Suppose we mobilize 225 million people in the United States, and each person will bet 1 dollar tomorrow morning, and guess whether the coin thrown on the ground is heads or tails. The winner can win 1 dollar from the loser. Every day, the loser is eliminated, and the winner puts all the money he won into the next day's bet. After ten mornings of competitions, about 220,000 Americans will win one after another, and each of them will win a prize of $65,438+a little more than 0,000.

Human vanity will make these winners feel complacent. Although they want to be as modest as possible, at cocktail parties, in order to attract the favor of the opposite sex, they will brag about how skilled and talented they are in coin toss.

If the winner gets the corresponding bet from the loser, within ten days, (there will be 265,438+05 winners guessing the pros and cons of the coin for 20 times in a row, and through this series of contests,) each of them will win as much as 65,438+0 dollars with 65,438+0 dollars. The winner of 2 15 won $225 million, which also means that other losers lost $225 million.

These big winners who have just become millionaires will be so happy that they will probably write a book-"How can I earn 1 USD from 1 USD in 20 days by working for 30 seconds every day?" . What's more, they may fly around the country, attend various seminars on the magical skills of coin toss, and take the opportunity to laugh at those university professors who are full of doubts: "If this kind of thing can't happen at all, will our 2 15 big winner fall from the world?"

If1.300 million China people were asked to predict the stock market 20 times, even if they knew nothing about the stock market, there were still about 1.242 people who got it right 20 times. It is conceivable that these 1242 "stock market experts" will be pretentious and pretend to be "stock gods". ...

What am I trying to say? What I want to say is:

If you have successfully predicted the stock market several times, but your prediction basis is wrong, then your prediction is worthless. Any gorilla can do such a thing.

For investors, you should carefully analyze and learn from the so-called master's judgment basis, instead of listening to him with reverence that he accurately predicted how many points the market would reach 1 0 0 years ago or caught a huge bull stock by himself. ...