At present, Gann's time cycle theory, Gann's angle line, wheel in wheel, etc. , are popular, there are many experts, as well as Mr. Zhong's Gann theory and how to build a series of articles in the mainland stock market. However, in fact, these are only part of Gann's theory-the price analysis part. Personally, I think the more important part of Gann's theory, the operation strategy part, is rarely mentioned. This situation makes the impression of Gann theory in the eyes of investors incomplete or even wrong. The complete Gann theory will surely enable investors to better grasp market opportunities. Although I dare not say how much I know about Gann's theory, I hope to express my feelings in words for investors' reference.
Gann's full name is William delbert Gann, and he was born in Ravdin, Texas, USA on June 1878. As a teenager, Gann sold newspapers and telegrams, postcards, food and trinkets on the train. Gann's glory that is talked about by the world is 1909. He made 10 times in 25 transactions! Gann, who remarried this year, was interviewed by the famous magazine Stock Quotes and Investment Digest at that time. Under the supervision of the magazine editor, Gann made 286 transactions in 25 trading days, of which 264 were profitable and the other 22 were losses. The odds are as high as 92.3%, while the funds increase by 10 times, with an average trading interval of 20 minutes. During his career on Wall Street, Gann earned about $50 million. Today, it is equivalent to more than 500 million dollars. Although his wealth is nothing compared with other investment masters, I think the most important thing is that he earned the wealth he deserved by his new discovery.
Most supporters of Gann's theory are proud of Gann's winning rate of 92.3% in 286 transactions with his original theory, but I don't think this is the reason for Gann's success. Gann has published some stock books, but none can really reveal the secret of Gann's success more than 45 years of Wall Street. In this book, the words I see the most are not Gann angle line, time period or wheel in wheel, but the words "stop erosion list". In the second chapter alone, the "no entry list" appeared eight times. Gann pointed out its importance every time it appeared.
Gann said that most people lose money in the stock market for three main reasons:
(1) Overtrading or trading too frequently;
② No stop loss order;
③ Know little about the market.
Obviously, to win money in the stock market, we must avoid the above three mistakes. What is over-trading? My understanding is that every enterprise should not always go in and out of the warehouse. Actually, this is not particularly important. Most importantly, when you speculate rather than invest in the market, it is important not to over-trade when you buy and sell frequently. Too frequent buying and selling is the achilles heel of failure. Think about it, while you are striving for profits for yourself, you have to raise a securities company, which is a heavy burden.
Not placing a stop loss order is also a common mistake made by investors or they don't know it at all. I often hear or see investors complain that the market price of their stocks is far lower than their purchase price. If he is going to invest in a company's stock for a long time, he will never complain because the stock price has plummeted. If he is a speculator, he should definitely set a price. As long as he falls below this price, you should sell the stock at the first time anyway. Gann's suggestion in the book is that the stop loss order should be set at 3~5% below the purchase price. Considering the wide fluctuation range of China stock market, investors can appropriately relax the range of stop-loss orders, such as 5~ 10%. The consequence of not setting a stop loss order is to watch the stock price break, for example, at the beginning of last year, Internet stocks. Smart people will place a stop loss order, set a stop loss position, and leave at any time once the situation is reversed. Otherwise, internet stocks that have fallen by 50% so far abound, teaching people how not to be sad.
Gann asked investors to learn to judge the market trend. Because smart people don't blindly follow the trend, but have their own opinions. When the variety stocks rose from 20 yuan to 60 yuan, you published an article to demonstrate why they were worth 60 yuan, and even jumped to 100 yuan. What does this prove? Now the stock price of Variety shares has fallen by more than 40%. Is it because the market has not found its value?
During his forty-five years on Wall Street, Gann did not repeat the rules in his books The Truth of the Stock Market, Wall Street Stock Pickers and New Stock Trend Detector. I think it is wise to end it. Even if the reader fully grasps his method of analyzing trends, it is impossible to succeed without following the trading rules. Therefore, Gann reveals his success in the second chapter of this book. He said that these 24 winning rules are all based on personal experience. Due to copyright issues, I can't list them in detail here, but I can briefly comment as follows:
(1) Never over-trade. Only a small amount of money can be used for each transaction. The essence of this practice is to "stay in the green hills, not afraid of burning without firewood", and its stability can be imagined. Nowadays, investors always dare to enter, and Man Cang's operation is not stable.
(2) Stop loss orders are extremely important, whether it is profit or loss. Do not cancel the anti-corrosion list after it is set.
The way to speculate is to follow suit. Don't go against the market. If you can't determine the trend, don't buy or sell in the market. Dividends, stock prices and amortized cost are not good reasons to enter the market.
(4) Be careful when overweight, covering positions, cutting positions, flipping or flipping. If the reason is not sufficient, maintain the status quo.
When you earn a lot of money, take a break in time to avoid increasing transactions.
6. don't lose big because of small things. If you invest 3~5% in the stock market, it will easily lead to large-scale losses. Investment should grasp the main trend of the stock market. Gann thinks that people who run the price difference can't make money.
Readers can see that Gann has been groping in the speculative market for decades, and the trading rules he summed up are actually very simple, and there is nothing profound. In my opinion, these trading rules are Gann's success, and the "Gann Theory" only makes it icing on the cake. In fact, the winning way of investment (speculation) lies in stability. No successful investor has made huge profits because of his own initiative. Most successful investments don't make difficult moves. Successful people value high profits, not trading skills.
Gann's prediction of the next few years (1950~ 1953) in Forty-five Years of Wall Street is obviously wrong. 1949 American economy is in trouble, and Gann is bearish on the economic performance of 1950~ 1953. But the fact is that from 1950 to 1953, the GDP of the United States has resumed rapid growth. On the contrary, Gann thought that the bottom of 1953 began to fall rapidly, and 1954 fell into recession. Even so, it doesn't affect the reading value of this book, because from this book, we can learn more comprehensive and true Gann. Although Gann's theory and wave theory were born at the same time, they are far less popular than the latter, so they are not widely circulated. Compared with wave theory, Gann's theory pays more attention to the time factor of market movement and emphasizes the importance of time period, because it thinks that time is the executor of nature. Many places in Gann's theory are consistent with China's ancient classic Yijing and China's ancient astronomical calendar, which adds a layer of mystery to Gann's theory.
Mr. Gann didn't put his forecasting and analysis process into the book, but the theories and methods such as Gann period, Gann geometric angle line, Gann chart, Gann hexagon and Gann square provide excellent tools for us to judge and predict the market. Now we only use the simplest Gann square in Gann theory to analyze some reverse prices in soybean and copper markets since 1999.
(DCE may continuous chart)
The above picture is a Gann grid diagram (the lowest point is 1820/821,rounded to the whole number) which is set as the lowest point in Dalian Commodity Exchange's May contract continuity chart 1999. According to Gann's theory, the data on the vertical horizontal line and diagonal line of the starting point of Gann Square (that is, the eight directions of the starting point: east, south, west, north, southeast, northeast, southwest and northwest) may be the reverse price of the market. Now let's open the weekly chart of DCE soybean contract in May and start to follow it.
As can be seen from the weekly K-line chart of soybean in May, the highest price since 1999 is 2380, which is just in the upper right corner of the above chart, and the time is the week of February 18, 2000. The first wave of high point since 1999 bottomed out appeared in the week of 1999, reaching a peak of 2202 and closing at 2 120. 2 120 is also in the upper right corner of the above figure, below 2380. 2202 is between 2200 and 22 10, and the leftmost point of the starting point 1820 horizontal line is 22 10, which is very close to the highest price of 2202. The peak of the second rising wave appeared in the week of February 14, 2000. It can be clearly seen from the weekly K-chart that the resistance level of 23 10, the highest price of 2320 and the closing price of 230 1 are very close to 23 10, and 23 10 is located in the lower right corner of the above chart. At the end of August 2000, there was a blowout rising market. The highest contract price in May is 2347, which is very close to 2340, and 2340 is located at the extreme right of the horizontal line of the starting point 1820 in the above figure. In the week before the blowout market appeared, the lowest soybean price in May was 2030, which closed at 2046, both of which were very close to 2040, which was just below the above figure 1820.
The following figure is the Gann grid diagram of the lowest OTC price of MCU3 1360 based on 1999. By comparing the weekly K-line chart of MCU3, it can be seen that the highest price of MCU3 since 1360 bottomed out is no more than 2040, and 2040 is located at the far left of the horizontal line of the starting point of 1360 below. The data in the upper right corner of the figure below are the weekly highest price of 1920, 1937 and the closing price of 2000+1October 18 of14, which are close to them. As can be seen from the weekly K-line chart,/kloc-0. 65438+February 4th, 2000, the highest price 19 17 and closing price 19 13 failed to stand on 1920, and MCU3 has been falling since then. According to Gann theory, 1660 in the same direction as 1920 should be an important support level. On April 10, 2000, MCU3 fell to a low point, with the lowest price of 1658 and closing price of 16 1, which was very close to 1660.
(MCU3 Shihua LCPT)
The following figure is a Gann grid graph constructed from the lowest point 1999 CBOT soybean continuous graph of 402.5 cents (rounded to 402). 582 in the upper right corner is very close to the highest price1998 582.5; 1999 12 13 The weekly lowest price of 446.2 is very close to the 446 at the bottom of Figure 402. The lowest price for the week of August 7, 2000 is 436.7, which is close to 438 on the left side of the chart 402 below. The highest price in the week of September 4th, 2000 was 5 15.5, which was close to 5 14 in the upper right corner of the figure below. In 2000, the highest weekly price of 65438+February 18 was exactly 5 14.
(CBOT Shihua SBCC)
Since the soybean and copper market has been in the box movement since 1999 bottomed out, the Gann grid diagram above still has guiding significance for us to judge the important support and resistance of the market. For example, in September, 2 190 and 2040 of DCE9 soybean should be important support levels in the future, as should 1660 and 1580- 1600 of MCU3, and 456, 442 and 430 of CBOT. Gann Square can effectively help us find some key support and blocking points in the market, but some points are not consistent with the discussion of support and blocking in traditional technical analysis theory. For example, the 1920 point of MCU3D actually became a blocking point twice. In addition, the tidal theory holds that when the market is consolidating, the price moves in the shape of a box, but the shape is more complicated, which may be that the box is stacked on the top of the box, or the box is nested on the top of the box. Gann grid can effectively reveal this state of the market and provide useful help for us to judge the position of the top and bottom of the box. Divide your capital into ten parts, and every time you buy and sell in the market, the loss will not exceed one tenth of your capital;
Set a stop loss position to reduce the possible losses caused by trading mistakes;
Do not buy too much or sell too much;
Don't let the positions you hold turn from profit to loss;
Don't go against the market, when the market trend is not obvious, I would rather wait and see outside;
Be firm in entering the market, and hesitate not to enter the market. It is only traded in an active market, and it is not suitable to operate when the transaction is light.
Avoid entering and leaving the market at a limited price and buy and sell in the market.
Stop loss can be used to ensure profit.
After winning Lien Chan in the market, you can increase some profits for a rainy day.
Don't buy stocks just for fun.
When businesses are losing money, it may be a big mistake to prohibit price increases to reduce costs.
Don't enter the market because of impatience, and don't clear the position because of impatience.
Don't do business that pays more and earns less.
Don't cancel the stop-loss position set when entering the market.
Make more mistakes, wait for opportunities when entering the market, and don't speculate too tightly.
It is easy to sell and should not be unilateral.
Don't absorb because the price is too low, and don't be bearish because the price is too high.
Avoid pyramid-shaped overweight at inappropriate times.
Never hedge.
If there is no justifiable reason, avoid changing the trading strategy of the positions held at will. If you believe Gann, a legendary figure in the stock and futures markets, and his Gann theory, then you can expect a moderate bull market in Hong Kong next year.
There are many stories about Gann, the most classic of which is in 1909 10. At that time, under the supervision of many people, Gann made a spot transaction. Among the 286 transactions in a month, there were 264 actual profits and only 22 losses, with a success rate of 92.3%. What's even more amazing is that Gann's funds actually increased by 10 times this month. Far superior to other contemporary trading masters.
In another prediction about wheat option, Gann boldly asserted that the option would rise to $65,438 +0.2 on the afternoon of September 30th of that year. At noon that day 12, the wheat option was still below 1.08, and fluctuated at 1. 10 two hours before the market closed. In the last two hours, the option broke through and finally closed at $65,438 +0.2.
Before entering the investment market, Gann spent more than 65,438+00 years researching. But his research is somewhat mysterious, mainly discussing the influence of ancient mathematics and astrology on the market. In Gann's eyes, the stock market is cyclical, and what happened in the past may still happen in the future. In the small period, 4 years, 5 years, 7 years, 7.5 years, 8 years and 9 years are all important periods, while in the large period above 10, 20 years, 30 years, 45 years, 49 years, 60 years, 82 years, 90 years and 100 years are also important periods.
Investors who have been in the market for a long time may know that the Hang Seng Index was founded in 1964. At that time, the HKEx was not called HKEx, and there were four exchanges. There is no stock machine, and almost all calculations depend on paper and pen. 1964 1 month, the Hang Seng Index hit a new high for the whole year, and then it fell all the way. 1984, that is, in the 20 years of the big cycle, the Hang Seng Index began to fall in March and bottomed out in July. In 2009, with a long period of 45 years, the Hang Seng Index reached the bottom above 1 1000 in March and reached 23,000 in1October.
20 13 happens to be the 49th year of the Great Cycle. At this important turning point, if the Hang Seng Index falls sharply this year, it is very likely to rise next year, and if it rises this year, it is very likely to fall next year.
Investors are well aware that the current Hong Kong market is not "bull" at all.