Butterfly effect frog phenomenon crocodile principle catfish effect flock hedgehog rule

Watch law, broken window theory's 28 law and barrel theory, Matthew effect.

0 1- butterfly effect:

Butterfly effect: In 1970s, an American meteorologist named Lorenz explained the theory of air system, saying that the wings of a butterfly in the Amazon rainforest occasionally vibrate, which may trigger a tornado in Texas within two weeks.

Butterfly effect refers to a very small change in initial conditions, which will have a great impact on its future state after continuous amplification. Some small things can be confused, and some small things are very important to an organization and a country if they are amplified by the system, so we can't confuse them.

Management enlightenment

Today's enterprises are also affected by the "butterfly effect". Consumers believe in feelings more and more, so intangible values such as brand consumption, shopping environment and service attitude will become their choice factors. So as long as we pay a little attention, it is not difficult to see that some companies with standardized management and good operation will have such sentences in their corporate philosophy:

"In your statistics, only one customer in 100 is dissatisfied, so you can proudly say that only 1% is unqualified, but for this customer, he got 100% dissatisfaction."

"Once it is bad for customers, the company needs 10 times or even more efforts to remedy it."

In the eyes of customers, you represent the company.

Today, the "butterfly" that can change the fate of an enterprise is far more than the "planner". With the news of China Unicom's entry into telecom competition, private enterprises contracting special trains and Nanjing foreign-funded enterprises participating in public transport competition, the monopoly position of enterprises is getting weaker and weaker, and open competition forces enterprises to consider various potential factors affecting their own development.

Measures such as streamlining institutions, laying off employees, and canceling welfare houses have kept more and more people away from traditional protection, followed by relying on themselves to decide their own destiny. The result of the free combination of organization and individual is that whoever can catch the "butterfly" beneficial to life will not be abandoned by society.

02- Frog Phenomenon

Frog phenomenon: put a frog directly into the hot pot, because it is very sensitive to bad environment and will jump out of the pot quickly. If you put a frog in a cold water pot and heat it slowly, the frog will not jump out of the pot at once. The final result of the rising water temperature is that the frog is boiled to death, because when the water temperature is so high that the frog can't stand, it is too late or can't jump out of the pot.

Frog phenomenon tells us that some emergencies are often easy to arouse people's vigilance, but it is also easy to kill people because they feel good about themselves and gradually worsen the actual situation without conscious awareness.

Revelation:

One of the revelations is that the main threat to the survival of our organization and society does not come from unexpected events, but is formed by a slow and gradual process and cannot be detected. People are short-sighted, seeing only the part and not the whole situation. They can face the sudden changes calmly, but they are unaware of the big changes that have taken place quietly, which will eventually bring us more serious harm! ~

The second revelation is that frogs, like everyone else in our lives, should focus on the future, be diligent in thinking about new problems and learning new knowledge, and can't live a life of "drinking today, getting drunk today" and "being a monk one day and ringing the bell one day", and they will be very sad in the end!

The third enlightenment is that today's society is an era of knowledge explosion and rapid change, and knowledge needs to be constantly updated, so we can't blindly indulge in the status quo, be content with the status quo and not strive for progress. In this way, we will definitely be eliminated by the times and face the danger of unemployment!

The fourth revelation is: don't simply face the sudden danger and ignore the slow and tiny danger, because the slow and tiny danger is the most terrible!

03- crocodile principle

Crocodile principle: the original intention is to assume that a crocodile bit your foot. If you try to get rid of your feet with your hands, crocodiles will bite your feet and hands at the same time. The more you struggle, the more you get bitten. So, in case a crocodile bites your foot, your only way is to sacrifice one foot.

For example, in the stock market, the crocodile principle is that when you find that your trading deviates from the direction of the market, you must stop immediately, without any delay or luck.

04- Catfish Effect: Catfish Effect

In the past, the survival rate of sardines in transportation was very low. Later, it was found that if a catfish was put in sardines, the situation would be improved and the survival rate would be greatly improved. Why is this?

It turns out that catfish will be "impatient" and wander around when they arrive in a strange environment, which undoubtedly stirs up a large number of quiet sardines; And sardines found such an "alien molecule", which naturally made them nervous and accelerated their swimming speed. In this way, the problem of hypoxia of sardines will be solved, and sardines will not die.

When the work of an organization reaches a relatively stable state, it often means that the enthusiasm of employees is reduced, and the "harmonious" collective is not necessarily an efficient collective. At this time, the "catfish effect" will play a very good "medical" role. In an organization, if there is always a catfish, it will undoubtedly activate the workforce and improve work performance.

"Catfish effect" is one of the effective measures for enterprise leaders to stimulate employees' vitality. It is manifested in two aspects. First, enterprises should constantly replenish fresh blood, introduce young fresh troops full of vigor and quick thinking into the workforce and even the management, and bring competitive pressure to lazy employees and complacent bureaucrats, thus arousing sardines' sense of survival and competitiveness. Second, we should constantly introduce new technologies, new processes, new equipment and new management concepts, so that enterprises can fight the storm in the market tide and enhance their viability and adaptability.

As for the application of catfish effect, it has been applied in human resource management and leadership activities, including establishing competition mechanism, activating talents and changing leadership style. But the author thinks that the analysis and application of catfish effect goes far beyond this. Different perspectives lead to different ways to find and solve problems.

First of all, if the catfish ontology represents the leader.

Leaders are individuals or groups that influence others to complete tasks. In a lifeless sardine box, sardines symbolize a group of highly homogeneous groups. Their skill level is similar, lacking innovation and initiative, overstaffed and inefficient, and the whole organization is in a bloated state. The arrival of catfish leaders (or the internal sardines evolved into catfish), the new officials took up three fires, rectified discipline, standardized systems and reformed processes. Reasonable distribution of posts, people, finances and materials has gradually improved the operation of the organization, reduced costs, streamlined bloated institutions, eaten and drove away incompetent sardines, and gave positive incentives to competent sardines, making the whole organization present a thriving scene. Under the leadership of catfish leaders, the vitality of the whole organization has been mobilized, thus making the collective strength stronger and having a solid foundation for occupying and maintaining the market.

From this perspective, catfish leaders should have the following characteristics:

1- Decisive and resolute: quickly find out the symptoms of tissue stagnation and solve the problem quickly and effectively.

2- Keep your word and have a strong style: make scientific decisions, and timely supervise the implementation of decisions and evaluate the effectiveness of policies.

3- Advocating innovation, results-oriented: Advocating innovation, creating an atmosphere to encourage innovation, and embodying innovative ideas and benefits from business processes, work design, personnel recruitment and allocation, salary design and assessment.

4- Achievement needs and forward-looking vision: having short-,medium-and long-term development plans and goals, being able to foresee the development direction of the organization and the gap between the existing human resources and the future, being able to effectively identify future talents and reduce those who are not suitable for the development of the organization.

5- Systematic perspective, dare to change: Being able to observe the changes and functions of the organizational system structure from inside and outside the system, not only should we regard ourselves as a part of the organization (compared with fishermen, catfish leaders are sardines themselves, and fishermen are the leaders), but also regard ourselves as a leader in a small system, which can drive employees to open up the situation, break the routine and achieve good benefits.

For the workers who strive for the same goal under the leadership of the leader, if the leader has the characteristics of catfish, then the way to survive is to exercise and stimulate their own energy, at least in sync with catfish, to ensure the same direction (corporate goal), so as to avoid being caught up by catfish or being squeezed to death by other sardines.

Secondly, if the catfish represents a member of the team.

Then it means new, strange and different, including different opinions, different behaviors and different habits. It is precisely because of differences that wisdom is stimulated. A team needs people with different personalities, different skills and different work experiences to join. If all employees are unified, then the possibility of this team producing whimsy and high performance is slim. With the emphasis on team building and team communication today, properly attracting some catfish to join the team will bring an active working atmosphere, innovation and win-win for the whole team. However, the number of catfish should be controlled. If it is all catfish, the whole team will have the phenomenon of "all heroes, all bears". Because all catfish want to stick to their own views, cooperation and communication will not exist, and the whole team will be malodorous. Therefore, some Japanese companies believe in the employment creed of "first-class managers, second-class employees". Since a catfish can drive a group of fish to churn, there is no need to put the first one. From this perspective, catfish members in the team should pay attention to benign communication and shape their influence, and other employees should also strengthen cooperation with catfish members on the basis of their work.

Third, if catfish represents exciting work content.

At present, in many enterprises, organizational structure and work design are still a major theme of process change. Unreasonable, boring, unpromising and monotonous work content makes people feel like a bucket of crowded sardines without passion, unwilling to think more and improve more in their posts, thus gradually forming a kind of collective inertia. If the job expansion and rich catfish effect can be applied to job design, the financial contribution to the organization is also obvious. How to put active and enthusiastic catfish into a stagnant pool of work? This is also a tricky subject. Some people advocate expanding the scope of work horizontally and vertically, deepening the content of work, allowing employees to experience rich work activities and feel the fruits of hard work, so that they can show excitement and desire when facing challenging and exciting work. Some people advocate increasing the talents of employees by rotating posts, so that catfish at work can swim more and more happily; The author advocates that while applying the above measures, we should also pay attention to the personality matching between people and posts. Catfish should do catfish business, and sardines should do sardines business. There should be jobs for catfish and sardines. The most important thing is to find out the preferences of employees and see what jobs can make them have catfish motivation and passion. Only after matching can the catfish effect really play a role, otherwise, although catfish posts are set up, it is found that this kind of work is not something that employees can do at all.

From this perspective, catfish at work represents rich work content, exciting responsibilities and rights, challenging work expectations, fresh experiences in other positions and so on. For leaders and human resource managers, whether to set catfish work in their work and at what level will be a strategic issue of an organization.

To sum up, from different angles, what catfish represents is different. For a practitioner, the catfish may be the leader, so you'd better keep the same direction as the organization and don't swim back, otherwise you will be in danger of being eaten, and you should always go against the current with passion. Maybe one day you will become a catfish and drive a group of sardines upward. Your colleague may also be a catfish, so compare with him to see who has more tumbling energy; Your subordinates may also have catfish, so don't forget to charge yourself while encouraging your subordinates to grow up, and keep a strong development momentum, otherwise you are in danger of being eaten by your subordinates; There may be catfish in the work, so arrange the work reasonably, prioritize and make the catfish work more enjoyable, and it is best to stir it up at a higher level.

05- Herd effect: Herd effect

Herd effect: Where the first sheep goes, the following sheep follow.

Herd effect was originally a term in stock investment, which mainly refers to the phenomenon that investors learn, imitate, "follow the trend" and blindly imitate others in the trading process, thus leading them to buy and sell the same stock in a certain period of time.

Herd effect

Put a wooden stick horizontally in front of a group of sheep, and the first sheep will jump over, and the second and third sheep will jump over; At this time, when the stick was removed, the sheep behind, when they came here, still jumped up like the sheep in front, even though the stick in the way was gone. This is the so-called "herd effect", also known as "herd mentality". It refers to a common phenomenon of market behavior of some enterprises in management science. It means that due to insufficient information and lack of understanding, it is difficult for investors to make reasonable expectations for the future uncertainty of the market, and they often extract information by observing the behavior of people around them. In this constant information transmission, many people's information will be roughly the same, mutually reinforcing, resulting in herd behavior. Herd effect is a nonlinear mechanism that individual rational behavior leads to collective irrational behavior.

Herd behavior is a typical phenomenon in the field of behavioral finance, which cannot be explained by mainstream financial theory. Herd effect is often used in economics to describe the herd mentality of economic individuals. Sheep are a very messy organization, they usually run blindly together, but once one sheep moves, other sheep will plunge into it without thinking, regardless of the possibility of wolves ahead or better grass not far away. So "herding effect" means that everyone has herd mentality, which easily leads to blind obedience, and blind obedience often leads to fraud or failure.

Herd effect generally appears in highly competitive industries. If a leader occupies the main attention of this industry, the whole flock will constantly imitate the leader's every move. Wherever this leader goes, other sheep will also go for gold.

06- Hedgehog Rule

Hedgehog Rule: Two sleepy hedgehogs huddle together because of the cold. But because each of them had thorns, they kept a distance, but they were too cold to stand, so they got together. After many twists and turns, the two hedgehogs finally found a suitable distance: they can get each other's warmth without getting stuck.

Application of Hedgehog Rule

Hedgehog rule mainly refers to the "psychological distance effect" in interpersonal communication.

French President Charles de Gaulle is a man who can make good use of the hedgehog rule. He has a motto: "Keep a certain distance"! This also profoundly affected his relationship with consultants, think tanks and staff officers. During his more than ten years as president, no one in his secretariat, general office, personal staff and other consultants and think tanks has worked for more than two years. He always said to the new chief of staff, "I'll use you for two years, just as people can't take the work of the General Staff as a career, so you can't take the chief of staff as a career." This is the rule of Charles de Gaulle. There are two reasons for this rule: first, in his view, transfer is normal, while fixation is abnormal. This is influenced by the military practice, because the army is mobile and there is no army that is permanently fixed in one place. Second, he doesn't want "these people" to become "people he can't live without". This shows that Charles de Gaulle is a leader who mainly depends on his own thinking and decides his life. He doesn't allow people who can never leave him. Only by mobilizing can we keep a certain distance. Only by keeping a certain distance can we ensure that the thinking and decision-making of consultants and staff are fresh and full of vitality, and we can also stop the elderly consultants and staff from engaging in malpractices in the name of the president and the government.

De Gaulle's practice is thought-provoking and admirable. Without a sense of distance, leaders rely too much on secretaries or a few people in decision-making, and it is easy for think tanks to engage in politics, and then let these people seek their own personal interests under the guise of leadership, and finally drag leading cadres into the water, with very dangerous consequences. It is best to keep a certain distance between them.

ge

Si Tong, former president of American General Electric Company, paid great attention to practicing hedgehog theory in his work, especially in treating middle and senior managers. On the issues of workplace and treatment, Si Tong has never been stingy with the care of managers, but after work, he never invites managers to his home and never accepts their invitations. It is this kind of management that keeps a moderate distance that makes GM's various businesses flourish. Keeping a certain distance from employees will neither make you superior nor confuse you with employees. This is the best state of management. Distance is maintained by a certain principle, which treats everyone equally: it can restrain both the leader and the employees. If you master this principle, you will master the secret of successful management.

good to great

In From Excellence to Excellence, author Collins reinterprets the hedgehog theory. No matter how the fox tries to kill the hedgehog, the hedgehog just needs to shrink up, and the fox can't do anything. This shows that enterprises can easily cope with any changes in the market and competitors and achieve rapid growth as long as they find a simple and effective development model.

07- observation rule: observation rule

Watch law: Watch law means that a person can know what time it is with one watch, but he can't be sure with two watches at the same time. Two watches can't tell a person a more accurate time, but will make people who look at the watch lose confidence in the accurate time.

The watch law gives us a very intuitive enlightenment in enterprise management, that is, we can't adopt two different methods for the same person or organization at the same time, we can't set two different goals at the same time, and even everyone can't be commanded by two people at the same time, otherwise the enterprise or individual will be at a loss.

fable

The story of the monkey and the watch

A group of monkeys live in the forest. Every day when the sun rises, they go out for food, and when the sun goes down, they go back to rest. Life is dull and happy.

A tourist walked through the forest and left his watch on the rock under the tree, which was discovered by the monkey "Monk". The clever Monk soon understood the purpose of this watch, so Monk became the star of the whole monkey group. Every monkey asked Monk for the exact time, and the rest time of the whole monkey group was also arranged by Monk. Monk gradually established his prestige and became the Monkey King.

As a monkey king, Monk thinks watches will bring him good luck, so he patrols the forest every day, hoping to find more watches. Hard work pays off, and Monk has a second watch and a third watch.

But "Monk" has a new trouble: each watch has a different time indicator, which one is the accurate time? Monk was stumped by this question. When a subordinate came to ask the time, "Monk" faltered and couldn't answer, and the rest time of the whole monkey group became chaotic. After a while, the monkeys rose up and rebelled, pushing Monk off the throne of the Monkey King, and Monk's collection was also taken away by the new Monkey King. But soon, the new the Monkey King also faced the confusion of "Monk".

This is the famous "watch law": only one watch can tell the time; There are two or more tables, but several points cannot be determined. No amount of clocks and watches can tell people more accurate time, but it will make people who look at watches lose confidence in accurate time.

Legal inspiration

The law of watches gives us a very intuitive inspiration:

For anything, you can't set two different goals at the same time, otherwise people will be at a loss; A person can't choose two different values at the same time, otherwise his behavior will be in chaos.

A person can't be commanded by more than two people, otherwise this person will be at a loss; For an enterprise, it is even more impossible to adopt two different management methods at the same time, otherwise it will make the enterprise unable to develop.

In this regard, the merger of AOL and time warner Inc. is a typical failure case. AOL is a young internet company. Its corporate culture emphasizes flexible management and quick decision-making, and requires everything to serve the goal of quickly seizing the market. In the long-term development process, time warner Inc. Company has established a corporate culture that emphasizes honesty and innovation.

After the merger of the two enterprises, the top management of the enterprise did not solve the conflict between the two value standards well, which led to the employees being completely confused about the future development direction of the enterprise. In the end, the century marriage between time warner Inc. and AOL ended in failure. This also fully shows that to find out the time, a watch with accurate time is enough.

Only choose what you think is right.

Two watches can't tell a person a more accurate time, but will make people who look at the watch lose confidence in the accurate time. All you have to do is choose one you trust, try to calibrate it, and follow its guidance based on it.

Nietzsche has a famous saying: "Brother, if you are lucky, you only need to have a kind of morality instead of greed, then it will be easier for you to cross the bridge." If everyone "chooses what you love and loves what you choose", then no matter success or failure, they can feel at ease. However, what bothers many people is that they are confused and tired by "two watches" and don't know which one to trust.

Some people choose the road they don't like against their will under the pressure of environment or others, and they are depressed for life. Even if you have made remarkable achievements, you will not feel the happiness of success.

Enlightenment of life

In real life, we often encounter similar situations. For example, two elective courses you are interested in, but the teaching time coincides, so you don't have enough energy to learn well. At this time, it is difficult for you to make a choice. In the face of two boys who are equally excellent and also pay for you, you will be distressed for a long time and don't know how to make a decision.

When choosing a job, where will you go from here? At every crossroads in life, we have to face the distress that "you can't have your cake and eat it".

In the face of contradictory choices, we recommend the use of "fuzzy psychology". The so-called "fuzzy psychology" is to make a choice in line with subconscious psychology in a difficult decision-making situation.

Psychological research shows that "fuzzy psychology" is actually a psychological deposit accumulated in the process of human growth. Maybe you can't give a clear reason, but through the subconscious, you can usually make a decision that best meets your psychological needs. The subconscious mind mentioned here is actually the first impression we often say. "Fuzzy psychology" can provide us with the safest psychological protection in the face of contradictory choices, so it is worth popularizing.

Core idea: More choices and more standards will make people feel at a loss.

Application prompt: the goal is clear and undisturbed; Know how to choose and let nature take its course.

Application fields: social life, enterprise management.

Broken window theory: The Law of Broken Windows

Broken window theory: The window of the house was broken and nobody repaired it. Soon, other windows will be broken inexplicably; A wall, if there is some graffiti that is not cleaned up, will soon be covered with messy and unsightly things; In a very clean place, people are embarrassed to throw rubbish, but once there is rubbish on the ground, people will throw it away without hesitation and feel no shame.

Broken window theory 1

Also known as the "broken window fallacy", it originated from a metaphor in a pamphlet by a scholar named hazlitt (some people think that this theory was summarized by Bastiat, a French economist in the 9th century/kloc-0, and as the object of criticism, see his famous article "Visible and Invisible"). Hazlitt said that if a child breaks a window, it will inevitably lead to the window breaker replacing the glass, which will enable glass installers and glass manufacturers to start working, thus promoting social employment.

Here, scholars try to explain the consequences of children's behavior and government behavior, thus completely denying Keynesian government intervention policy. "broken window theory" is a typical "destruction creates wealth". It seems appropriate to put such fallacies into floods, earthquakes and wars.

Broken window theory 2

Also known as broken glass method.

A broken window, if not repaired, will lead to more broken windows and even the whole building will be demolished.

Broken window theory was observed and summarized by Wilson, an American political scientist, and Karin, a criminologist, and pointed out that the environment can produce strong suggestibility and inducement to a person.

Law 09- 28: Pareto principle

Law 28 (Valledo's Law): 65438+ Italian economist Valledo believes that in any group of things, the most important thing only accounts for a small part, about 20%, and the remaining 80% is secondary, although it is the majority. About 80% of society's wealth is concentrated in 20% of people's hands, while 80% of people only have 20% of social wealth. This kind of statistical imbalance is ubiquitous in society, economy and life, which is the 28 th rule.

The 28 th rule tells us that we should not analyze, deal with and treat problems equally, but should seize the key minority in enterprise management; It is necessary to find out those key customers who can bring 80% profits to enterprises, but only account for 20%, and strengthen services to achieve twice the result with half the effort; Business leaders should carefully classify and analyze their work, and spend their main energy on solving major problems and grasping major projects.

20% of people are successful-80% are unsuccessful.

20% people make money from above the neck-80% people make money from below the neck.

20% people think positively-80% people think negatively.

20% people buy time-80% people sell time.

20% people find good employees-80% people find good jobs.

20% people dominate others-80% people are dominated.

20% people do business-80% people do things.

20% value experience-80% value education.

20% people think that actions lead to results-80% people think that knowledge is power.

20% people, what should I do to get rich-80% people, I want to get rich.

20% people like investing and 80% people like shopping.

20% people have goals-80% people love dreaming.

20% people look for answers in questions-80% people look for questions in answers.

20% people look at the long term-80% people only care about the present.

20% people seized the opportunity-80% people missed it.

20% people plan the future-80% people wake up in the morning and think about what to do today.

20% people act according to successful experience-80% people act according to their own wishes.

20% people do simple things-80% people don't want to do simple things.

20% people do tomorrow's work today-80% people do today's work tomorrow.

How can 20% people do it-80% people can't.

20% people take notes-80% people forget.

20% people are influenced by successful people-80% people are influenced by unsuccessful people.

20% people are in good shape-80% people have a bad attitude.

20% people believe that they will succeed-80% people are unwilling to change the environment.

20% people always praise and encourage-80% people always curse and criticize.

20% will insist-80% will give up.