Buffett's rule is Warren? Buffett's 42-year successful investment career has always adhered to unique rules, and its core essence includes value investment, marginal safety principle, concentrated investment portfolio, long-term holding of equity and so on. Investors who adhere to Buffett's law, such as Keynesian Munger, have achieved a return on investment that exceeds the broader market. Considering the grim fact that 90% investors in the American stock market have not made profits in the context of the big bull market that has risen by 10 times in the past 20 years, it is almost impossible to obtain a long-term return on investment beyond the broader market. History has proved that Buffett's rule is the golden rule in the investment field.
However, although Buffett's law is well known to investors, few people successfully apply Buffett's law. What is the reason?
The biggest difficulty in the implementation of Buffett's law lies in two aspects, one is the understanding and transcendence of human nature, and the other is the professionalism of investment value judgment. The former involves the mystery of human psychology, and the latter involves the insight into the business operation behind the stock (discussed in another article). There are living people behind any investment market, so studying their psychology is a unique perspective to gain insight into the investment market.
Intuitive judgment and four kinds of delusional thinking
"Charlie and I haven't learned how to solve the company's problems. Our success lies in focusing on the one-foot fence we can cross, rather than trying to cross the seven-foot fence. "
Buffett also insists on investing in industries he is familiar with. He admits that the reason why he doesn't invest in high-tech companies is that he can't understand and evaluate them.
An important discovery of psychology is human intuition, as the French philosopher Pascal said: "Spiritual activities have their own reasons, but reason cannot know." People's thinking, memory and attitude all operate at two levels at the same time, one is conscious and intentional, and the other is unconscious and automatic. We know more than we know.
Intuition is the result of gene optimization in the long-term evolution of human beings, and it is a psychological shortcut for human beings to react and deal with problems. Fear, greed, optimism and pessimism in the stock market are unconscious and automatic intuitive reflections, which are human nature. Why do people chase up (greed) and kill down (fear) crazily? Why does the stock market keep repeating the cycle of irrational prosperity and irrational depression? Because of intuition and nature.
Everything has two sides. On the one hand, intuitive judgment saves human spiritual resources, on the other hand, it also brings illusion thinking to human beings. Intuition, because of its sensitivity, immediacy and established mode response, has obvious limitations in making judgments and decisions, which leads to people's wrong thinking, such as wise prejudice afterwards, over-sensitivity effect, fixed belief, overconfidence tendency, etc., which has been fully reflected in stock market investment decision-making.
1. hindsight bias
The so-called hindsight bias means that people tend to use the results after the incident to understand the cause and process of the incident. "Being wise after the event" refers to this phenomenon. People tend to ignore the natural advantages of ex post facto understanding and further belittle the complexity and difficulty of ex post facto decision-making. The prejudice of hindsight is universal and part of human nature. This illusion makes it easy to overestimate one's own ability and underestimate the ability of others.
Buffett tried to avoid making such mistakes in investment. In fact, in the 1960s, he made a mistake against Berkshire. Hathaway's investment (mainly in the textile industry) taught Buffett a great lesson. In the 1980s, he was forced to close down the textile business which was losing money continuously. This has formed Buffett's very important investment criteria, that is, investing in companies that maintain consistent operating principles and avoiding companies that are in trouble. Don't overestimate yourself, expect yourself to do better than the operators of the company and turn losses into profits. "Charlie and I haven't learned how to solve the company's problems," Buffett admitted. "But we have learned how to avoid these problems. Our success lies in focusing on the one-foot fence we can cross, rather than finding a way to cross the seven-foot fence. "
2. Over-sensitivity effect
Over-sensitivity effect refers to people's psychological tendency to overestimate and exaggerate the factors that just happened, while underestimating the role of other factors that affect the whole system, thus making wrong judgments and excessive behavioral reactions. Sensitivity can make people find abnormal phenomena in time and speed up the reaction, but it will also increase the reaction range and make the reaction overreact.
With the United States "9? 1 1 "event as an example. "9? After the "1 1" incident, the scene of terrorists hijacking a plane and crashing into the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York greatly stimulated the nerves of the American public, so people greatly overestimated the danger of air travel and tended to choose other modes of travel, and the American aviation industry entered the Great Depression. However, statistics show that even considering "9? In the aviation disaster of "1 1" incident, air travel is also the safest of all modes of travel, and its accident rate is one third of that of train travel. The over-sensitivity effect is fully reflected in the investment in the stock market. When the stock market rises, people tend to be too optimistic and tend to believe that the big bull market is endless, so the stock price is pushed up excessively. When the stock market falls, people tend to be too pessimistic and tend to believe that a big bear market is inevitable, so they suppress the stock price excessively. Buffett believes that it is people's irrational behavior that makes the stock price fluctuate excessively around its value, which brings investment opportunities. He believes that good investors should take advantage of this phenomenon, fear when others are greedy (1969, Buffett found that everyone in the stock market was crazy, decisively sold all the stocks and dissolved the investment fund), and be greedy when others are afraid (after the US stock market plunged into a bear market in 1973 and 1974, Buffett bargained. Buffett believes that "the decline of the stock market is not a bad thing in some cases, and investment opportunities are revealed from the ebb of investment."
3. The phenomenon of belief fixation
The phenomenon of fixed belief means that once people have established a certain belief in something, especially a theoretical support system for it, it is difficult to break people's views, and even when contrary evidence and information appear, they often turn a blind eye. From a psychological point of view, the more people try to prove that their theories and explanations are correct, the more closed they are to information that challenges their beliefs.
Belief fixation is a very important psychological phenomenon in stock investment. Stock investors tend to predict the rise and fall of the stock market and the fluctuation of the stock price, and various securities analysis institutions also obtain income by predicting the fluctuation of the stock price. However, people often fall into the trap of fixed beliefs, ignoring the emergence of Man Cang's down signal and the accumulation of short-selling factors. Buffett sees through this misunderstanding, advocates understanding the difference between investment and speculation, and thinks that rational investment should not be irrational speculation. It should be said that this is the essence of Buffett's law-value investment.
Keynes, Graham and Buffett all explained the difference between investment and speculation. Keynes thought: "Investment is an activity to predict future returns of assets, while speculation is an activity to predict market psychology." For Graham, "the investment operation is based on thorough analysis to ensure the safety of the principal and obtain satisfactory returns." An operation that cannot meet this requirement is speculation. Buffett believes: "If you are an investor, what you care about is the future development and changes of assets-in our case, the company. ".If you are a speculator, you mainly predict price changes independently of the company. According to the above standards, the China stock market is still a speculative market.
4. Overconfidence tendency
Overconfidence tendency refers to the phenomenon of intellectual conceit when people judge past knowledge, which will affect the evaluation of current knowledge and the prediction of future behavior. Although we know that we have made mistakes in the past, we are still quite optimistic about the future. The main reason for overconfidence is that people tend to recall their wrong judgment when they are completely right, so that they think it is just an accident and has nothing to do with their own ability defects. The tendency of overconfidence affects almost everyone. Johnson's overconfidence plunged the United States into the quagmire of the Vietnam War in the 1960s. Alison's overconfidence led to the century-long bankruptcy of Bahrain Bank. It can be said that the tendency of overconfidence is the biggest enemy of human rational decision-making, and this tendency is also easy to give people the illusion of control. Just like a gambler, once he wins, he owes it to his gambling skills and foresight. Once he lost, he thought that "he almost made it, or was unlucky." From a rational point of view, gambling and buying lottery tickets are a lost game in probability, but there are still countless gamblers and lottery players who are addicted to it because of the illusion of control.
It is not easy to really get rid of the tendency of overconfidence and surpass yourself. The vast majority of stock investors firmly believe that they can judge the ups and downs of the market, and gain income by "buying on dips and selling on rallies", which will far exceed the increase of the market index. Ironically, according to statistics, 90% of investors (including institutional investors) lag behind the growth of the market index. Although this statistic is such obvious evidence, people still believe that they have the ability to be that part of 10% investors, and refuse to accept the stupid stock index fund portfolio, thinking that this is a humiliation of self-intelligence. Buffett is well aware of his limitations and thinks that the market is unpredictable. What he can grasp is the company value evaluation behind the stock and the forecast of future earnings, so he never expects to benefit from forecasting the market.
In addition, Buffett still insists on investing in industries he is familiar with. He admits that the reason why he doesn't invest in high-tech companies is that he can't understand and evaluate them. In Berkshire? At the annual meeting of Hathaway 1998, he said, "I admire Andy very much? Grove and Bill? Gates, and hope to turn this admiration into action through financial support. But when it comes to Microsoft and Intel, I don't know what the world will be like in ten years, and I don't like to play the game dominated by each other. I spend all my time thinking about technology, but I may still be the smart person who analyzes this industry 100, 1000 or even 10000. Some people in this industry can analyze, but I can't. "
Conformity and group polarization
He not only insists on independent thinking in investment decision-making, but also reuses the operators who resist the inertia of the industry in the invested companies.
Conformity means that people are influenced by others and change their behaviors and beliefs. The lemming operation is a typical case of conformity. This small animal growing in the Arctic will commit suicide by jumping into the sea collectively whenever its population reaches a certain level. In the conformity research experiments made by social psychologists, human beings also show a strong conformity tendency.
Conformity will lead to group polarization effect, that is, the mutual influence of group members can strengthen the initial views and beliefs of group members. There are two reasons for group polarization effect. First of all, group members tend to be consistent with other members' behaviors and beliefs in order to gain group identity and sense of belonging. Second, when group members are not sure about the events that need to be decided, it is often safe for them to imitate and obey others' behaviors and beliefs.
The polarization effect of conformity and group is fully reflected in human investment activities. People's investment behavior is often influenced by others. When most investors fall into greed and madness, few investors can calmly and rationally resist the temptation to buy; And when most investors are in fear and desperately kill down, few investors can resist the impulse to sell. The pressure of conformity is enormous. However, wise investment decisions are often "unexpected and reasonable" decisions. The investment value of the hot plate you see has usually been overdrawn in advance, and smart investors generally keep observing and tracking the stocks with investment value. When their share price falls within a reasonable range (ignored by most investors), they will eat it decisively. Obviously, this requires not only professional value evaluation, but also the firm will to resist the pressure of conformity and the great courage to be the first in the world. Buffett's teacher Graham once taught him to get out of the emotional whirlpool of the stock market and find out the irrational behavior of most investors. They buy stocks not based on logic, but on emotion. If you draw a logical conclusion on the basis of correct judgment, then don't give up because others don't agree with you. "You are right or wrong not because others disagree with you, but because your data and logical reasoning are correct." Buffett follows the teacher's instructions. He not only insists on independent thinking in investment decision-making, but also reuses the operators who resist industry inertia in the invested companies, and regards resisting industry inertia as one of the most important investment criteria he summarized in 12. In a speech to the business school students of Notre Dame University, he summed up the reasons why 37 investment banks failed: "Why did they end up like this? I tell you, it is foolish to imitate the behavior of peers. "
Rational judgment based on reasonable data and logic, never moved by other people's views; He only invests in industries and companies that he can understand, does research on the company himself, and never relies on other people's judgment. He compared investment activities to fighting.
Baseball, he thinks it is easier to invest than to play baseball. Playing baseball is about hitting every shot, and investing only needs to hit those balls that are most sure to hit. You just need to lie down and rest before the right ball is thrown. It can be said that Buffett is one of the few people who have the rationality and courage to climb out of the cave of false information and gain the light of rationality.
Information Cave and Truth
He never looks at the so-called authoritative securities analysis on Wall Street, nor is he keen to collect gossip that affects the stock market everywhere.
Some foreign experts on Iraq pointed out that former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein? Hussein was born a commoner, smart and capable, and seized the supreme power of the country through struggle. However, he made two key and important decision mistakes, which cost him his life. One is the invasion of Kuwait, based on the judgment that the United States will not intervene by force; The second time was to take a tough stance on nuclear weapons, which was based on an overestimation of the country's armed forces. Why would a shrewd man like Saddam make such a mistake? According to experts' analysis, Saddam Hussein is actually an information caveman. All the information he comes into contact with is monopolized by senior Iraqi officials. They often distort, process and block information according to their own interests, or report good news instead of bad news to keep their official position. So Saddam stayed in the cave of false information, unable to see the truth outside the cave, and it was natural to make wrong judgments and decisions based on false information.
Investors are typical information cavemen. The investment market is active in exchanges, major shareholders and management of listed companies, public and private funds, securities companies, ordinary investors, investment consulting institutions, media, banks, lawyers and audit firms, forming a huge ecosystem. Everyone is at a certain link in the food chain, and for their own vital interests, they often publish, manufacture, exaggerate and distort information consciously or unconsciously. Because information publishers "cut" the content of information, many people are manipulated by false or one-sided information and make wrong investment decisions. A typical example is that executives of listed companies collude with bankers, cooperate with bankers to manipulate stock prices, produce financial data, and publish false news, which ultimately damages ordinary retail investors. In addition, ordinary investors lack the support of professional knowledge and are more likely to be fooled by identifying complex information. For example, the contraction effect of China's planned issuance of 1.55 trillion special government bonds in the previous stage was overestimated, while the seemingly low CPI index (3.2 percentage points) in the first half of this year made ordinary investors underestimate the possibility of inflation, which was mainly due to the unreasonable composition of China's CPI index.
Buffett clearly understands this. He never looks at the so-called authoritative securities analysis on Wall Street, nor is he keen to collect gossip that affects the stock market everywhere. He doesn't stare at the changes of the disk nervously every day, which makes his investment work very easy. Sometimes he even enjoys family happiness at home while working. On the day when the American stock market crashed in the late 1980s, he didn't even have time to pay attention to the stock market. Buffett only believes in himself.
How to deal with the weakness of human nature
Postpone investment decisions as much as possible and avoid all impulsive decision-making behaviors, which should be an effective way to remain rational and wise.
Objectively speaking, intuition, conformity and other human nature are not absolute shortcomings. Our subjective experience is the material that constitutes human nature, and it is the source of human feelings about art and music, friendship and love, mystery and religious experience. However, it must be admitted that the above-mentioned human nature will cause delusional thinking, wrong judgment and wrong behavior, which is vividly manifested in investment activities. The core of Buffett's law is not his 12 investment law. Any so-called investment principle will fail with the passage of time, and only the real principles and laws behind it are eternal. It is this eternal law and logic that Buffett overcomes and uses in his investment activities. Human nature is called human nature because it comes from itself and is difficult to overcome, but there are still ways to deal with it. People can cultivate themselves from four dimensions: attitude, reflection, trial and error and time, overcome human weakness and obtain satisfactory investment returns.
First of all, a correct attitude is the basis for overcoming psychological weakness.
We should face up to and admit that human beings are limited, and this self-modesty and doubt about human ability are the core of science and religion. Social psychologist David? Miles has a wonderful exposition on this. "Science also includes the interaction between intuition and rigorous testing. Seeking reality from fantasy requires open curiosity and a cool head. The following viewpoints have been proved to be the correct attitude towards life: criticism without cynicism, curiosity without deception, openness without manipulation. " It is also very important to establish this attitude in investment activities. It is necessary to maintain the doctrine of the mean and avoid extremes. If you can't keep a curious and open mind, you can't get the information related to investment decision to the maximum extent, you can't find the change of environment and the formation of new laws as soon as possible, and you can't seize the fleeting investment opportunities; If you can't treat all the information with a critical attitude, you will easily be deceived and manipulated by others, thus falling into countless investment traps.
Secondly, reflection is the way to overcome psychological weakness.
As Socrates famously said, "An unexamined life is not worth living." Reflection and summary are the source of human progress and an important method to improve the success rate of investment activities and investment decisions. The French philosopher Pascal realized that "any single truth is not sufficient, because the world is very complicated. Any truth can only be regarded as a part of the truth if it is divorced from the complementary truth. " There is nothing absolutely right in the world. Don't be overconfident before making any investment decisions. We must think from the perspective of opposing this investment decision, try to put forward the reasons and reasons for opposition, or consult other investors, especially pay attention to the opinions of opponents. This kind of reflection and multiple thinking will greatly improve, enrich and correct your investment decision, and improve the quality of investment decision.
Third, trial and error is a means to overcome psychological weakness.
Human beings are bounded and rational, and the investment market is complex and changeable. It is impossible for people to exhaust all the information and laws needed for investment decisions. Therefore, the effective means to test the correctness of investment decisions is trial and error, trying to invest in possible investment methods and objects, and putting investment methods and methods into practice to test. The criticism of trial and error may lie in two points: first, the cost of trial and error is too high, and second, the timeliness of investment has been lost when investment opportunities are discovered. The countermeasures to the first criticism are: when the investment decision is confirmed to be effective, reduce the chips of trial and error and make big investments; The response to the second criticism is the choice of trial and error test objects, not specific investment objects (such as specific stocks), but the test of investment rules and philosophy (such as the investment rules of high-tech stocks).
Finally, mastering the investment decision-making time is a supplement to overcome psychological weakness.
The psychological nature of human beings is extremely sensitive to time. In the struggle between reason and sensibility, with the passage of time, sensibility tends to change from strong to weak, and reason tends to change from weak to strong. Most people's mistakes are caused by impulse. People often do something on impulse and regret it afterwards. This is mainly because when things just happen, people will exaggerate the factors that lead to things, while ignoring the importance of other factors, leading to thinking deviation and decision-making mistakes. This is also common in human investment activities. Ups and downs will greatly stimulate people's nerves, mobilize people's emotions, and make people have the impulse to buy and sell. Investment decisions made on impulse are usually unwise. Therefore, it should be an effective way to stay rational and wise to postpone investment decision-making if possible and avoid all impulsive decision-making behaviors.