1. Every skyrocketing bitcoin is accompanied by a strong circle-breaking effect, which brings a large number of new people who expect to get rich and old people who can't stand the last bear market and quit. The bull is short and the bear is long, which is true in almost every investment market, especially in the cryptocurrency industry. Even the decline of leading bitcoin in the bear market can reach 8-9%, not to mention other non-mainstream assets. So when you enter the market, you should ask yourself, where am I in the market now? How much loss can I bear? How many years can I hold the assets I bought without affecting my life at all? Are the assets bought reliable? Will it return to zero in a few years?

2. The investment risk of cryptocurrency is very high. Pay attention to asset allocation. Don't blindly invest the principal because of the skyrocketing assets in the bull market. Invest with the money you can afford. After all, it is possible for a bull market to plummet by 2-3% in one day. You must invest within your tolerance.

3. For newcomers, it is recommended to configure relatively safe Bitcoin and Ethereum. After 5-1 years of long-term tests, these two varieties are relatively large in the industry. Especially bitcoin, as the industry leader, the overall trend has been upward in the long run. As long as there is no big flaw in the bitcoin system itself, this trend will be maintained in the next few years.

4. if you are really greedy for the increase of non-mainstream assets by several times and dozens of times, you can allocate 5-1% of the funds, look at the market value list of cryptocurrencies, and just choose a few configurations from the top 3 or 5. It is recommended to set up a profit-taking point as a short-term investment and take profits in time. Even for Top5' s assets, it is normal for a bear market to fall by more than 95%, not to mention other categories in the back. In particular, don't easily listen to the introduction of relatives and friends to invest in a blockchain project. Now there are many pyramid schemes and liar projects under the guise of blockchain.

5. Be rational and patient, especially when the bull market is soaring, and restrain the FOMO(Feel of Missing Out) emotion. From the experience of the past four years, there will always be a chance to get on the bus. Especially for non-mainstream assets, why can many asset bull markets rise by dozens of times or hundreds of times, because the bear market has fallen by more than 95% ......................................................................................................................................... No matter how big the exchange is, there is also the risk of bankruptcy or hacking, and it is safest to put assets in your own hands.

7. If the funds can't be idle for more than one or two cycles (every four years), then we must pay attention to take profit in time. Money can never be earned. It is right to take profit at any time. Don't let all the wealth flow on the books.

8. Ordinary people should never over-leverage and play futures contracts. They have seen friends around them return to debt from hundreds of thousands to A9 in a short period of time, and there are many cases of "making money by luck and losing money by skill". Don't take chances.

Let me emphasize my point again: Bitcoin is not a currency, but a commodity.

For example, if you play a game, you need to complete many tasks in the game to get the money in the game. Let's call this game "Bits", and the coins in this game are called "Bitcoin". Is it valuable to have a lot of bitcoins in bitgames? Yes! You can use this coin to buy equipment in the game, such as the hero's sword and the heroine's beautiful clothes.

without the game, is this "bit game coin" still valuable? There will be more.

For example, a person who plays the same game doesn't have this "bit game coin". He either plays the game hard to earn money himself, and another way is to buy it from you. Buy from you in real RMB or US dollars, or in any currency issued by any country.

Is this "coin of the bit game" money after all? Or a commodity? Actually, it's clear. In the real world, it is a commodity that can be bought and sold. In the game world, it is money.

bitcoin, isn't it? In the real world, it is priced in dollars and is a commodity. In the bit circle, it is a currency.

I have argued many times that bitcoin is the currency or game equipment in the game. You can search related articles if you are interested. The key word should be "Sun Jianbo+Bitcoin+Game Equipment".

In this way, the future of Bitcoin depends on the players and believers of this game. A game with many players and firm believers, in which game coins and game equipment are valuable. The future 1 laws of bitcoin

Bitcoin is electronic cash similar to email, and both parties need a "bitcoin wallet" similar to email and a "bitcoin address" similar to email address. Just like sending and receiving e-mail, the sender pays bitcoin directly to the other party according to the recipient's address through a computer or smart phone. The concept of BitCoin was first put forward by Satoshi Nakamoto in 29. According to Satoshi Nakamoto's ideas, open source software and P2P network were designed and released. Bitcoin is a P2P digital currency. In 221, Bitcoin, like a strong Xiaoqiang, not only failed to crash, but broke through the $23, mark and hit a record high again. There are many reasons why Bitcoin can recover strongly.

1. The law of decreasing personal money holdings

In the long run, everyone's money holdings will inevitably decrease. In the past 1 years, Bitcoin has been rising. Every time it goes from cow to bear, Bitcoin will fall by 8% to 9%. Then every time it goes from bear to cow, the highest difference can reach a hundred times, which means that every bull-bear cycle, the vertex of Bitcoin will move up 1 times. Judging from the valuation of legal tender by Bitcoin, it is increasingly difficult for ordinary people to afford 1 coins, which was unimaginable in the past. We used to "buy one by one". I believe that this difficulty will become less and less discussed after one or two cycles, because everyone will discuss "whether you can hold one coin".

why do you say that the number of bitcoins held by everyone is always decreasing? Because the price of bitcoin continues to rise, and the range is huge, whenever you lack legal tender and try to sell it to do something, you will find that no matter what you do in the real world, the legal tender you earn can't buy back the same amount of bitcoin. Therefore, there are indeed a few people who become rich by bitcoin, but the coins in their hands are also getting less and less. Many years ago, some people I knew had more than 5, yuan, or even more than 1, yuan. By the end of the last cycle, these people had almost disappeared.

why did I say that I didn't get rich either? I sold a certain amount of coins because I needed funds at a certain time, but later I found that I could never change them back anyway. So don't think how rich people who entered in the early stage are, and it is almost impossible to keep money in the long run-2 times can not be sold, 1 times can not be sold? Do you want to sell it at 5 times and 1 times? Do you want to sell it at 2 times and 5 times? Everyone always has a price in mind, which leads to the second point.

If you have never bought it, you must buy some and try it. If you have bought it before and intend to clear the warehouse, then leaving a bottom warehouse will not affect your realization of 99% of the coins, right? You can hold a few thousand dollars, and where can you lose? But if it goes up, it has no ceiling. This kind of investment product with limited losses and unlimited multiples, which has been proved by a history of 1 years, why can't it be allocated a little? Configure more if you like, and less if you are afraid, but more or less, it should also be the best target of one end of Taleb barbell strategy, right?

why do you ignore it again and again? Is it just because you knew it early, but didn't hold it, so holding it at the current price can't give you an explanation, so you can only desperately hope that it will fall? If your hopes were useful, you would already be the richest man in the world, which is irrational.

2. Law of Price Fluctuation

Do you know how many variables there are in a time span of three years? To borrow Doctor Strange's words: I saw 14 million results. Therefore, all those who try to predict the price trend in three years are either liars or fools. This is the uncertainty of price fluctuation.

everyone has something to do, and he will sell it at the price that can do it. Some people want to buy luxury cars, some people want to buy luxury houses, some people want to create a career, and some people want financial freedom. In short, he will definitely sell them. Therefore, in theory, the higher bitcoin rises, the fewer coins with higher income multiples, and the smaller the impact on the total holding cost, and the transaction volume of bitcoin has been continuously enlarged in the past 1 years, so the maximum coin cost must be those closest to the current price. You don't have to be jealous of those who entered this market many years ago, and feel as if "it's unfair to distribute wealth simply by entering in the morning and evening". It's unnecessary. As I have said, it's impossible to keep coins in the long run. No one who entered early still has those tens of thousands of times of coins, except Satoshi Nakamoto himself. Therefore, the average cost of bitcoin holders is always close to the current price.

some money hoarders will say that it is always right to hold bitcoin. Indeed, from the historical point of view, this is no problem, but it does not mean that it will remain so in the future. The current market value of Bitcoin has exceeded RMB 2 trillion. Although this is not high for a borderless investment product, if the bull market peak of this cycle can really rise 1 times on the basis of the present, it will be 2 trillion, which has surpassed the total market value of gold reserves in the world.

will an asset of this size move 1 times or 1 times? So I once said that this cycle may be the last time for ordinary people to participate in the "bitcoin that has skyrocketed and plummeted", which is why. Bitcoin is either dead, and now the probability is extremely small, or it really reaches one of the assets that mainstream institutions can allocate, and it becomes an ordinary investment product, and it will no longer be the product at the end of the barbell strategy. Ordinary people want to fight for the positive black swan, they have to find a new target. Bitcoin will no longer fluctuate 1 times and 1 times one day.

there are many reasons for price fluctuation. Perhaps in the eyes of investors, cryptocurrency has been regarded as an effective means to fight inflation, and fighting inflation has become the key reason for mainstream investment institutions to enter the cryptocurrency field in a big way, especially savvy institutional investors. Since its inception, Bitcoin has been regarded as an excellent value storage tool. The deflation halved in May 22 highlighted the scarcity of Bitcoin, and the audience of Bitcoin has been more than ever before. As Chainanalysis, an encryption analysis company, reported in November this year: "Most investors who buy bitcoin for the first time want to hedge the devaluation brought by the statutory macroeconomic trend. They hope to hedge the inflation brought by legal tender with bitcoin and fight inflation is the most vigorous demand at present." In 22, institutions completely changed their position on investing in Bitcoin, and their demand for gold was declining. Such a change may be permanent. Unlike in 217, the soaring bitcoin was mainly driven by speculative activities, while the bull market in 22 seemed to be guided by calm and shrewd senior investors. To put it bluntly, the relationship between supply and demand is decisive, and everything else is empty. Now large institutions only buy and don't sell, and the supply is in short supply; 2 thousand bitcoin old money doesn't care, what about 3 thousand and 1 thousand If a large organization operates well, it will be as strong as a diamond.

Some people think that the rapid growth of bitcoin price in this round is fundamentally different from the growth in 217. The growth factors this time include a more friendly regulatory environment, a more stable market infrastructure and the entry of institutional investors, while the growth in 217 was mainly the result of speculation by retail users in the market. So this time the growth has a more solid foundation. Although the price trend of Bitcoin will still fluctuate greatly in the future, its growth trend is positive.

people sigh, I can't count how many times it has been predicted to crash. After more than ten years, it has grown into something you can't afford. In 221, it didn't collapse, but it was milked. Currency overshoot is an addiction. As long as the US dollar keeps printing, Bitcoin will not fall.

3. The ceiling law

There is an awkward development period in the game, and so is the price of Bitcoin. The chaotic development period is a period when the price growth is not disturbed. At this time, if no one is disturbed, it means that the price will continue to rise for some time. Once the mainstream irrelevant media have discovered Bitcoin and started to report it, there will be several times of upswing in a short time, because there will be a large amount of incremental cash pouring into the market, but there are often few months left before the peak. At the earliest, it was 1, RMB, and the media began to report it. Then bitcoin surpassed 1 ounce of gold, and bitcoin broke through the 1, yuan mark, and the media began to report it; Later, it broke through $1,, and the media began to report it; Now it has exceeded 1, RMB, and the media are not surprised. So if you ask me like the title, how long can Bitcoin go up?

that should be a long time. Whenever the mainstream media come out to make a fuss, it is necessary to start the index day, because the widespread spread of the wealth effect of Bitcoin by the mainstream media will lead to a large influx of incremental funds, and this entry will further push up the price of Bitcoin, which will further become the material of the media, and then spread to people who don't know Bitcoin at all, so that they will finally rush into the venue one day.

at this time, the price of bitcoin will reach the peak of the cycle, because even Xiaobai has come in, so no matter how the media spreads, it is difficult for more people to enter the market with more money, and the pressure of profit realization is greater than the support of buying, so the cow turns to bear. This is the case in every cycle, and it is the "price when the mainstream media is heavily involved" that determines the peak of bitcoin price in every cycle. Usually, this price will almost collapse when multiplied by 3 or 4 times, and these times will be completed in a very short time.

the "awkward price range" of bitcoin determines the ceiling of the cycle. As far as it is concerned, tulips have not started, and when they rise to sky-high prices but have no practical value, it should be the time to fall sharply and return to their original value.

4. Fengkou Pig Law

Over the years, I have never seen an asset that increases in value faster than Bitcoin. Everyone says how many times the real estate in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen has risen. I often envy those who got on the bus in the early days. I also have some real estate, but compared with the value-added ratio of Bitcoin in my hand, it is nothing. Some people say that if I travel back in time, I will definitely buy a house in xx, stocks in xx and bitcoin in xx. Wrong, if.