In an interview, he said, "I think the interest rate in the United States will rise to 9% for the simple reason that if the inflation rate is 8%, then according to the rules, you must raise the interest rate to a level higher than the inflation rate."
Mai Pusi is the co-founder of MobiusCapitalPartners. He previously worked in Franklin Templeton Investment Company, a large investment institution, for more than 30 years. His investment performance in emerging markets has won him many global praises.
It is reported that Maples' prediction may refer to Taylor's law. Taylor rule is a formula put forward by john tyler, an economist at Stanford University, which describes how short-term interest rates can be adjusted according to inflation and output changes.
However, Mapps' current forecast is much higher than investors' and the Fed's own expectations of raising interest rates. According to CME FedWatch, investors expect the federal funds rate to reach 5% in early 2023. The summary of the economic forecast released by the Federal Reserve in September shows that policymakers expect to raise the benchmark interest rate to a peak of 4.6%.
Investors now expect that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at 1 1, and may raise interest rates again at 65438+2. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate from 0% to 3%-3.25% this year, which had a serious impact on the financial market. The U.S. stock market has fallen into a bear market because of soaring loan interest rates, and investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may trigger a recession.
However, Mai Pusi also pointed out that "if CPI drops, his expectation of interest rate will be dashed, but I don't think this will happen in the short term."
He also said that he would sell companies with high debt equity and low return on capital. He said, "As interest rates rise, anyone with high debts will get into trouble."