1. The overall market has cooled significantly, and real estate has entered a new era
The so-called cooling means that, first, it is compared with 2016, and second, the overall transaction volume and growth rate of the market will drop significantly. In 2016, new home sales exceeded 10 trillion for the first time in history, which may be a benchmark that has been difficult to surpass for many years. Third, in some cities where housing prices skyrocketed in 2016 but lacked conceptual support, there is a high possibility that housing prices will fall back. The probability of housing prices rising sharply in 2017 is zero, and the probability of housing prices plummeting is also zero. It must be emphasized that when thinking about China's real estate, we must realize that the environment and factor endowments of real estate development have undergone tremendous changes: the high economic growth cycle has ended, the high monetary growth cycle has ended, and the high international capital growth cycle has ended. This determines that the future trend of China's real estate market will be very different from that of the past 18 years. We need to say a real goodbye to the real estate market of the past 18 years.
But we must also remember that there are still three cycles that have not ended: China’s urbanization cycle has not ended, the era of the combination of China’s financial capital and land capital has not ended, and the economy’s dependence on real estate has not ended. These are three important supports that prevent China's real estate from falling off a cliff, and are also the fundamental reason why China has not entered the so-called post-real estate era.
The status of real estate as a pillar industry will never change! That's right, forever. Look at the United States, which has been urbanized for more than 70 years, but real estate is still the most important industry in the United States. However, the path of real estate and future competition models are undergoing disruptive changes. We will see the collapse of many conservative real estate companies. At least 80% of real estate companies will disappear, and there will be fewer and fewer companies specializing in real estate.
2. The policy only looks strict, but the policy is not the key to the trend of housing prices
The trend of housing prices in 2017 does not depend on the regulatory cycle that started on “9.30” in 2016, but on the It is subject to the development cycle of real estate itself, and the policy is only to proactively uncover hidden risks and actively cool down the situation. Even if no regulatory measures are introduced, the market will automatically cool down.
It needs to be pointed out that the sentence "Houses are for living in, not for speculation" does not reveal too many harsh measures. Policies to suppress real estate speculation have always existed, and real estate speculation is not An important reason for the soaring housing prices in 2016 is that the fundamental reason is the extremely loose real estate policy under the pressure of stabilizing growth and the reconciliation with the half-made monetary policy, which greatly promotes the expectations of rising prices. Real estate speculation is the result, not the cause! Suppressing real estate speculation will only change short-term expectations, not long-term expectations.
To understand the real estate policy, we must understand it from the perspective of the general tone of the macro policy in 2017. The macro policy in 2017 will raise both "stability" and "risk" to unprecedented heights. If there is progress while maintaining stability, then This means that real estate policies will never severely crack down on real estate. In 2017, China did not have the capital to suppress real estate. The policy emphasizes the need to "prevent big ups and downs." From the perspective of the real estate cycle, the focus is on "big downs" rather than "big ups", because there is no basis for real estate in 2017 to rise sharply.
Some cities have made it clear that housing prices in 2017 will not rise month-on-month. The "month-on-month not rising" may become an adjustment target that many cities will follow. The month-on-month not rising is intended to change short-term investment expectations and pave the way for the long-term future. Effective mechanisms gain time. The final performance of housing prices in 2017 is still determined by the real estate cycle.
3. The land market has cooled greatly, and the fate of many "land kings" in 2016 is uncertain
The national land transfer revenue in 2016 should not exceed 3.5 trillion, which is lower than the peak in 2014 However, in 2016, "land kings" appeared frequently in hot cities. Not only were there a large number of "land kings" across the country, more than 300, but the floor price increased astonishingly compared to surrounding housing prices. Taking into account the cooling of the overall real estate market in 2017 and the pressure of falling house price growth, high-priced "land kings" will put great pressure on some real estate companies that acquire land with high leverage. Judging from the fate of the "land kings" in past real estate regulation cycles, the "land kings" end up making money in the minority, most of them lose money and make a living, and there are also many who die without a burial place. If this round of real estate adjustment cycle lasts more than two years, the fate of many “land kings” produced in 2016 will be uncertain.
Fourth, real estate tax will not be introduced, and large-scale pilot projects are also a small possibility
When I analyze the trend of housing prices in China, I never mention real estate tax. The reason is very simple, that is, I think The probability of its introduction in the short term is zero. Real estate tax is an extremely complex reform matter involving many issues, which are fully explained in previous articles.
As for property tax legislation, in the long run, tax reform in China’s real estate field is necessary. Through the overall design, how to adjust the current tax system and incorporate it into a unified property tax? The general direction is correct. However, the issues that are the focus of public attention in property tax legislation must be addressed. For example, the purpose of expropriation, the relationship with land transfer fees, how to resolve the 70-year land property rights, etc. If these problems are not solved, the property tax cannot be introduced.
At the same time, we must tell everyone that whether housing prices will rise or not is mainly due to expectations, not taxes. Real estate tax cannot restrain the rise of housing prices, which has been proved by the practice of many countries. For example, both Shanghai and Chongqing have implemented property taxes on a trial basis. It is difficult to explain why housing prices in Shanghai have soared while those in Chongqing have been so stable.
The National Development and Reform Commission has announced to the outside world to encourage local governments to innovate on issues such as real estate tax. I think there are not many local governments who are willing to innovate. You won’t lose your watermelon to pick up sesame seeds.
Fifth, there will be no significant progress in the construction of long-term mechanisms
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that finance, land, taxation, investment, legislation and other means should be comprehensively used to speed up research Establish basic systems and long-term mechanisms that are in line with national conditions and adapt to market laws, so as to curb real estate bubbles and prevent ups and downs.
Long-term mechanisms are of course the key to the stable development of real estate and its return to normalcy, but the construction of long-term mechanisms is by no means accomplished overnight. To truly establish a long-term mechanism for China's real estate, it is necessary to overthrow many past real estate policies and define the responsibility boundaries of the government and the market on the basis of clarifying the basic concepts of real estate. At the same time, it is built around the starting point of housing as a basic people's livelihood needs. New institutional systems such as credit, taxation, land, and finance.
Even the existing housing management agencies need to be restructured. This requires at least one government term. It is expected that there will be no substantial progress in the launch of the long-term mechanism in 2017, but after the unified registration of real estate is completed, the number of houses will be basically clear, and the legislation of real estate tax will be accelerated.
6. Should I buy a house or sell a house?
This is a very risky question, but it must be answered.
First of all, as far as the small cycle of real estate is concerned, there is a high probability of adjustment in 2017. Real estate is definitely not an important choice for investment in 2017. We should pay attention to the two risks of market and policy.
Secondly, in June 2017, you can pay attention to market and policy adjustments, and predict and revise the trend in the second half of the year again based on market and policy adjustments. If you invest in real estate in the first half of the year, the risk is very high. But if it is about children enrolling in school, there is no way. There is no need to consider investment returns or risks, because delaying children is the biggest risk.
Third, I still call on high-net-worth individuals to reduce their holdings of domestic real estate. The fundamental reason is that I am worried that exchange rates and capital outflows will lead to an adjustment and revaluation of China’s asset prices. This may be the first time in 2017 The biggest real estate risk of the year. But this is only for high-net-worth individuals with at least three houses.
Fourth, if there is no major reversal in the fundamentals of China's economy and real estate, there are some safe cities where you can consider buying a house after June. You can continue to pay attention to the Guangzhou, Xi'an, Chongqing, Kunming, Nanning I mentioned before, as well as Dalian and Ningbo, which did not see a large increase in housing prices in 2016.
Finally, it needs to be pointed out that for a country with a large population, a large currency, and an emerging country with ongoing urbanization like China, high-quality urban resources have been scarce in this country for quite some time. Choosing high-quality cities , residence and life are an important part of China's economic transformation and upgrading. In this regard, the real estate cycle is not over yet, only the recklessness of youth and the jungle era have ended.