The way we think will determine the efficiency and effectiveness of what we do. A good mental model is like a navigation that can guide us on the right path. Many people's thinking mode is too single, with insufficient information and insufficient depth and breadth of thinking. As a result, it is difficult to make correct judgments. This requires multiple thinking models. There are several books on multiple thinking models.
"Poor Charlie's Almanac"
The first is "Poor Charlie's Almanac" by Charlie Munger. In addition to pluralistic thinking, this book also has a lot of content about investment. Here I only talk about pluralistic thinking. Charlie Munger was also the first to advocate pluralistic thinking. The discussion of mental models in the book is that each mental model is actually equivalent to a tool in your brain for making decisions. The more tools you have, the better you can make the right decision.
And single thinking often only thinks from one direction, or a certain dimension, just thinking and analyzing problems from a single right or wrong, good or bad, which is also a large part of our lives. People’s thinking habits. In fact, many problems in reality are complex and need to involve many aspects, and cannot be solved just by applying a fixed theoretical thinking mode. Munger proposed that you must study these models carefully and turn them into skills that you can use at any time.
Furthermore, Munger proposed that an objective and rational attitude requires independent thinking; to cultivate oneself into a lifelong self-learner through extensive reading; to cultivate curiosity and strive to make oneself a little smarter every day; to master various aspects skillfully. The thinking model of a large subject; if you want to become smart, the question you must keep asking is? Why, why, why, the pursuit of constantly looking for better ways of thinking.
In this book, Munger's universal wisdom is that experience must be hung on a framework composed of many mental models in the mind. This makes it necessary to have multiple mental models - because if you can only use one or two, you will distort reality until it fits your mental model, or at least until you think it fits your model. However, when your perception conflicts with the facts, it is your perception that should change, not the facts. So that's the importance of having models that span many disciplines.
Charlie Munger said that if we master the multiple thinking model system, we can gradually improve our understanding of things. How to do this? Munger mentioned in a speech that to do this, “You must know the important principles of important subjects and use them frequently—all of them, not just a few. Most people only use the The thinking model of a subject, such as economics, attempts to use one method to solve all problems." And to quote the proverb, to a man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail. This is a stupid way to approach the problem. In this passage, Munger gave the following two suggestions on how to gain insight into the essence of things:
(1) We should build a knowledge system based on thinking models.
(2) These mental models should be important principles from multiple important disciplines.
For these models, Munger believes that the first thing to master is mathematics. Obviously, you have to be able to deal with numbers and quantity problems, basic math problems. Which mental models are the most reliable? The obvious answer is that those mental models that come from the hard sciences and engineering are the most reliable mental models on the planet. I think the second reliable mental model comes from biology/physiology, since we are all genetically identical after all. Next, of course, is psychology, which is even more complex. But if you want to have any universal wisdom, psychology is too important. The reason is that human sensory organs sometimes short-circuit, which led to Munger's concept of misjudgment psychology.
What we need is to form a framework composed of various mental models in our minds. Then hang our actual experience and indirect experience (experience gained through reading and other means) on this powerful mental model frame. Using this method allows you to integrate various knowledge and deepen your understanding of reality. We should learn and master the core knowledge of each discipline, understand the connections between them, and integrate the knowledge of each discipline, instead of becoming the proverbial hammer man.
Each discipline has many models and tools for understanding the world. The multiple thinking model is to observe affairs and analyze problems by combining knowledge from multiple disciplines and different dimensions, and often can draw more accurate conclusions. Multiple thinking is a set of tools for solving problems. "Mr. Munger summed up those methods that have continued to be effective. This is the thinking model for thinking about this kind of problem." Munger's seemingly simple answer points directly to the key to learning thinking models - you must have a deep understanding of the situation of a model. Next, what problem is it effective in solving? For Charlie Munger, all strategies that can consistently and effectively solve problems can be called mental models.
"Think Well"
The thinking model was first proposed by Charlie Munger. However, Munger did not elaborate on the specific definition of the so-called 100 thinking models. The 100 thinking models circulating on the Internet were only proposed by others and have not been recognized by Munger. In this regard, Cheng Jia believes that thinking models are the "thinking templates" that each of us uses when making decisions and thinking about problems, even if you are not aware of this template yourself.
Cheng Jia, the author of "Thinking Well" who has delved deeply into Munger's thoughts, believes that a more comprehensive way of thinking often comes from covering more subjects, which is what Charlie Munger said about mastering "important Important Principles of the Discipline”. Among the many subjects, there are four subjects that we should master.
1) Basic disciplines for understanding the material world, such as physics, mathematics, chemistry, etc.;
?2) Disciplines for understanding the laws of group systems, such as biology, economics, and society Science, etc.;
?3) Disciplines that understand the laws of complex systems, such as complexity science, artificial intelligence, philosophy, etc.;
?4) Humanities disciplines that understand the spiritual world, such as psychology Science, aesthetics, religion, history, etc.
Regarding how to build multiple thinking models, Cheng Jia put forward the following views:
1. Understand the basic common sense and models of major disciplines. First of all, you must have a relatively in-depth understanding of your professional field and core business, and then proceed to in-depth study of other general disciplines and related fields.
2. Association and induction: When you encounter things in life, you should associate as much common sense and models from different disciplines as possible. When you encounter something, try to think more about it. What would happen if you think about it from another perspective? Is there any other way to solve this problem? What disciplines and fields are involved in this task, and how can they be effectively connected to complete this task?
3. Build your own thinking system. Connect these different disciplines to form an efficient system for looking at problems and doing things. You don’t need to be perfect at the beginning. The key is to continuously review, upgrade the system, connect knowledge from various disciplines, analyze problems, and solve problems.
4. Keep learning and constantly improve your thinking framework. Every time you work on a project, you can apply the previous framework model, which reduces decision-making time and improves thinking efficiency. What you need to do is: constantly solidify these summarized and organized experiences in your brain by building multiple models. And each subsequent review will further improve the entire thinking model.
Cheng Jia further proposed practical methods for mastering thinking models: 1. Through reading, there are three reading methods that are very suitable for accumulating thinking models, namely the dictionary method, the keyword method, and the method of knowing people and the world and thinking maps. . 2. Accumulate thinking models through work and the five-star note-taking method. The key to rapid progress at work: find other people's advantageous strategies and transform tacit knowledge into explicit thinking models. 3. Internalized thinking model: super first-class learning method.
On this basis, Cheng Jia elaborated on the idea of ??comprehensively using multiple thinking models to solve complex problems. He believed that the problems we encounter can generally be divided into three categories: simple problems, locally complex problems and global complexity. question. The corresponding thinking methods are linear reasoning, structured thinking, and systematic thinking. The key to systems thinking is to study the corresponding characteristics of system purposes, elements and relationships at different levels and at different time and space scales, and then find solutions to problems. Three key ideas for solving complex problems: dimensionality reduction attack, transformation of scale and focus on key.
Cheng Jia brings thinking models into life and opens up a skylight for thinking.
"Model Thinking"
Munger said: "To be a wise person, you must have multiple models."
Whether a person is smart is not determined by IQ, but by the diversity of thinking models. ——Scott Page
Page, the "head" of the University of Michigan Complexity Research Center, encourages people to use multi-model thinking to think intelligently like Munger. This book proposes more advanced model thinking.
Why should we establish an interdisciplinary knowledge system of multiple thinking models? Mental models can only improve the efficiency of problem solving, but they cannot reduce the number of problems. The problem cannot be solved completely, so we need to build an interdisciplinary knowledge system.
Models can make us smarter. Page believes that without models, people are subject to a variety of cognitive biases: We overweight recent events, assign probabilities based on "reasonableness," and ignore basic ratios.
Without models, our ability to process data is severely limited. With models, we can clarify relevant assumptions and think more logically. We can also use big data to fit, calibrate, and test causality and correlation. In short, with models, our thinking will be more effective.
All models have three unique characteristics. First, they all need to be simplified, stripped of unnecessary details, abstracted away from certain real-world factors, or re-created from scratch. Second, they are all formal and require precise definitions. The third and most common characteristic is that all models are wrong, as statistics guru George Box pointed out. All models are no exception. Even the laws and laws proposed by Newton only hold true under specific conditions. By considering multiple models simultaneously, we can achieve the intersection of multiple possible scenarios, thus overcoming the narrowness of a single model due to its strictness.
Wisdom requires multi-model thinking. Wisdom involves choosing the right knowledge or models. To become a multi-model thinker, we must learn to master multiple models from which we can gain practical knowledge. We need to understand the formal description of the models and know how to apply them.
Page proposed three methods of building models: The first method of building models is the embodiment approach. Models built in this way include important parts, while unnecessary dimensions and attributes are either stripped out or considered together. The second method of building models is the analogy approach, which allows for analogies and abstractions from reality. The third way to build models is the alternative reality approach, which is to intentionally not represent or portray reality.
7 major uses of models
Reasoning: Identify conditions and infer logical meanings. Explanation: Providing a (testable) explanation for an empirical phenomenon. Design: Selecting the characteristics of institutions, policies, and rules. Communication: Linking knowledge to understanding. Action: Guide policy choices and strategic actions. Forecasting: Numerical and categorical predictions of future and unknown phenomena. Exploration: Analyze and explore possibilities and hypotheses.
Page believes that if we can build various accurate models, we can make accurate predictions and estimates and choose the right actions. These theorems verify the reliability of multi-model thinking logic. However, constructing many models to satisfy these assumptions is not what these theorems can or should do. Successful one-to-many thinking relies on creatively adapting assumptions and building new analogies, applying models developed for specific purposes to new domains. Therefore, becoming a multimodal thinker requires not only mathematical ability but also creativity.
Due to the challenges of diversity, social influence, cognitive errors, purpose and adaptability, our model will inevitably have problems of one kind or another, which is why we need to adopt Reasons for the multi-model approach. Human beings are diverse, susceptible to social influence, error-prone, purposeful, adaptable and subjective, and they will certainly make mistakes. Our goal is to build many models that, as a whole, will be useful. Because every model has flaws, different models can provide people with different perspectives, and it is impossible to understand this complex world without using models at all.
Page believes in using not just one model, but multiple models in a given situation. To face the complex challenges of reality and create a more inclusive world, what you need is not a single model, but a grid of multiple models.
The 24 models in the book are a thinking toolbox for dealing with a complex world. Models will help us all move from mastering information to possessing wisdom, formalizing our thinking, and making decisions more accurately. Some of them require some statistical knowledge and can be a bit brain-burning to read, but as Page said at the end, this book reveals the fun of modeling. Through this kind of logical efforts, improving yourself and making yourself smarter is the right way.
The learning and application of mental models can help us explain, solve and predict problems better, faster and more thoroughly. Excellent people can accommodate more diverse and complex knowledge in their minds and can combine and use this knowledge cross-wise.