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According to Reuters, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Veleshuk said at the news conference on June 5438+09 that Ukraine will soon start voluntary evacuation to provide assistance to people who want to leave the southern city of Hellson and its surrounding areas.
She said that some local people, including the elderly and those affected by Russian shelling, expressed their wish to leave Hellson and the surrounding areas of another southern city, nikolayev.
According to the report, the Ukrainian government has made the necessary preparations for the evacuation of the people, and stressed that the evacuation is voluntary. The official has not talked about compulsory evacuation at present. Ukraine will be responsible for handling the transportation arrangements for the voluntary evacuation of personnel.
Hellson region is one of the most fierce regions in the Russian-Ukrainian war. It has experienced several rounds of large-scale evacuation since the war.
In July and August this year, Ukraine announced that it would launch a fierce attack in Hellson, calling on local people to evacuate the area as much as possible.
From June+10 in 5438, the Russian side felt that the war in this area was not good and began to evacuate people. 1October110, Russian troops also withdrew from Hellson.
Now, it is Ukraine's turn to carry out the third round of evacuation. Why?
Western media blamed this on the difficulties brought by the destruction of Russia to the lives of local people.
American media reported that two missiles hit a fuel depot in Hellson on the same day that Uzbekistan announced its evacuation. This is the first time that the city's fuel storage facilities have been attacked since Russia withdrew its troops more than a week ago.
The former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine posted a short video on Twitter, apparently showing the smoke billowing after the powerful explosion in Hellson on Saturday. He wrote: "Russia continues its daily terrorist activities." .
The Ukrainian government also accused Russian troops of destroying key infrastructure in Hellson before their withdrawal earlier this month. "They even stole fire engines and ambulances." .
Russian media blamed Ukraine's incompetence.
"The government of Kherson said that the Ukrainian authorities had plunged the city into a humanitarian disaster." The Russian newspaper newspaper reported on the 20th that according to eyewitness accounts, the city of Kherson lacked electricity, water, heating and natural gas, and food and medicine were also in short supply.
According to the report,1at the beginning of October,115000 people were evacuated from the right bank of the Dnieper River, and shoigu, Minister of National Defense, agreed to transfer troops to the left bank and organize a new defense line along the Dnieper River.
Russian media also reported that after Ukrainian soldiers arrived in Hellson, water and electricity in local people's homes disappeared. Nowadays, people are forced to queue up to buy domestic water and charge their mobile phones with street generators within strictly allocated time.
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Judging from the descriptions of Ukraine and Russia, Hellson has been severely devastated by the war, and the basic life of ordinary citizens there has become very difficult.
However, there may be worse things.
"The evacuation of Ukrainian residents from Hellson is not a good sign." Some Russian media reported on the 20th that the so-called evacuation was only to concentrate on "filtering" pro-Russian people who had not evacuated. Earlier, some media photographed pro-Russian Hellson residents tied to posts.
Hellson residents who support Russia are tied to posts.
Russian "ren.tv" website said that Russian troops left Hellson briefly, but "Kiev-controlled terrorists" are trying to liquidate more pro-Russian people there and try to cover up their crimes. According to various channels, employees of the Ukrainian Security Service went door to door looking for "traitors", that is, almost everyone who lived peacefully under Russian rule.
At the same time, Ukraine also accused Russian troops of "killing residents" in Hellson.
Wu Tong News Agency reported on the 20th that in the past two months, more than 700 bodies were found in the occupied territories such as Kharkov, Donetsk and Kherson, of which nearly 90% were civilians.
Kostin, Attorney General of Uzbekistan, made the announcement in a national televised speech. On June 7, Interior Minister Dennis monastir said that law enforcement officers found the bodies of 63 prisoners in Hellson. More bodies of victims have been excavated in the territory occupied by Russia in this area.
More dangerous than filtering and liquidating "pro-Russian" and "pro-Ukrainian" residents is whether the dam of Kahovka Hydropower Station will be blown up.
RIA Novosti reported on the 20th that when Ukraine evacuated helson residents, it introduced the background that if Ukraine's continuous shelling affected the dam of Kahovka Hydropower Station, it would bring the risk of flooding. As the commander of the joint forces, Sulovikin, said, the situation in Hellson has become dangerous to the lives of peaceful residents.
This is war.
Extended reading
Russia and Ukraine released two heavy news, and neither side could move?
"In the past week, the Russian army did not launch cruise missiles and suicide drones against Ukraine." "The Russian President signed a decree allowing foreigners to serve in the Russian army." On 14, two heavy news released by Russia and Ukraine attracted great attention. What information did these two messages convey to the outside world? Lao Liu believes that the combination of the two messages gives people a feeling that Russia and Ukraine are exhausted in this war of attrition of troops and logistics.
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The website "War Zone" 14 of American Power revealed a very explosive news: in the past week, Russian troops did not use cruise missiles and suicide drones to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
This statement comes from Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri ignat.
A spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force said at a media briefing on Monday that Russia, facing a supply shortage, did not launch any cruise missiles in the past week, nor did it use the Iranian-developed "Witness-136" drone to attack Ukraine's power infrastructure. Yuri ignat called this pause "conditional silence".
"Obviously, the enemy can't always launch large-scale missile attacks, because these missile weapons are in short supply. This issue also applies to iskander and Kh-555Kh- 10 1 missiles and' caliber' cruise missiles. "
Ignat said that last month, the Russians only launched 15 caliber missiles. "This means that these missiles are in short supply and they cannot be manufactured quickly and on a large scale."
As for "suspending rocket attacks and other aspects, I think the enemy is accumulating strength, because as I mentioned before, they can't bear the consequences of constantly attacking us," ignat said, which may be related to some situations in Hellson. In the south, the enemy's attention focused on protecting the troops in the area for regrouping and redeployment.
But did the Russian army really suspend its attack on Ukraine because of inventory problems?
Just after the Ukrainian Air Force spokesman issued a statement, the Russian army carried out a series of air strikes on June 5438+05. According to the Russian newspaper Izvestia 15, air raid warnings were issued in most parts of Ukraine, including Kiev. Dnipropetrovsk, nikolayev, Odessa, poltava, Koh Samui and Kharkov, as well as Zaporoge and Hellson controlled by the Ukrainian government, also issued air defense warnings.
The Russian missile shortage described by a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force is consistent with what Major General Budanov, director of Ukraine's defense intelligence agency, told Ukrainian Pravda last month.
At that time, Budanov told Ukrainian media that Russian iskander missiles were about 13%, caliber -PL and caliber -NK missiles were about 43%, and KH- 10 1 and Kh-555 missiles were about 45%.
"Inventory below 30% is usually very dangerous because it has entered the stage of consuming reserve inventory. Due to the lack of missiles and low efficiency and accuracy, they were forced to use drones produced in Iran on a large scale. "
Lao Liu believes that it is difficult for both the spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force and the head of the intelligence agency of the Ukrainian military to accurately grasp the specific inventory of Russian precision strike ammunition and the daily consumption on the battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The Russian missile inventory ratio mentioned by Uzbekistan above, the more specific the figure, the lower the credibility, and the more people feel that it is part of the information war.
But from another point of view, the Russian army has indeed entered the stage where the inventory of precision guided ammunition needs to be carefully calculated. Even if more than a dozen cruise missiles are launched against Ukrainian infrastructure every day, hundreds of cruise missiles are needed every month. This scale is a huge test for Russian military production capacity and Russian military related budget.
Lao Liu believes that after the intensive use of suicide drones by the Russian army some time ago, there may be insufficient inventory of related drones.
In addition to the inventory of missiles and suicide drones, Russia may be more eager for another factor that affects operational sustainability.
According to the ITAR-TASS news agency reported on June 5438+05, on June 5438+04, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to revise the service-related policies of the Russian armed forces. This decree revised the Regulations on Military Service Procedure approved by Russian President 1999 on September 6, 2006.
Lao Liu believes that the influence of this law is very great.
Because according to the new presidential decree, people with foreign nationality or statelessness will be allowed to serve in the Russian armed forces. There are only a few exceptions: like Russian citizens, it is not allowed to sign service contracts with foreigners who have been convicted, are under investigation or have criminal records that have not been eliminated, and it is not allowed to sign service contracts with foreigners who have been administratively punished for drug abuse before the end of their prison terms.
In the past, Russians and foreigners with dual or multiple nationalities had no chance to join the Russian army. This new law has undoubtedly greatly broadened the potential soldiers in Russia.
According to Liu Cha's information, in fact, on September 24th this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law that allows foreign citizens who sign service contracts to become Russian citizens through simplified procedures. In other words, after several months of special military operations against Ukraine, foreign citizens can be naturalized in Russia by joining the Russian army. But the service contract required at that time was at least five years.
The change brought by the new regulations is that the service contract is shortened to at least 1 year, of which 6 months must be served in the war zone. After reaching the time limit, they can choose to become Russian citizens. If accidents such as injuries occur within six months, their right to acquire Russian citizenship will not be affected.
For foreign citizens who have signed a service contract for not less than 1 year, they can directly apply for Russian citizenship without providing a permanent residence permit and have lived in Russia for five consecutive years.
The above preferential conditions reflect the huge demand for Russian military expansion at present.
Russian Viewpoint reported on June 5438+05 that Andrei Klassov, the first vice chairman of the National Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma, said that the new decree issued by Russia would be welcomed by citizens of the former Soviet republics at first, which would greatly increase the size of the Russian armed forces. He said that this decree may arouse the interest of residents in Central Asian countries. He said that even the residents of the Baltic countries may have quite a few people who want to take advantage of the new conditions opened by this law to come to Russia, but the policies of the authorities of these countries that hate Russia will prevent them from doing so.
On June165438+1October1day local time, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that the transfer of Russian troops to the left bank of Dnieper River had been completed.
GorWrigley mikhailov, a Russian military expert, said that young immigrants from these countries who come to work in Russia will be interested in the opportunity to serve in the Russian army. Their main motivation is treatment, and the monthly income of 200,000 rubles is very attractive to immigrants from these countries.
Judging from the above two pieces of information, there is a considerable gap between Russian troops in terms of personnel, precision-guided ammunition, suicide drones and other high-consumption weapons, and the corresponding problems also exist in Ukraine, even more severe. Although western countries continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine, the loss of high-precision weapons and ammunition is very huge in protracted high-intensity operations.
Therefore, Lao Liu believes that it is necessary for both Russia and Ukraine to think about how to fight the next battle. Because of the intensity of war consumption, Russia and Ukraine can't survive.