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How to make a scientific decision on something

1. Ruffer's Law: Effective prediction is the prerequisite for wise decision-making. Without prediction activities, there will be no freedom of decision-making.

Analysis: In the ever-changing market tide, faced with a lot of information, how do you make use of it? Only predictions! A successful entrepreneur can predict future market trends from complex information and immediately translate it into decision-making actions. Without forecasting activities, there is no freedom of decision-making.

Shrewd predictions can provide companies with free space for development decisions, allowing information to generate value and turn it into money-making opportunities. If an enterprise wants to develop and improve economic efficiency, it must understand the domestic and foreign economic trends, be familiar with market requirements and understand all aspects related to production and circulation. This requires extensive, timely and accurate grasp of all kinds of information that is beneficial to the development of the enterprise, so that we can have an overall view, foresee the future, strategize and remain invincible.

2. Giedlin's Law: If you recognize the problem and write it down clearly, half of the problem will be solved.

Analysis: Only by recognizing the problem clearly can we solve the problem well.

Everyone will encounter difficulties, both for people and for enterprises. In an ever-changing environment, there is no fixed rule for how to solve problems most effectively. However, success is not without procedures. When you encounter a problem, no matter how you want to solve it, the prerequisite for success is to see clearly the key to the problem. Once you find the key to the problem, you also find the method to solve the problem. The only thing left is how to implement it.

To solve a problem, you must know where the problem lies. Once you see the crux of the problem, you can find a solution to the problem. Therefore, the first thing to do when encountering a problem is to analyze the problem. Only in this way will you be able to solve the problem with ease and get twice the result with half the effort.

3. Watch theorem: Don’t leave employees at a loss

Analysis: The watch theorem means that when a person has a watch, he can know what time it is. When he has two watches at the same time, Watch time, but can't be sure. Two watches cannot tell a person a more accurate time, but will make the person looking at the watch lose confidence in the accurate time.

In terms of business management, it gives us a very intuitive inspiration, that is, the same person or the same organization cannot use two different methods at the same time, and cannot set two different goals at the same time. Even each person cannot be commanded by two people at the same time, otherwise, the company or the person will be at a loss.

Another meaning of the watch theorem is that everyone cannot choose two different values ????at the same time, otherwise, your behavior will be in chaos.

4. Pierce's Law: Being aware of ignorance makes us energetic

Analysis: Being aware of ignorance is the beginning of knowledge.

Really strong people are always good at hiding their strengths. Mature managers should master a kind of management and handling skills that are round on the outside and square on the inside. The more humility means the more opportunities. .

5. Herding effect: Improve your own judgment and do not blindly follow the trend

Analysis: "Herding effect" originally refers to the market behavior of some enterprises in management. Common phenomenon. For example, a flock (collective) is a very scattered organization. Usually everyone rushes left and right together blindly. If a sheep discovers a fertile green pasture and eats fresh grass there, the subsequent sheep will rush up and compete for the grass there, completely ignoring the eager wolves next to them, or not being able to see other other sheep. There is better green grass. The herd effect generally occurs in an industry with fierce competition, and there is a leader (leader) in this industry that occupies the main attention, then the entire herd will continue to imitate every move of this leader, and the leader Wherever the sheep go to graze, other sheep go to dig for gold.

6. Tap water philosophy: Provide customers with high-quality products and prices that consumers can buy, just like tap water.

Analysis: The tap water philosophy is a summary and reflection of Matsushita Konosuke’s life-long business activities.

The core of the tap water philosophy, according to Panasonic, is to always serve the people, that is, through enriching and The ever-increasing supply of materials enables people to achieve stability and happiness in life. He founded Panasonic Electric Co., Ltd. starting from the production of electric fan resistance plates. In the process of operation, he gradually realized the true mission of running a business-to serve the public. This business philosophy always runs through Panasonic's business process.

The fan resistors and wiring equipment produced at the beginning of the company fully reflected this purpose. Later, Panasonic designed and produced plugs for double lamps, cannonball-shaped battery-type lamps, square lamps, iron electric stoves, radios, record players, etc. Supplies provide people with great convenience, and customers rush to buy them.

The meaning of Panasonic’s story is actually quite simple: while providing customers with cheap and high-quality products and services, its own company will also receive substantial development and rich profit returns. Making customers benefit from time to time is the biggest source of profit for an enterprise.

7. Panasonic Dam Management Rules: Be prepared at all times and make ample use of all resources. No matter what difficulties the company encounters, it can grow steadily and in the long term.

Analysis: People build dams mainly to store water. On the one hand, they can block floods, on the other hand, they can provide water sources and play a role in providing energy such as power generation.

A dam stores for the purpose of releasing, and collects for the purpose of releasing. If all departments of the company can be like a dam, stability and development can be maintained even if the external situation changes. Equipment, funds, personnel, inventory, technology, planning, new product development, etc. should all have dams so that ample operational flexibility can be maintained.

In addition to the visible dam, it is also necessary to build an invisible dam. This is the "psychological dam", which can also be called "dam consciousness". This is established from a more basic and important aspect of people's concepts and consciousness. In some specific aspects, "psychological dams" also exist, that is, "awareness of worry", "psychological endurance"

and so on. The business world is changing rapidly and the situation is unpredictable. With this dam, you can stay calm and cope with changes with ease.

8. Buffett's Law: Invest in places with few competitors, hold for a long time, and wait patiently for the growth of the company to create wealth for yourself.

Analysis: Buffett has become a well-known investment guru among investors around the world, and his investment stories are recited everywhere like myths. Over the past 40 years, Buffett has only made a few correct investment decisions to make him the wealth he is today.

In fact, Buffett's investment principle is very simple: only make traditional long-term investments. The reason is: buying and selling stocks is originally a transfer of equity, and those who hold equity are shareholders, and shareholders' equity comes from the profits obtained from business operations. In the long term, the price of a stock depends on and is consistent with the development of the company and the profits created by the company. However, the short-term price will fluctuate significantly due to various factors. No one can predict it consistently and accurately. . Therefore, real stock investment should be to choose a good company that is truly worth investing in, buy its shares at the right price, hold them for a long time, and wait patiently for the growth of the company to create wealth for yourself.

9. Giegler’s theorem: Setting high goals is equivalent to achieving part of the goals. Except for life itself, there is no talent that does not require acquired training.

Analysis: Only by being generous can one become great, and only by having a high starting point can one reach the highest level.

Many people believe that genius or success is predestined. However, there are definitely many more people in the world who are called geniuses than those who actually achieve genius careers. Why? Many people achieve nothing because they lack the motivation to be ambitious, overcome all difficulties, and succeed, and they dare not set a lofty goal for themselves. No matter how talented a person is, if he lacks a determined lofty goal, he will achieve nothing. Setting a high goal is equivalent to achieving part of the goal.

Starting with a high goal in mind means that from the beginning you know where your destination is and where you are now. As you move toward your goals, you can at least be sure that every step you take is in the right direction. Having the ultimate goal in mind from the beginning will allow you to gradually develop a good working method and develop a rational judgment rule and work habits. If you start with the end goal in mind, you will have a different perspective. With a high goal, your life will be half successful.

10. Cabet’s Law: Giving up is sometimes more meaningful than fighting for.

Analysis: Cabet pointed out: Giving up is the key to innovation. Swiss military theorist Fermini has a famous saying: "A good retreat should be rewarded as well as a great victory." Whether individuals or companies, they must learn to give up.

11. The Buridan Effect: Success begins with bold decisions

Analysis: The "Buridan Effect" is derived from a foreign idiom. In the fourteenth century, the French scholastic philosopher Buridan told such a fable when discussing the issue of freedom: "A very hungry donkey stood between two identical bundles of fodder, but it always hesitated. He knew which bundle to eat first, and ended up starving to death." The idiom "Bullydan the Donkey" formed from this fable is used to refer to those who are indecisive. Later, people often referred to the phenomenon of hesitation and difficulty in making decisions as the "Buridan Effect."

12. Pushil's Law: No matter how good a decision is, it cannot withstand delay

Analysis: Too much thinking will prevent quick decision-making. "A good business leader cannot procrastinate and delay decision-making. Because no matter how correct a decision is, if it is made late, it will be wrong."

13. Watson's Law: Put information Put intelligence and intelligence first, and the money will come rolling in.

Analysis: How much you can get often depends on how much you can know.

To remain invincible in the ever-changing market competition, you must accurately and quickly learn all kinds of intelligence: What are the new trends in the market? What new initiatives are competitors taking? ...After obtaining this information, act decisively and quickly, so that it will be difficult for you not to succeed.

14. Hammer's Law: There are no bad deals, only bad traders.

Analysis: Jewish Armand Hammer was born in New York in 1898. In 1917, he took charge of his father's pharmaceutical factory while studying in medical school. Due to his skillful management, he became the only college student millionaire in the United States at that time. He conducted a lot of barter trade with the Soviet Union in the 1920s, and made great gains both in business and in his relationship with Soviet leaders. Later, he got involved in art collection and auction, winemaking, cattle raising, oil and other industries, and achieved extraordinary success in each field. No matter in every aspect, he is a legendary figure. At the age of ninety, he still works more than ten hours a day as chairman of Occidental Petroleum Company and flies hundreds of thousands of kilometers in the air every year. In 1987, he completed "Hammer's Autobiography", which was a condensation of his life's successful experience. In this book, there is Hammer's Law. Hammer's Law says: There are no bad deals, only bad traders.

15. Tunnel vision effect: You cannot lack foresight and insight. Only by having a broad vision can you see high.

Analysis: If a person is in a tunnel, all he sees is a very narrow field of vision in front and back.

Those who know the current affairs are heroes. What matters about a thing is not what it is now, but what it will be in the future. To see the future of things, you must have a high vision. If you see its future clearly and do it unswervingly, your career will be half successful. A wise person will always gain greater benefits while giving up small benefits.

16. Frog Law: Always maintain crisis awareness

Analysis: Put a frog in a cup of boiling water, and the frog will jump out immediately. But put a frog in another cup of warm water and slowly heat it until it boils. The frog will swim comfortably in the cup at first, until it finds that it is too hot and has lost its strength and cannot jump out.

17. Crash theory: It is better to rely on "heroes" than to rely on mechanisms

Analysis: There has always been a "crash theory" in the management world, that is, companies need to rely on daily operations and management. Take appropriate measures to form a complete system to avoid the sudden "crash" of the company's leaders, which will lead to the company's "crash".

For a long time, in the field of business management, people have often worried that the fate of a company is too dependent on a certain leader. He has extraordinary talents, rich resources and full of personal charm. He is the embodiment of the enterprise and the "talisman" of the enterprise. However, once he "crashes and dies", the company will end up like an out-of-control plane with an uncertain end.

18. Occam’s Razor: Don’t artificially complicate things

Analysis: In the 12th century, William of Occam in England advocated “nominalism” and only recognized true Those who exist believe that those empty universal concepts are useless burdens and should be ruthlessly "shaving off". He advocated "Don't add entities unless necessary."

This is often called "Occam's razor" - the principle of simplicity or Occam's razor principle.

Occam’s razor can be further evolved into the law of simplicity and complexity in business management: making things complicated is easy, making things simple is complicated. This law requires that when we deal with things, we must grasp the main essence of the matter, grasp the mainstream, and solve the most fundamental problems. In particular, we must follow nature and not artificially complicate things, so that we can handle things well.

19. Parkinson's Law: Find problems within yourself

Analysis: Parkinson wrote a book called "Parkinson's Law" through long-term investigation and research. In his book, he elaborated on the causes and consequences of agency staff expansion: An incompetent official may have three ways out. The first is to apply for resignation and give up his seat to a capable person; the second is to ask a capable person to assist Work by yourself; the third is to appoint two people with a lower level than yourself as assistants. This first path must never be taken, because it will lose many rights; the second path cannot be taken, because the capable person will become his opponent; it seems that only the third path is most suitable. So, two mediocre assistants shared his work, and he himself gave orders from above. They did not pose a threat to his rights. Since the two assistants were incompetent, they followed suit and found two more incompetent assistants for themselves. By analogy, a leadership system is formed that is bloated, overstaffed, at odds with each other, and inefficient.

This law not only appears in officialdom, but also in many organizations. This Parkinson's phenomenon can be seen. The sense of crisis of power is the root cause of Parkinson's disease.