The Securities Times reporter noted that there has been a phenomenon of fund-sweeping research in consumer stocks recently, and as many as 20 food consumer stocks have seen fund-gathering research. There are many fund managers who are still in heavy positions in semiconductors and new energy at the end of the third quarter, and there are also some fund managers who only studied the technology track before this year 1 1. 1 After that, the painting style changed greatly, and five were investigated in January.
Empathy consumption of new energy fund?
During the key performance ranking window in the last month of the year-end, the performance game may prompt some funds to seek more flexible short-term strategies in the last month.
The latest survey of food consumer stocks shows that more than 20 food consumer stocks are intensively surveyed by fund managers, among which fund managers with heavy positions in military industry, semiconductors and new energy frequently appear. According to the research information released by Ximai Food a few days ago, a well-known domestic fund manager participated in the research of this stock. The well-known fund has long been engaged in industry research and investment in science and technology and new energy. According to the positions of many partial stock funds he managed as of the end of the third quarter, the top ten awkward stocks all point to the semiconductor and new energy tracks.
It is not the first time that the above-mentioned fund managers who prefer to invest in semiconductors appear in the survey list of food consumer stocks. Just two weeks before the above-mentioned fund manager investigated Ximai Food, he also investigated another food consumption stock of A shares last month, showing that the fund manager of Chongcang Semiconductor has obviously increased his interest in consumption since the fourth quarter of this year.
In addition, Gan Yuan Food was recently investigated by more than 20 fund companies. The Securities Times reporter noted that many fund managers with heavy positions in new energy sources also appeared in the survey list of Gan Yuan Food. The positions disclosed by the "all-market" fund products managed by a large-scale public offering new fund manager show that by the end of the third quarter of this year, almost all the top ten positions of the "all-market" fund he managed were allocated on the technical track.
Time window of "investigating model workers"
There seems to be a special "time window" for the change of research preference. Some fund managers' research before 2022 1 1 month almost all pointed to technology stocks, while the same fund manager changed the "research mode" of consumer stocks in 20221month.
The Securities Times reporter noted that a well-known fund manager under a super-large domestic public offering had previously tended to invest in semiconductors and new energy, but in the investigation clues before 1 1 month in 2022 and after1month in 2022, the strategy of the well-known fund manager showed a "rapid change".
According to public information, before 165438+2022 10, the main listed companies investigated by this well-known fund manager who prefers science and technology track are Haixing, Juxin Technology and Zhongke Jiangnan. These listed companies are all science and technology tracking stocks such as semiconductors, new energy, electronics, etc. Among them, the above-mentioned well-known fund managers investigated Zhongke Jiangnan in June 5438+2022 10.
1 1 month, the research style of the above-mentioned well-known fund managers began to turn sharply. Judging from the information disclosed by listed companies, this well-known fund manager's research action in 1 1 month can be called "model worker". He appeared in the research list of as many as five listed companies within a month, and all five listed companies pointed to consumption and food.
The Securities Times reporter also noticed in the interview that the subtle changes in the position structure of many fund managers in New Energy also occurred in 165438+ 10. In an exclusive interview with the Securities Times reporter, a fund manager in South China who manages/kloc-0 billion revealed that he had slightly reduced his position in new energy and started to increase his holdings in the consumer industry in165438+10.
What happened in the consumer field?
Fund research changed from focusing on science and technology track 1 1 months ago to 1 1 months later to inspect consumer stocks by sweeping goods. What happened?
"June 5438+065438+ 10 is the most obvious change in consumer stocks. Many small and medium-sized consumer stocks have risen by 40% or more in a month. " A fund manager in South China admitted to the Securities Times reporter that the change of consumer stocks may be the superposition of many factors, including better expectations of epidemic rhythm management, and long-term suppressed consumer stocks may be favorable chips in the fund ranking game at the end of the year.
Another fund manager in Shenzhen explained that when he bought consumer stocks in 165438+ 10, he also stressed that in the key time window at the end of the year, consumer stocks were more cost-effective, regardless of the consideration of switching from high positions to low positions.
A fund manager of Nord Fund believes that the reason why consumer stocks have strengthened since June 165438+ 10 is that inflation in the United States has gradually declined and growth has gradually fallen into recession, which will reduce the intensity and extent of the Fed's interest rate hike. Secondly, from the domestic situation, the prevention and control measures have been gradually adjusted, which has greatly boosted the expectation of economic recovery. Seeing next year, recovery will be the main factor leading the A-share market, and the market will obviously pick up with the economic recovery. On the plate, more pro-cyclical industries that benefit from the recovery may have excess returns. At the same time, this year, due to the disturbance of the epidemic, there was a big retreat, and the environment of raising interest rates also put pressure on the valuation. But next year, Davis's double-click reversal process may occur, and the consumer trajectory may have a better performance.
The spread of chips in the hands of funds has also made the consumption with low allocation become the main area of capital inflow. Cinda Securities' research on Public Offering of Fund positions in the third quarter shows that from the perspective of industry configuration, there are two important changes in fund positions in the third quarter of 2022: one is the switch from growth to value in style, and the other is the spread from the popular track in the early stage to the plate with weak performance and good chip structure in the early stage. These two paths eventually point to the consumer track.
Cao Zhaoxu, fund manager of Hongde Fund, believes that from the perspective of valuation, the consumer industry as a whole is at a reasonable low level. Although the liquor industry is still on the left side of the dilemma reversal, other restaurant chains and beverage industries may be closer to the reversal point. At present, the market has paid full attention to the impact of the epidemic on the consumption scene, but has not fully considered the impact of the epidemic in the past three years on the survival of the fittest in the consumer industry. After the epidemic, the share of leading enterprises in the industry is expected to increase significantly.
Relevant persons of Zhongrong Fund also stressed that in 2023, it is expected that the marginal impact of epidemic disturbance will tend to weaken, optimistic about the market of consumption repair, looking for structural opportunities and paying attention to the investment opportunities of mass consumer goods. It is expected that the fundamental recovery of such varieties will be more resilient.