Alternative bubble war: the truth of Dubai crisis, we really don't understand Dubai crisis. What is the real reason behind the collapse of Dubai model? China businessmen lost to Dubai, who will be the next Dubai? Most countries/regions in Asia have been hit by the bubble war in western countries led by the United States. But not only us, but also Dubai. In fact, the thinking of European and American countries attacking Dubai is different from that of other Asian countries/regions. Since we are talking about other countries/regions, let's talk about Dubai and see how we in the Middle East are in the same boat. We can also learn about another type of bubble war through the case of Dubai. First, excessive panic: What happened in Dubai at the end of 2009, the eyes of the whole world focused on Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Dubai's debt crisis looks serious, and the international market has been panicking for some time. In fact, the international market has overreacted to this matter. Before, we always thought that the world economy was developing steadily. Suddenly there was a financial crisis, and now there is a Dubai crisis. Everyone is very scared and nervous. In fact, what we should really worry about is not the Dubai crisis, but what the next crisis will be. The background shows that the world is slowly waking up from the nightmare of the financial crisis, but a piece of news from the Persian Gulf makes the world tremble again. Dubai World Company, once a wealthy enterprise, has recently defaulted on its debts on a large scale and will postpone the repayment of nearly $60 billion in debt. As soon as the "Dubai Crisis" was exposed, it was like a thunder resounding through the international financial market, which triggered a series of plunge in the global stock market within 24 hours. According to media analysis, once Dubai World is unable to repay its debts, it will become the biggest sovereign fund default event in the world since 200 1 Argentina defaulted. This debt crisis is likely to have an impact on the fragile global recovery and trigger a new round of financial turmoil. Some media have over-interpreted this matter and combined it with 200 1 Argentine sovereign default, including 1999 Russian national debt default. Usually the reason for over-interpretation is that I don't understand it. Recently, I have read a lot of media reports, which are basically fabricated and I don't understand them. Then I compared the East and the West and found some news hotspots. I even said, oh, no, the financial crisis is about to break out again. What is the so-called second financial tsunami? The amount of debt restructuring in Dubai has gradually decreased. We heard that the debt was $59 billion before, and later said that it was only $26 billion, so we should not restructure it. The real problem is $3.5 billion, which is $3.5 billion that has been delayed for six months. What is $3.5 billion? Think about it, if only $3.5 billion needs to be repaid for six months, it is a very small debt. What is the reason why this $3.5 billion caused such an uproar? This in itself is unreasonable.

Look at the global stock market. You're scared. "Black Thursday" and "Black Friday" plunged for two consecutive days. The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and when I came back, I found it was also falling. Even the China stock market fell below 3 100. One reason for people's panic is fear of contagion, especially for sovereign funds. Dubai is like this. If it doesn't pay back, will other sovereign funds do so in the future? Everyone is worried that this matter will spread to emerging economies. Once the capital chain breaks, it will be in trouble. Some people compare Dubai World with Lehman Brothers, which collapsed due to the financial tsunami. But in fact, if you study the research materials carefully, you will find that Lehman Brothers has much more resources and funds than Dubai World. At that time, subprime mortgage was a long debt chain, while Dubai's debt chain was actually very short, which was a payment crisis. It can't be compared with Lehman Brothers, nor is it a heavyweight company. Subprime loan is a "melamine" problem, the whole subprime loan is not repaid, and then the whole American financial system is poisoned by "melamine", which is terrible. What about Dubai? You returned it. No big deal. As long as it is returned, the crisis will be solved. If readers are interested in the financial tsunami, please refer to two books, Lang Xianping said: No one can escape the financial crisis and Lang Xianping said: Beyond the Limit of Financial War. Second, behind the financial dream: Why is the Dubai model shattered? Let me explain Dubai first. Many people haven't figured it out yet. Dubai is one of the seven Emirates in the United Arab Emirates. 197 1 These seven Emirates (including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Fujairah, Umm al-Qaiwan, Cape Al-Khaimah 1972) suddenly said, let's organize a country and call it the United Arab Emirates. Dubai is the second largest and Abu Dhabi is the first. So you should know that Dubai is just a province of the United Arab Emirates, and the largest province is Abu Dhabi. Then because it is the largest, it will be the first, and the second will be the second largest, which is Dubai. The other five Emirates are all small. What about these seven buddies? Dubai used to be lucky to have a little oil and then a good entrepot, so it used to be beautiful. Recently, however, it was suddenly discovered that the boss was still the boss. Oil was discovered in Abu Dhabi, and it was a super-large oil field, so it covered the side of the second child. Let's look back at Dubai World, a storm center with no money. Take the data of 2008 as an example, the total income is only $3 billion, and the net profit is only $200 million, which is not enough to pay interest. But this enterprise is a state-owned enterprise. Therefore, many people think that state-owned enterprises have asset problems and the government will support them. But this time, Dubai said I couldn't hold on. Dubai does not support it, but Abu Dhabi (Abu Dhabi is the capital of the United Arab Emirates and represents the country) will support it. Because Dubai is only a province, how can the province make decisions for the country? So the state should support it and Abu Dhabi should pay for it.

Before, we said that Dubai World is a "enterprise with the sun never setting", with assets all over the world 100 countries and cities, and buying ports everywhere is as crazy as Japan. In particular, investment finance has purchased the financial assets of many enterprises and the equity of many banks. MGM, it also has shares, more than 50% of the shares. So in fact, the purpose of Dubai is not to do industry, but to do financial services. Purification workshop. In 1950s, oil fields were discovered in Dubai, because Dubai's resources were not as much as expected. It is said that 20 10 will be mined, and then consciously transform into other industries. But we can see that any financial center in history-Amsterdam, Frankfurt and London-is supported by the real economy, and the manufacturing industry has gradually extended from the financial system. But Dubai has no real economic support, and something really happened this time. Very interesting is "9? 1 1 ",what should I do because the threshold for traveling to the United States was very large at that time? Just like Dubai is in the middle zone, it has become a leisure area for many Middle Eastern tourists. So I took this opportunity to build real estate and tourist attractions. Dubai is the first Arab country to allow foreigners to invest in real estate, and the investment environment is very relaxed. Foreigners can not only invest in real estate, but also in any industry, tax-free, and 100% can be repatriated to their home countries. This is very, very generous. Dubai chief's name is Sheikh? Muhammad? He wrote a book called My Vision to promote his Dubai model. He said that Dubai pursues innovation and wants to build a world economic center, and suggested that other Arab countries learn from the Dubai model. You see, this sentence is familiar, and we often say it ourselves. Now the media has given a definition to the Dubai model, which means borrowing heavily, building large-scale projects and developing the economy. This is the standard Dubai model. What do you think it did with money? Sailing Hotel, the most luxurious seven-star hotel in the world, used 26 tons of gold. Muhammad, who created the myth of the desert, has a famous saying that the antelope must run faster than the lion, or it will be eaten. The lion must run faster than the antelope, or it will starve to death. So he said, whether it is an antelope or a lion, it must run faster than others. So you see Dubai has been running very fast, building many buildings, demanding the fastest development speed, building the tallest building in the world, and the largest indoor artificial ski resort, which is extremely luxurious. The whole place is a luxury consumption place for the rich in the Middle East.

Actually, I want to go to Dubai, but I can't afford it. You see, when Atlantis Hotel opened in 2009, many stars were invited. At that time, fireworks alone amounted to $6.5438+million, which was several times higher than that of the Beijing Olympic Games. It's really luxurious I have a question. Arab countries are very pragmatic. Why did Dubai engage in so many "performance projects"? Just like we did in China. Tell you, there is an essential reason for all this, and you will find it very interesting. When did it all start? In 2006. So what year is 2006? That is, the second-in-command of the United Arab Emirates succeeded in that year. Who is he? He is Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai. He is the second in command, and the first place is the Sheikh of Abu Dhabi, whose name is Harriet. The number one man succeeded to the throne in 2004. Salary increase for civil servants in 2005 100%. Then everyone was very happy, very happy and supported him. Then in 2006, the second-in-command guy came to power, so what? When a new official takes office, he will show his achievements. Then he built many buildings, highways and buildings, which is what we usually call performance projects. This shit is not only for us, but also for Dubai. It's really interesting. All major construction projects in Dubai were basically carried out after this guy took office, which probably promoted 300 billion US dollars of construction projects. But the two brothers don't get along very well. Finally, think. If the boss hadn't reported the second child, Dubai might not have come out. Why? 3.5 billion dollars is not a problem, you can borrow it again. As long as we borrow another $3.5 billion, we can last another six months. The problem is that once exposed to you, no one will lend you money. This is the biggest problem. Well, you won't have a problem, so you won't have a problem if I expose it to you? Probably to pursue the same girlfriend, what is the contradiction between them. Of course I don't know the details, but the boss played with his penis, which is true. After this incident was exposed, Abu Dhabi once stated that it would not package all the debts of Dubai, saying that it would analyze them one by one and then help them selectively, depending on how your brother performed. ? Third, the conspiracy of western capital: Who is the real boss of Dubai? Then we saw European and American banks borrowing money from Dubai. Aren't European and American banks all smart? As cunning as a fox. Why do they invest in Dubai World? As mentioned above, the annual income of Dubai World is only $3 billion, and the net profit is only $200 million. If you lend it $59 billion, you won't pay it back as long as the interest increases by 0.3 percentage point, right? Then you dare to borrow it? Since it dares to borrow, it is necessary to ensure that it can be taken back after something happens, otherwise it will not be borrowed. But there is nothing in Dubai. Why did you bring it back? This is the problem. It is only a province, and its eldest brother is Abu Dhabi, so it must bear this burden. What about the end? You'd better borrow more. 59 billion dollars is not enough. You'd better borrow 200 billion dollars. Finally, they signed the contract and I lent you the money. No problem. If you can't afford it, wouldn't it be nice to use the oil field as collateral? Isn't that cheap access to the oil field? You have to do this. So the meaning of drunkenness is not in Dubai, but in Abu Dhabi.

So this is actually a conspiracy. There are two goals for European and American banks to lend heavily to Dubai. One target is the super-large oil fields in Abu Dhabi, and the other is Islamic bonds. Of this $59 billion, about $9 billion is Islamic bonds, and $6 billion is Islamic bonds in debt restructuring of $26 billion. What does this mean? This means that European and American banks can attack Islamic bonds through Dubai, thus affecting the entire Islamic financial system. So this is killing two birds with one stone. Something's wrong with you, isn't it? The credibility of bonds is damaged. At the same time, mortgage your oil field once you can't pay back the money. If you mortgage an oil field, then Wall Street will lower the oil price back to $30 a barrel. Doesn't America often do such things? So I got the oil field cheaply. This is definitely a good thing for them. This is a conspiracy of western imperialism. It's like the story of 150 years ago was repeated in Dubai, and Dubai didn't notice the western conspiracy at all. Dubai has no credit rating, and some of them are rubbish. The real rating is Abu Dhabi, AA2, and two A's. Dubai has never been rated. According to our data, Dubai's risk is two to three times higher than its brother's and worse than Iceland's credit before bankruptcy. So it's strange why major European banks, including HSBC, Barclays Bank and BNP Paribas, which we are familiar with, give it a lot of loans. Look at the boss's face, look at the oil in Abu Dhabi and use that as collateral. That's why they dare to play like this. Finally, you find these seven-star hotels, various islands and so on. In fact, it is obvious that banks in Europe and the United States put Mohammed in Dubai. Actually, it's all mine. If you don't behave well, I will take it all back for you. If it fails, what about your brother's oil field as collateral? So you see the smartest banks in Europe and America, and finally you find that the real players are not Dubai, but banks in Europe and America. People just use your Dubai name and put things in your place for you to play with. And you can't afford to play. Your net profit of 3 billion dollars is only 200 million dollars. How can you pay me back? It doesn't matter. If you can't pay it back, let your brother Abu Dhabi pay it back. He is the real boss of Dubai. Banks in Europe and America all know that you are brothers. If something really happens, you still have to help. It is impossible to bankrupt Dubai as a whole in the end. A province can't go bankrupt, and a country can't go bankrupt. And I'll tell you again, if the rating of your country by the world rating agencies is A, all your industries and all your provinces must be below A, and the country's rating is the highest. So the national sovereign rating will bear everything, it's as simple as that. In fact, we also saw that Abu Dhabi also made the first capital injection of $654.38+0.5 billion.

Fourth, China merchants defeated the magic castle. Think about it. As long as it is profitable, we will definitely not take it. We should get the worst. So this time, you found that our comrades in Wenzhou suffered the most. Every time I talk about Wenzhou, Comrade Wenzhou is unhappy, saying that Professor Lang always criticizes Wenzhou. But I don't mean to criticize you. Chen Zhiyuan, president of Wenzhou Chamber of Commerce in Dubai, told the media that they lost about $2 billion this time. One tenth of Chinese businessmen in Dubai are Wenzhou businessmen, who have bought many houses. The transaction mode of building mortgage in Dubai is different from that in China. No guarantee, no mortgage. They can sell as long as they have drawings. The first payment 15%, the second payment can be sold everywhere, called parcel delivery. Finally, the drum stopped, and the person who finally got the flowers lost. Now the drums have stopped. Who do you think is the last one?