On May 26, the main data of Sichuan Province’s seventh national census was released. Data show that in 2020, Chengdu's permanent population exceeded 20 million for the first time, reaching 20.9376 million, firmly ranking fourth in the country, and the population gap with third-place Beijing narrowed to less than 1 million.
From an incremental perspective, Chengdu’s performance is also very good. Compared with the sixth national census in 2010, Chengdu's permanent population increased by 5.8189 million, ranking second only to Shenzhen and Guangzhou among major cities in the country, and leading the new first-tier cities.
At the same time, Sichuan’s population is further gathering in the provincial capital Chengdu. The proportion of Chengdu's total population in the province increased from 18.80% in 2010 to 25.02%, an increase of 6.22 percentage points.
What is the charm of Chengdu that can become the third runner-up in urban population growth in the past ten years?
The industry has developed rapidly, and the resident population exceeded 10 million 10 years ago
Population changes are closely related to economic development. In 2010, Chengdu's GDP had not yet exceeded one trillion yuan, reaching 555.13 billion yuan, ranking 13th among major cities in the country. Ten years later, Chengdu's GDP increased by more than 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.77 trillion yuan, ranking 7th in the country.
As an important industrial town in southwest China, Chengdu has a developed electronic information industry, attracting more than 60 Fortune 500 and internationally renowned companies such as Intel, IBM, Dell, and Huawei to settle in Chengdu. In 2020, the scale of Chengdu's electronic information industry reached 1,006.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, becoming Chengdu's first industry with an output value exceeding one trillion yuan.
In addition to the electronic information industry, Chengdu’s artificial intelligence industry has developed rapidly in recent years. According to data from the Chengdu Municipal Economic and Information Bureau, there will be more than 550 artificial intelligence industry enterprises in 2020, with an industry scale of 20 billion yuan, an increase of 83% and 67% respectively compared with 2019. By 2022, the industry scale will exceed 50 billion yuan, driving the The scale of related industries exceeded 500 billion yuan.
The rapid development of related industries has provided more employment opportunities and absorbed the floating population. The "Chengdu Talent Development Guidelines (2021)" released in late April this year identified a list of 684 types of talent currently in short supply for Chengdu's industrial development. Among them, the number of urgently needed talent categories in "new infrastructure" fields such as 5G, big data, artificial intelligence, and rail transit continues to grow; the demand for highly knowledgeable and skilled talent in fields such as industrial robots, intelligent service robots, and green smart cars has increased by 110% year-on-year.
The rapid development of Chengdu’s economy is related to Sichuan Province’s proposal in 2018 to build a new pattern of “one trunk, multiple branches, and five districts synergy”, which requires strengthening the “backbone” of Chengdu, giving full play to its leading and radiating role, and solving The problem of unbalanced development in Sichuan. Specifically, Chengdu strives to form two trillion-dollar industrial clusters and two RMB 500 billion industrial clusters through 3-5 years of efforts; it will accelerate the construction of important national science and technology centers and cultural and creative centers.
In addition, reporters found that as early as 2010, Chengdu’s permanent population exceeded 10 million, reaching 14.0476 million, ranking fourth in the country after Chongqing, Shanghai and Beijing (note: Due to the adjustment of the administrative divisions of Chengdu City and Ziyang City in 2016, the permanent population of Chengdu City in 2010 was revised according to the adjusted administrative divisions, but the revised data has not been released yet. 14.0476 million is the data before the revision). It can be said that the large population base has contributed to Chengdu’s population expansion in recent years.
“It’s not surprising that Chengdu’s population is increasing rapidly.” Yang Chenggang, vice president of the Sichuan Provincial Demographic Society and director of the Population Research Institute of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, told reporters that Chengdu’s economy has developed rapidly in recent years, and business The environment continues to improve, infrastructure develops rapidly, and public service levels continue to improve, giving Chengdu more job opportunities, a better business environment, and conditions for entrepreneurship.
House prices rank 21st, and "there is rarely a feeling of breathless tension"
In recent years, major cities have competed for talents, and Chengdu has also been launching new talent policies one after another. In 2017, Chengdu launched the “12 New Talent Policies” and became the first in the country to implement the “settlement first and then employment” system. Since then, Chengdu has launched supporting systems such as the "Rongcheng Talent Green Card" and "Talent Resettlement Project", established an exclusive festival "Rongpiao Talent Day" to respect talents, and created a series of "Rongpiao" cultural and creative products to attract talents.
In addition to the new talent policy, livable urban life is also a trump card of Chengdu. In Chengdu's recently announced "14th Five-Year Plan" plan recommendations, it was proposed for the first time to implement the "Ten Major Projects for a Happy and Better Life".
Coziness and leisure are many people’s impression of Chengdu. Making a pot of tea and playing mahjong under the bridge has become one of the classic images of Chengdu people. In recent years, with the help of short videos, Chengdu has broken out of the entertainment industry and become an Internet celebrity city. Prior to this, in 2003, after director Zhang Yimou shot a city promotional video for Chengdu, "a city you don't want to leave once you come here" is still a golden saying to describe Chengdu's leisurely atmosphere. In 2016, a ballad "Chengdu" by singer Zhao Lei became popular all over the country, igniting many people's enthusiasm to "walk the streets of Chengdu". "Yulin Road" and "Tavern" have also become check-in points for foreign tourists.
In addition, compared with the high housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the housing prices in Chengdu are not high.
Data from the National Housing Price Quotation Network shows that as of April 2021, the average unit price of second-hand houses in Chengdu is 19,187 yuan/square meter, ranking 21st among major cities in the country, while the average price of second-hand houses in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen exceeds 40,000 yuan. Yuan.
From the perspective of house price to income ratio, according to the "2020 House Price to Income Ratio Research Report in 50 Cities across the Country" released by E-House Research Institute, the house price to income ratios of Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou are 39.8, 26.2 and 23.8 respectively. , 16.7, which makes it difficult to buy a house. Chengdu’s house price-to-income ratio is 10.1, which is on the low side.
More employment opportunities, relaxed settlement policies, and livable living environment are all attractive to newly graduated college students. Data show that in 2017, college students from other provinces employed in Chengdu accounted for 25.8%, and by 2019, this proportion increased to 35%. The "Sichuan Province 2020 Annual Report on the Employment Quality of College Graduates" shows that employment in the province is the first choice for graduates, with a proportion as high as 75.10%.
Wang Ting is a college student from other provinces employed in Chengdu. As a Guangxi native, she chose to stay and work in a state-owned enterprise in Chengdu after graduating from university in 2020. "I have a slow personality. I work in Chengdu, and the pace is not fast. I rarely feel breathless and nervous, and there are quite a lot of snacks here." Wang Ting told reporters.
“People vote with their feet on the urban environment and attractiveness. The better a city’s environment and the higher the level of public services, the more people it can absorb.” Vice President of the China Association of Regional Economics Chairman and Secretary-General Chen Yao told reporters.
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, previously believed in an interview with reporters that in the process of stimulating market vitality and promoting industrial modernization, major cities must also create more workable and livable cities. The environment, by building a nest to attract talents, attracts talents, cultivates talents, and retains talents, forming a virtuous cycle in which economic development and talent cultivation mutually support each other.
The expansion of the administrative territory, the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is developing
The rapid growth of Chengdu’s population is partly due to the expansion of the administrative territory. In May 2016, in order to further accelerate the construction of Chengdu Tianfu International Airport, the State Council approved the transfer of the county-level Jianyang City under the jurisdiction of Ziyang City to Chengdu City. Jianyang is the most populous county (city, district) in Sichuan Province, with a population of 1.4991 million at the end of 2016. After the zoning adjustment, the population of Chengdu increased by more than one million.
In January 2020, the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle was elevated to a national strategy. In the context of building the "fourth pole" of China's economy, Chengdu's urban status continues to improve. Yang Chenggang told reporters that judging from trend development, the population will continue to gather in Chengdu in the future.
However, Yang Chenggang emphasized that since Chengdu’s population has exceeded 20 million, the next step should be to appropriately slow down the pace of population expansion and focus more on improving the quality of urban development. For example, improving public services, creating a better living environment, business environment, etc.
In fact, Chengdu’s population cannot expand indefinitely in the future. According to the "Chengdu Urban Master Plan (2016-2035)", water resources carrying capacity is the shortcoming of Chengdu's resource and environmental carrying capacity. In accordance with the requirement of "water determines people", it is determined that the city's permanent population size will be controlled at 23 million in 2035 Within 100,000 people, the urban population in the central urban area will be controlled at 13.6 million.
It is worth mentioning that Chengdu is now the well-deserved "big brother" of Sichuan Province in terms of economic aggregate and population size. In 2020, Chengdu's GDP accounted for 36.46% of the province's total, and its population accounted for 25.02% of the province's total, ranking first. In other words, Chengdu relies on 1/4 of the province’s population to contribute 1/3 of the province’s GDP.
“The distribution gap of the permanent population in Sichuan Province is relatively obvious.” Fan Yi, Party Secretary and Director of the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference on May 26 that there is no permanent population in Sichuan Province of more than 10 million. Among cities with a population of 20 million, Nanchong City, which ranks second, has a permanent population of 5.608 million, and most cities (states) have a permanent population between 1 million and 5 million.
Chen Yao, vice president and secretary-general of the China Association of Regional Economics, believes that the situation of one city dominating the market should be avoided. "The bigger the city, the better. If the population is overly concentrated, it may face problems such as traffic congestion, overwhelmed infrastructure, environmental pollution, and intensified social conflicts. To avoid big city diseases, pay attention to the reasonable distribution of the urban population, such as the population in the central city and the The population in the suburbs must be distributed reasonably to achieve a balance between employment and housing,” Chen Yao said.
Yang Chenggang believes that Chengdu’s high primacy is related to Chengdu’s many employment opportunities, good business environment, livable life and other factors. “This kind of imbalance in economic development at a specific stage is normal. , in line with objective laws."
However, Yang Chenggang also believes that in the long run, the layout of productivity and population distribution should be as balanced as possible. “Now that transportation conditions have improved and coupled with the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, Chengdu’s radiation driving ability has been enhanced, which will bring more positive driving effects to surrounding areas instead of inhibiting them.
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