refute
With reference to the soaring iron ore price in 2007, China's steel industry prospered, and many steel mills in Viet Nam, India, Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe closed down because of the high iron ore price. This will help China's steel industry to export to the global market in 20 15 years (foreign steel mills starved to death in the last round of iron ore inflation).
Even if the international food price rises three times, we in China are not afraid, because the current food price in China is about twice that of the international food price, which is equivalent to the price increase of that part of food imported from China 1.5 times. According to eating a meal, it is 10 yuan, including non-food vegetable 8 yuan and rice 2 yuan. After the price increase, it is 2 * 1.5 = 3 yuan, and the total price after the price increase is 8+3 = 65438. Civil strife is a ghost, do you count it?
Take the global market as an example, the output of iron ore and steel exceeds demand, because the cost problem can be favorable, and the food is far from meeting the demand. The rise of iron ore can be compared with the rise of food prices, but its importance is far from equal.
300 million people in the United States consume 300 million tons of grain, 700 million people in Europe consume 500 million, China consumes 700 million, and the remaining 4.5 billion people consume1400 million tons. The grain supply in the global market is about 654.38+billion tons, and the food security depends on competing for this 654.38+billion tons.
More than 40% of the world's grain output is used as feed for livestock, excluding other crops. If you don't remember starving to death at least 1000W every year before the founding of the People's Republic of China, do you remember the widespread famine in Africa at present? Do you remember the widespread malnutrition in the third world, including China? Of course, if you want to be malnourished like Koreans, you can naturally support yourself.
The idea of single-line analogy of food prices is also quite wonderful. Once the food price rises sharply, do you think that meat, poultry and eggs will not increase in price except rations? Won't the price of vegetables and fruits increase? A combination of various factors, coupled with business speculation, will the existing meal expenses increase several times? The middle class can have no pressure. What about the vast majority of ordinary people? Well, why not eat minced meat? You are so good at math!
Oppose you "300 million people in the United States consume 300 million tons of grain, 700 million people in Europe consume 500 million, China consumes 700 million, and the remaining 4.5 billion people consume1400 million tons. The grain supply in the global market is about 654.38 billion tons, and food security is pinned on competing for that 654.38 billion tons? " -
"The idea of single-line comparison of food prices is also quite wonderful. Once the food price rises sharply, do you think that meat, poultry and eggs will not increase in price except rations? Won't the price of vegetables and fruits increase? A combination of various factors, coupled with business speculation, will the existing meal expenses increase several times? The middle class can have no pressure. What about the vast majority of ordinary people? Well, why not eat minced meat? You are so good at math! " -
I checked the information, and now the global grain output is 2.3 billion tons, of which the international grain trade volume is 530 million tons. China's grain consumption is 605 million tons. There is something wrong with your data,
When we talk about rising food prices, we mean international food prices, which will not affect the prices of domestic vegetables and fruits (the two are not related to each other). You should also understand this. Don't play dumb, will the price of meat, poultry and eggs go up? At present, no. It takes at least two months for food prices to be transmitted to meat products. During this period, it is completely possible to import frozen meat products from abroad to China. As you know, domestic pork has tumbled many times. However, the stable feed price shows that there is no necessary relationship between feed price and pork price, and the price depends on the relationship between supply and demand, not the cost of the product, which you can't deny. Besides, according to WTO rules, there is no quota for meat products in China. Once the domestic price rises, you can buy much cheaper international meat products to suppress the domestic price. If it's really bad, can't you eat less meat? There are so many obese people in China that eating less meat won't kill you in a short time. After this time, hundreds of millions of people starved to death internationally. Without demand, food prices will naturally fall. Actually, I just want to remind you that food prices are very small for personal influence now. Please confirm for yourself that the international food price has tripled. Will there be civil strife?
Do you know what most grain trade is? Most corn and soybeans are used for feed, oil extraction and industrial purposes. There are more than 654.38 billion wheat, and rice is mainly produced in East Asia, Southeast Asia and India, with little trade.
In 20 14, China imported 195 10000 tons of grain (rice, wheat, corn, etc. ) and 71400,000 tons of soybeans. The total import exceeds the combined grain production of France and Australia.
There is a big grain gap, so you can't buy it if you want, but also the market supply and demand? American reports all say that the sharp increase in food imports from China is a threat to world security. Now, when the market is in trouble, we have to wait for you to recover slowly? Even if the government controls it, the reaction will be more obvious.
Why don't you really eat minced meat? Why don't you import meat and pay less attention to it when food is not available? China has a large population here, which means that no supplier can meet the demand. Even if it can import part of it, the increase will be far more than several times. Who's playing dumb?
Any commodity, including grain, will increase in price as long as the supply is tight, and the modern meat, poultry and egg industry that relies on wheat, corn and other feeds will increase immediately, and the output will decrease and the price will increase further, followed by vegetables and fruits (the correlation will increase). Basic necessities are different from ordinary commodities, and their price increases are all related. The reason why the problem is so single is that you don't understand that the modern food industry is based on food (including meat, poultry and eggs). How many food sections in supermarkets are made up of food? You can calculate how many times everything will eventually go to consumers, even if it only goes up a little.
In the past few years, even garlic and salt can be fried n times, and a bowl of instant noodles can be fried to 50 when there is traffic jam on the expressway. The production cycle of grain is so long, once there is a large-scale gap (from the current 2000W to hundreds of millions or even hundreds of millions), do you really think there will be no panic speculation and snapping up?
What if I can't buy it? Still waiting for hundreds of millions of people in the world to starve to death? At present, about 654.38 billion people in the world are hungry, and one person dies of hunger every six seconds on average. On this basis, further widen the gap? Except India, which can't meet its own needs and exports, all developed countries can supply food, and the United States accounts for nearly 1/3. Why should others tighten their belts to supply you? You can live alone with confidence, but you have to expect others to sympathize with you because of such a crucial thing? Do you think people who can't buy food are waiting for starvation or panic robbery in the whole society? All dynasties have regarded food as extremely important, because they all know that it is easy to riot and revolt if they lack food, but those who take peace for granted now forget the tragedies that happened in the past and are happening now.
During the Spring and Autumn Period, Guan Zhong ordered all China people to wear silk, and spent a lot of money to buy it from Lu and Liang, which produced silk, raising the price, so that the people of Lu and Liang changed their farming to mulberry and sericulture. After that, Qi banned silk on the one hand and grain sales on the other. Soon after, there were countless hungry people in the two countries, so Lvliang joined Qi and died, and Qi won without fighting.
Now, constantly breaking through the cultivated land line for development has been repeatedly mentioned by many "people of insight".
In view of your rich content, I will refute them one by one.
1, "2019510,000 tons of grain (rice, wheat, corn, etc. ) and 7 1.4 million tons of soybeans were imported from China. The total import volume exceeds the total grain output of France and Australia. " -
I would like to ask China to import so much grain in 20 14, and it is estimated that it will increase by 5.5% in 20 15, and the total global grain consumption will also increase a lot in 20 15, so why did international food prices plummet in 20 15? (Resources "Why did international food prices fall back to 6 years ago? Why did international food prices fall back to six years ago? Published on September 20 1515 at 09: 40, by Hu Feng)
2 "If the food gap is large, can you buy it?" -
The grain gap is large, and the market can automatically adjust the relationship between supply and demand through price increases. As long as the price rises, poor countries can smuggle food and sell it to China. Don't forget Marx's famous saying, "If there is a profit of 10%, capital will be used everywhere; With a profit of 20%, capital will be active; With 50% profit, capital will take risks; For the profit of 100%, capital dares to trample on all human laws; With a profit of 300%, capital dares to commit any crime, even risking being strangled. " . If the profit from selling grain is high enough, even if foreign laws stipulate that it cannot be sold, foreign capitalists will risk their lives to smuggle grain into China or abolish this law.
3. "American reports all say that the sharp increase in food imports from China poses a threat to world security." -
Please give the name of the reported article, the number of the published periodical, the name of the author and the unit, otherwise your argument is not convincing.
4. "The current market will stir up at the slightest sign, will it wait for you to slow down?" -
Are you writing a novel? Why is language so imprecise? Please describe what trouble happened, otherwise we don't know the degree of market fluctuation. Please give the data and quantifiable parameters (such as the change degree of production and sales data, such as the change degree of price). Please use data to describe how slow it is to wait for you to recover.
5. "Why don't you really eat minced meat? You can't supply food and import meat. How about eating less meat? " -
As long as China's prices rise, there is absolutely no problem with food supply. Please refer to Article 2. Once the domestic meat price rises too fast, there will be less meat control, which is true. China does have less control over meat products, and China importers will soon be able to import large quantities of meat to stabilize domestic meat prices.
6. "The population of China is here, which means there is no supplier to meet the demand. Even if some of it can be imported, it will rise many times. Who is playing dumb? " -
What you said is groundless. Please give me the data. Here is your reference data: at present, the self-sufficiency rate of grain in China is 90%, and it is 97% after deducting soybeans (it is generally believed that soybeans are not food in the world). The grain produced in China is high or low, but the fluctuation is only three or four percentage points. The once-in-a-century grain supply is insufficient, only 1 1% of the consumption, about 50 million tons. If it is completely supplemented by imports, it will need about US$ 654.38+000 billion in foreign exchange, which is less than 1% of China's annual export income. So we have enough money to buy food from the international market. Now the global grain output is 2.3 billion tons, of which the international trade volume of grain is 530 million tons. If China imports 50 million tons, it is less than one tenth of the global grain trade. It will not have much impact on the global grain market. Even if it has an impact, the international food price will rise by three times, because the food price in China is about twice that of the international food price, which is equivalent to 1.5 times that of the food imported from China, and ordinary people in China simply cannot feel it. Are you too confused to count?
7. "The modern meat, poultry and egg industry, which relies on wheat, corn and other feeds, rises immediately, with reduced output and further price increase, followed by vegetables and fruits (increased correlation)." -
This is not necessarily true. The price of meat products depends on the relationship between supply and demand, not the production cost. Will the price of meat rise? You also need to consider the stock of meat products and the number of pigs. China has not set import quotas for meat products according to WTO rules. It is not that the price of pork also rises with the increase of cost. Don't you see that the price of food has been rising slowly in recent years, but pork and eggs have been reduced? Vegetable prices depend on domestic vegetable production. There are frequent natural disasters in China in summer. It is said that the price of vegetables has tripled, but it has nothing to do with international food prices.
8. "If you calculate, even if everything only goes up a little, how many times will it eventually be transferred to consumers?"
The rising price of raw materials does not mean that the price of finished products will double. Let me give you an example. In 2006-2007, the domestic steel price doubled compared with that in 2003, but the automobile price accelerated to decline. In 2003, the original car was 6.5438+10,000 yuan, but in 2007 it was only 70,000 yuan (take Chevrolet Sail, Volkswagen Santana, Volkswagen Jetta and other models as examples).
9. "In the past few years, even garlic and salt can be fried n times, and a bowl of instant noodles can be fried to 50 when there is a traffic jam on the expressway. The production cycle of grain is so long. Once there is a large-scale gap (from the current 2000W to hundreds of millions or even hundreds of millions), do you really think that there will be no panic speculation and snapping up? " -
Garlic salt can be fried n times, because garlic production is small, and the planting place is concentrated in Shouguang vegetable base in Shandong Province. Once farmers think that garlic will not make money this year, a large number of garlic will not be planted next year, which will lead to bad storage of garlic and garlic next year, which will lead to skyrocketing prices and take more than half a year to return to normal. The price increase of salt is caused by people's ignorance and looting, but because the output and storage of salt are larger than garlic, the price will return to normal in just five days, and the output and storage of grain are billions of times that of salt. It is estimated that the price will return to normal within 1 day after the panic. We are not afraid of panic hype and panic buying, because we have US dollars in hand, and there is no food in this world that money can't buy, such as instant noodles and a bowl of 50 yuan's, which we can afford. Drivers on the highway will not be disturbed by this.
By the way, a bowl of instant noodles can be fried to 50 when there is a traffic jam on the expressway. Although this is an example, in fact, before 2008, in many places in China where there were no expressways, such as Medog County, it was very normal for a bowl of instant noodles made in 5 yuan to be sold to 50 yuan all the year round. I don't see any civil strife.
10 "What if I can't buy it?" -
If the price rises, it will be available naturally, which will lead some countries to sell food to China through smuggling and other channels. Let me give you an example. 198 1 year, there was a food crisis in the Soviet Union, but the United States was an enemy country that contained the Soviet Union, sanctioned the Soviet Union, and stuck the Soviet Union's neck. However, after months of hard struggle, the Reagan administration finally fulfilled its campaign promise and lifted the food embargo on the Soviet Union in April. The Americans decisively changed their policies and lifted the food embargo on the Soviet Union in June. Why is this happening? Don't forget that American politics is controlled by capitalists Marx famously said, "If there is a profit of 10%, capital will be used everywhere; With a profit of 20%, capital will be active; With 50% profit, capital will take risks; For the profit of 100%, capital dares to trample on all human laws; With a profit of 300%, capital dares to commit any crime, even risking being strangled. " . In fact, the Soviet Union has imported American grain many times since the 1960s, but the United States exported it in the form of smuggling. 198 1 year, smuggling has just been legalized.
1 1. "Still waiting for hundreds of millions of people in the world to starve to death? At present, about 654.38 billion people in the world are hungry and starve to death in an average of 6 seconds. " -
Since the data, no matter how cheap the food price is, people have starved to death. The reason is not the shortage of grain production, but the existence of a large number of low-income people in the third world due to various reasons, such as serious exploitation, lack of dollars in hand, foreign exchange control and so on. I can guarantee that even if the food price drops to 1%, there will still be people starving to death, because the poor countries don't have US dollars, or the rulers have bought more than 200 top-class sports cars as collectibles with US dollars (see North Korea).
In addition, you can't deny that the world's food waste is very serious, and the lost food is enough to feed another 2 billion people, which is enough to prove that there is no gap in world food.
12. "What about further widening the gap on this basis?" -
Since there is no grain gap in the world (reference point 1 1), how can China import grain to widen the gap?
13. "The main food suppliers are developed countries, and the United States accounts for nearly1/3"—
To correct your common sense mistake, not all developed countries in the world export food, and developing countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, Poland, Vietnam and Thailand also account for about half of international food exports.
In addition, the export share of the United States in the international rice market is almost zero, so China does not need to rely on the United States to import ration rice at all.
14. "Why should others save money for you?" -
In 20 15, China imported 5.32 million tons of rice from Viet Nam, Pakistan, Thailand, Bangladesh, Myanmar and other countries. Why do other countries tighten their belts to supply China? To put it bluntly, just one word "money".
Refer to my refutation of your article 10, and just remember Marx's famous words.
15. "You can live with confidence, but you still expect others to pity you for such a life-and-death event?" -
Let's make an analogy. You can quit your job and go back to the countryside. Obviously, you can farm and produce your own food, and you can live with confidence. But why do you expect others (farmers in China) to pity you and sell it to you?
16. "When you really can't buy food, do you think the whole society is waiting for starvation or panic robbery?" -
As long as there is money, there is no food in this world that money can't buy. You must also admit that China's foreign exchange reserves rank first in the world, and international food prices have skyrocketed. Those who have no money or food in hand starve to death first, because we have the most money in hand, so we starve to death at last. Japan died before us. You need not worry too much.
17. "All dynasties have regarded food as extremely important, because they all know that riots and rebellions are easy to occur without food, but those who take peace for granted now forget the tragedies that happened in the past and are happening now." -
In ancient times, in times of famine, the government often restricted food prices and stipulated that prices could not be raised. Such intervention leads to no market for food prices, unprofitable food from other places, and reluctance to flow into disaster areas. On the contrary, it aggravated the disaster and triggered riots and rebellions. This has happened many times in history, not because the whole country has no food, but because stupid policies are the root of riots and rebellions.
18. "In the Spring and Autumn Period, Guan Zhong ordered all the people in the country to wear silk, and spent a lot of money to buy it from Lu and Liang, which produced silk, raising the price, so that Lu and Liang could cultivate fields for profit and switch to mulberry and sericulture. After that, Qi banned silk on the one hand and grain sales on the other. Soon after, countless hungry people appeared in the two countries. Since then, Lvliang joined Qi and died. Qi won without fighting. Now, constantly breaking through the cultivated land line for development has been repeatedly mentioned by many "people of insight". " -
First of all, the origin of this story is questionable. This story is called "Catch the Silk and Fall into Lvliang", which comes from The Warring States Policy. Although it is customary to classify Warring States Policy as a historical work, it is quite different from Zuozhuan and Guoyu. There are many records that are not credible as historical facts. -Quoted from Baidu Encyclopedia
Secondly, there were many merchants and countries selling grain at that time. How is it possible that a state of Qi doesn't sell grain and Liang can't buy food to eat? What nonsense logic. These short stories are like chicken soup for the soul. At first glance, they are reasonable, but they can't stand scrutiny.
I refuted so many of your articles. I'll ask you again, does it count in the end?
Also, did you return the lesson "Price depends on supply and demand, not on cost" that does not require arithmetic ability in the political textbook of senior two to the teacher?
For the last time, civil strife is a ghost. Do you count or not?