 500. What is the simplest explanation?

The United States is developing faster than the whole world;

The growth rate of emerging markets even exceeds that of the United States.

Now we can see that there is another option between "one" (very dangerous) and "all" (very mediocre) when choosing investment targets: "Select some". So, which part is the most worth choosing? I prefer another metaphor to "gambling":

Investing is like choosing a means of transportation-you can't reach your destination without using it, or you just spend a lot of time, but some people may not reach their destination until they die. Don't choose to walk if you have a bike; You shouldn't choose a bicycle if you have a motor vehicle, and you shouldn't choose a motor vehicle if you have a plane ... In short, you should choose the fastest means of transportation.

No matter how good the algorithm is, it also needs data feeding. At present, listed companies with a large number of continuously growing user data have sufficient profitability. If the algorithm is the big tree of the future, then the growing data in their hands is the most fertile soil. Without soil, big trees cannot grow. Most algorithm companies will eventually be used by big companies with data. ...

In history, we have seen and experienced the amazing changes brought to the world by the rapid flow of information by the Internet at almost zero cost. So, if assets can flow as fast as information at near-zero cost, what amazing changes will it bring to the world in the future?

Ten years later, we see that the great changes brought by the Internet have taken place-although not in the way we originally imagined, the changes are so amazing; Then, ten years later, the financial internet may also bring amazing changes to the world, although we actually can't know in advance how this great change happened. ...

Therefore, in the eyes of Li Xiaolai at that time, the blockchain was the future, the blockchain was the trend, and the blockchain was probably the fastest growing industry. Looking back eight years later, it has really become the fastest growing industry, and my investment just caught the express train all the way and reached an unimaginable distance today.

The reason is that we hate not only risks, but also systemic risks. The correct method is always "local":

? Looking for one or several local areas on a global scale;

? Select one or several industries in one or several regions;

? Look for some excellent enterprises in a certain industry. ...

However, in any case, we should not "choose only one"-whether it is a region, industry, enterprise or project. Therefore, even in the "globalization-only" industry-as long as the time is ripe, the choice is no longer a single goal, but a combination, box-composed of, EOS, XIN, a total of three goals.

Look at the schematic diagram, it may be easier to understand.

The outermost circle represents the whole world. You stand in the middle with a bow and arrow in your hand. ...

You look around and try to find a point that is most worth shooting with an arrow-this is very difficult, because there are actually countless points to choose from in the whole circle. You have to choose the most correct one from these countless points, and it is completely impossible for you to shoot it all at once from such a long distance. ...

So, you thought about it and chose all of them-that is to say, you don't need a bow and arrow, you change tools and use a net ... It's quite good, simple and easy, and although the effect is average, it's better than shooting with a bow and arrow for a long time without hitting it once. ...

But you want better results, so you chose a general direction first-in fact, you are not fooling around, you do have a reasonable choice: shoot arrows in the direction of which area is developing fastest in the future! After all, the probability of getting shot is higher, right? Great, you don't need an arrow to cast a net in that direction!

Then you find that you can adjust the general direction on almost the same basis. Because some fields will develop faster than others in the future, similarly, in those faster fields, some industries will develop faster than others in the future-the same logic still holds.

You guessed three times, 1) casting a net widely may be more cost-effective; 2) Some areas may develop faster in the future; 3) In those local areas that may develop faster in the future, some industries may develop faster in the future ... If we continue to "guess", the accuracy will definitely be damaged too much ... What shall we do? Don't use bows and arrows, change shotguns! In this case, although the aim is not accurate enough, the probability of hitting will be higher, even higher? Besides, don't say I can't aim properly. Since it is so far away, not everyone can actually aim at it. Since everyone can't aim at it, after many adjustments, my chances of winning should be higher, right?

Finally, you have another discovery, that is, under any circumstances, using an arrow is the most uneconomical. ...

I have a very simple, direct, rude and effective method to judge whether a trend is "established":

It is not whether most people have accepted it, but whether most people can't deny it.

"Nothing is impossible" is an important sign that a trend has been established. It doesn't matter whether you understand or not. It doesn't matter whether you accept it or not. The important thing is not to deny it all. Then, this trend has "basically squeezed out the bubble"-this is the best judgment basis for the best admission opportunity of the fixed investor.

The problem is that if we divide the market at any time, 100% is invalid. The occasional equivalence between price and value doesn't mean anything at all, because even a broken clock can be set twice in a whole day! Putting all the moments together, in the long run, theoretically, the market should be efficient.

And those investors who constantly study various technologies are even worse. They are more than two tricks. They have too many tricks! It is an epiphany to read any investment book casually, and it is an awakening to listen to any master lecture casually-you can't help rehearsing the new tricks at once ... In other fields, it is definitely a good habit to find and use new tricks anxiously, but in the investment field, this habit will kill people-in fact, most ordinary investors are killed by themselves, in the investment field.

Where there is heaven, there is hell. On the other hand, if there is no such terrible hell, heaven may not be so desirable.

You will encounter another embarrassing fact:

The best days are usually next to the worst days. ...

If you really avoid all the worst days, then you will inevitably magically avoid many of the best days.

The price of real estate cannot go up forever. Once house prices plummet (for example, 25% a year in the next 30 years), then "investment" becomes a "hanging rope".

Money at cost is terrible, but it's just a child. Money with a useful life is even more terrible, and it is simply a death wish.

Think of your money as a boiled egg structure:

The egg yolk part is your daily necessary expense;

The protein part is your savings for resisting risks;

Eggshell is money you can invest, and it will never leave the market in the next two big cycles. ...

With the increase of overconfidence, IQ may even actually become negative. You will start to do all kinds of stupid things, such as a sudden increase in living expenses. The most hidden stupidity, on the one hand, is that you gave up the long-term investment before, on the other hand, you gave up the continuous investment for a long time in the future. You forget that what you give up this time will be magnified more times after the next big cycle. At this stage, people will spend the price of an island to buy a so-called luxury car ... You think you spent a lot of money, but it took you a thousand years! The money you could have earned in the future, because you are stupid at this time, and you can't earn it in another thousand years. ...

In fact, you will be relieved from another angle. It's like you just sailed into a big river from a small stream, and you have to experience what you have experienced, only this time the waves are bigger, even much bigger! You used to get seasick in the stream, but now you can't get used to it, so you still get seasick and throw up many times ... but you will eventually get used to it again, just like when you were sailing in the stream, but now it's okay. What you need to remind yourself repeatedly at this time is, where is this? If you keep sailing, you will rush into the sea, where the wind and waves are even more stormy. At that time, you will have to adapt again. ...

The analogy put forward by Plato more than two thousand years ago is quite consistent with the solution of scientists more than two thousand years later. Just compare it:

Brain structure

Image appellation

Plato's metaphor for two-wheeled chariots

cerebral cortex

human brain

Freight coachman

endothelium

Monkey brain

surname

brainstem

Crocodile brain

Dark Horse-Unexpected Winner

I prefer Plato's chariot metaphor to "man, monkey and crocodile"-because the coachman, white horse, dark horse and chariot are a unified combination. Our body is like that chariot, and there are three selves living in our heads, a coachman, a white horse and a dark horse. The three of them should not be enemies of each other, nor should they be enemies of each other. The relationship between them is the best, only cooperation. The closer they cooperate with each other, the higher the efficiency of the chariot; Otherwise, the chariot will be useless.

The so-called calmness can actually be defined as follows:

No matter what happens, all three characters need to be dealt with once, and then the driver decides.

In other words, don't take any action until these three roles are dealt with separately. This very simple, direct, rude and effective strategy will change the performance of the whole chariot. Soon, the driver will realize that sometimes, the black horse's reaction is incorrect, and the white horse's reaction may also be incorrect; Moreover, after repeated communication among the three of them, the white horse may listen to the driver's advice, and the dark horse can also establish new correct intuition after repeated communication. ...

Education is like a pair of glasses. Before and after wearing glasses, you are actually in the same world; However, after wearing glasses, you can see more clearly and accurately. Before and after education, you are still the same world, but with the lens of education, you can see the same world more clearly and accurately. ...

There is a particularly accurate analogy about the results of education, which is my own. I call it Byakki Smoker:

The world in the mirror looks exactly the same as the world outside the mirror, but in fact, every point is the other way around. ...

You see, it's obviously the same price drop. In the world outside the mirror, all black horses are the same, and all white horses are the same. They are afraid while running, and they are afraid and depressed at the same time. As for the driver, of course, I can't help myself ... What about the world in the mirror? The black horse is unmoved, but the white horse is in high spirits. As for the driver, he is carefree. ...

Long-term cognition is that mirror, and there will always be strange people in the mirror.

Almost all the most amazing Byakki Smoker are caused by people's different views on the long term. This is an eternal fact: most people have no long-term concept at all, and can only see and think of everything in front of them ... or you may understand more easily that the vast majority of "chariots" in this world are always the strongest dark horses, and white horses will always run behind them. As for drivers, they have never grown even a little.

From another angle, you can also think of the word "long-term" as a pair of sunglasses, which can filter out long-term ineffective light, just as wearing sunglasses can filter out ultraviolet rays. Then you will naturally and involuntarily use your macro observation ability more, just like drivers wear polarized sunglasses when driving. This will not only filter out the ultraviolet rays that are most harmful to your eyes, but also make those dazzling rays deviate from your pupils ... so that you can see more clearly and accurately.