Simon, a famous economist, famously said: Management is decision-making. Real estate investment has the characteristics of high risk and high return, and the biggest factor affecting the project development cost is the decision of enterprise leaders. Improper decision-making or mistakes in decision-making bring incalculable losses to real estate enterprises. A wrong decision will bring huge losses to enterprises and even bankrupt them. However, due to the characteristics of real estate investment, it is inevitable that there will be big or small mistakes in real estate investment decisions. Therefore, for a real estate development project, we must first establish a scientific decision-making mechanism, and the most important basis for decision-making is the feasibility study of the real estate development project.
The failure of Shanghai World Trade Center is due to the lack of background conditions for office building development, and the silence of the office building of Guangzhou Automobile Expo Center is also due to the fact that it was built on a triangle surrounded by viaducts. These are all situations that we can avoid with the help of project feasibility study. The feasibility study of the project is to analyze and predict the prospect of the project from the aspects of market, technology and economy, make an overall comprehensive evaluation of the project, tell us whether we can do it and how to do it, help us understand the characteristics and positioning of the market and the project itself more thoroughly and clearly, understand various factors that may have an impact, avoid investment risks, and enhance our ability to grasp the project at the same time. Therefore, it is imperative to establish a scientific feasibility study system.
1. 1 Establish a scientific evaluation index system.
We should learn from the theories, research methods and evaluation index system of feasibility study in western developed countries, especially internationally famous consulting companies, and comprehensively consider various factors such as economic benefits, social benefits and environmental benefits to establish a set of evaluation index system suitable for the characteristics of China's real estate market. After preliminary study, the evaluation index system of feasibility study of real estate development can include planning evaluation, design scheme evaluation, market positioning evaluation, economic evaluation and other indicators.
Planning evaluation indicators mainly consider the usable land area, building density, plot ratio, green rate, parking space, municipal facilities, public facilities, transportation and other factors.
The evaluation index of the design scheme takes into account the factors such as cost performance, industrialization, economy, lighting, ventilation, environmental protection, style, taste, coordination with the surrounding environment, and use function.
Market positioning evaluation indicators are based on the real estate market survey data and market forecast results, and establish evaluation indicators such as rental price, rental rate, rental object and property management fee.
Economic evaluation indicators consider financial evaluation and comprehensive evaluation. According to the current fiscal and taxation system and price system, financial evaluation calculates the financial revenue and expenditure of real estate projects, analyzes the financial profitability, liquidity and fund balance of the projects, and judges the financial feasibility and risk prediction of the projects. Make a comprehensive evaluation from the perspective of regional socio-economic development, analyze and calculate the benefits and costs of real estate projects to regional socio-economy, investigate the net contribution of the projects to social economy, and judge the economic rationality of the projects.
The factors contained in each of the above evaluation indexes have a direct or indirect impact on the cost of real estate development projects. For example, building density refers to the percentage of building basement area to the total land area, which reflects the rationality of land use and is a control index of urban management. The plot ratio is an important index reflecting the intensity of land development, and there is no dimension. Its connotation is consistent with the building density, but its expression is different. Floor area ratio = total construction area/plot area. Appropriately increasing the average number of floors and building density and controlling the appropriate floor area ratio can reduce the unit cost of real estate development projects and save land, thus effectively reducing the construction funds of the whole project. Example: The residential land area of a city is 5 hectares, and three schemes A, B and C are planned. Scheme A is all six-story houses. Scheme B, 30% of the total construction area is 16-storey high-rise residence, and the rest is 6-storey residence; Scheme C is a 16-storey high-rise residential building.
It can be seen that Scheme B is economical because it absorbs the advantages of Scheme A and Scheme C, and the quantitative factors are transformed into the following evaluation factors (see Table 2).
Therefore, it further shows that the comprehensive economic benefit of scheme B is remarkable.
Another example is the cost performance ratio in the evaluation index of design scheme, which is actually the ratio of project function and cost (that is, the value of the project). Using value engineering to reduce project investment and ensure the same engineering function. Case: Due to the high temperature in summer, a cinema in Chongqing needs to design an air conditioning system to cool down to meet people's requirements for comfort. Original scheme: The mechanical refrigeration system (Freon refrigeration) needs 500,000 yuan. New scheme: after value analysis, it is decided to use the wind of civil air defense tunnel to cool down, with the same function and greatly reduced cost. Through testing and measurement, outdoor air can be cooled through underground rock tunnel (about 1.50m long), which is a natural artificial cold source, and then sent to the cinema hall through fans and a few air supply pipes, so that the wind speed can be controlled within the range required by people and meet the requirements of cinema air conditioning. With only 50,000 yuan, the operation cost, power consumption and maintenance cost are also greatly reduced. Limited to space, other indicators will not be elaborated one by one.
At present, there are evaluation indexes in this system, such as "Economic Evaluation Method of Real Estate Development Projects", commercial housing performance evaluation, and national demonstration community for comfortable living, which can be further established and improved.
1.2 Establish a high-quality employee system.
The feasibility study team of the project should generally include registered real estate appraisers, cost engineers, market researchers and analysts, economic analysts and social and environmental experts.
Economic analysts mainly analyze the macroeconomic trends of the proposed development project during and after its completion from a macro perspective to avoid major deviations.
Social environmental experts mainly guide the project from the perspective of sociology and environmental science.
Market researchers mainly investigate the past and present supply and demand of this area and this kind of property, analyze the current market situation, and predict the future trend with economic analysts.
Cost engineers correctly estimate the prices of civil works, equipment and installation in real estate development projects.
Certified real estate appraiser is the core of the research group, whose task is to participate in the analysis of the future market by economic analysts and other experts, and to summarize the work completed by other personnel, comprehensively use the relevant knowledge of engineering technology, economy and financial management, calculate and evaluate the project as a whole, and prepare a feasibility report (see figure 1 for the operation flow of feasibility study).
2 planning and design stage
The investment in real estate development projects is mainly spent in the construction stage, which is a common understanding of developers. They believe that as long as we strengthen the monitoring at this stage, we can save a lot of costs. In order to do this well, developers strengthen budget review, arrange supervision of materials and quality throughout the construction process, and even shop around to find cheap materials. But after the completion of the project, the developer found that this did not reduce the cost much. The crux of the problem is that developers ignore the monitoring in the design stage. The research results show that the initial design stage of real estate projects affects the project cost by 75%, and the construction drawing design (technical design) stage is 25% ~ 35%. At the initial stage of construction, the possibility of saving project cost through technical measures is 5% ~ 10%. According to foreign statistics, the possibility of saving investment in the planning and design stage is 88%. Once the design drawings are approved, the project cost is basically determined. The design quality is high, which can meet the functional requirements and reduce the cost; If the design is conservative, it will increase the project cost; Rough design will lead to frequent changes in the project and increase the project cost. Design plays a decisive role in the construction period, project cost and quality, and whether good economic benefits can be obtained after completion. Therefore, reasonable design can greatly reduce the project cost and fully tap the design potential, which will be the key to control the cost. What can be done to reduce the cost at this stage?
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