This year's $65,438+0.9 trillion is superimposed on the $2.2 trillion CARES bill of the Trump administration in March last year and the extra $900 billion fiscal stimulus in June and February last year. In just one year, the US government's fiscal stimulus measures reached $5 trillion. It is equivalent to 25% of the nominal GDP of the United States in the past year and 3 1% of the nominal GDP of China last year.
If the United States releases water like this, will the rest of the world watch the water overflow to its own country? Of course, people don't wait for the harvest.
From March 2020 to now, all countries have greatly increased the amount of printing money, issued additional bonds and lowered interest rates ... Let's get together!
Therefore, since last year, despite the suppression of global economic activities under the epidemic, the excessive development of western currencies has led to a sharp rise in the global prices of basic energy, resources and raw materials, and the prices of commodities and industrial raw materials such as copper, iron ore, crude oil and coal have soared. Since Biden won the election, Brent crude oil has risen by 60%, copper by more than 30%, corn by nearly 40% and soybean by 30%.
As former US Treasury Secretary Connery once famously said, "The dollar is our currency, but this is your problem."
Faced with the "sickle" of the United States, the emerging markets unwilling to be leeks quickly began to respond-the three countries raised interest rates within three days.
According to Bloomberg, Nigeria, Zznja and Argentina may raise interest rates in the second quarter at the earliest.
On March 17, the Brazilian central bank announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from 2% to 2.75%, which was the first time that the Brazilian central bank raised interest rates since July 20 15.
On March 8/kloc-0, the Turkish central bank raised interest rates by 200 basis points to 19%, which was twice the market expectation. As of February this year, the annualized inflation rate in Turkey has risen to 15.6%, and the exchange rate of Turkish lira against the US dollar has depreciated by more than 50% compared with the beginning of 20 18. (The latest news is that Agbal, governor of Turkey's central bank, was dismissed by Turkish President Erdogan for raising interest rates too much, and the lira exchange rate plummeted. )
On March 19, the Russian central bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%.
In February this year, Nigeria's inflation rate reached 17.33%, a four-year high, of which food prices rose by 2 1.79%, the highest increase since the data was released more than a decade ago.
Argentina's economy declined 10% in 2020, and the inflation rate reached 8% in the first two months of this year. Compared with the second half of last year, the average price of fruits in Argentina increased by 228%, the price of potatoes by 1 14%, the average price of meat by 103% and the price of vegetables by 88%.
The signal at this time is: because the United States has flooded the global village, these countries with fragile financial systems are already at high risk of capital outflow, currency depreciation and high inflation!
Once these countries can't survive, their currencies will begin to depreciate sharply, which will be a great blow to China exporters. By then, their import costs will rise rapidly, and our payment security will be difficult to guarantee.
At this point, you may ask, will the RMB exchange rate be affected by this? Borrow the view of Guan Tao, the global chief economist of BOC Securities;
"The relationship between major powers is a long-term logic that affects the RMB exchange rate."
To sum up, there will indeed be a wave of business opportunities in the global village after the flood, and cross-border e-commerce is an absolute bright spot; The world is in crisis because of the flood, and foreign traders need to pay more attention to the changes in raw material prices, inflation and the health of major trading partners!