Compared with the past, in this year's Central Economic Work Conference, in addition to key words such as "housing without speculation", "affordable housing" and "long-term rent", there are also "expected guidance", "virtuous circle" and "exploring new development models" for the first time. In the eyes of the industry, the future real estate policy will keep the bottom line of "housing and not speculating", and at the same time, there will be more policies to support the healthy development of real estate to prevent financial risks.
Reiterate "no real estate speculation" and first mention "expected guidance" and "virtuous circle"
The central economic work conferences held on 20 18, 20 19 and 2020 all mentioned "no housing speculation", and this year is no exception.
According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, the previous meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China did not mention "living in real estate speculation", which caused some misunderstandings. In fact, the positioning of "staying and not speculating" will not change. No matter how to support the just-needed and improved housing demand, there is no support and market for real estate speculation and investment speculation. In the future, in the follow-up policy adjustment, even if it is relaxed, we must strictly abide by the red line of "housing and not speculating".
"If, in the process of releasing the demand for reasonable housing purchase, the local government relaxes the housing purchase policy without a bottom line, or even stimulates real estate through the real estate market, it still faces the possibility of accountability." Yan Yuejin said.
It is noteworthy that "expected guidance" and "virtuous circle" first appeared in the housing-related content of the Central Economic Work Conference.
"Compared with the Political Bureau of the Central Committee's statement, the statement of" virtuous circle "is put in front of" healthy development ". This kind of sorting and tuning can better explain the development of the industry. " Yan Yuejin said that the current real estate market is indeed caught in contradictions and embarrassment that it is difficult to achieve a virtuous circle. For example, the support of bank credit is not strong, which leads to the rapid cooling of the market. This year, many cities have experienced a downward trend in new house transactions for half a year in a row, leading to business risks and debt risks of housing enterprises. This in itself shows that the poor circulation of real estate elements between "market-enterprise-family" leads to the low efficiency of real estate operation and the obvious increase of real estate risks. Therefore, from this perspective, the real estate market can only achieve a virtuous circle between "market-enterprise-household", and the real estate can truly usher in a healthy development space.
This year, many real estate enterprises, including Evergrande, experienced cash flow problems and debt crisis. On February 3rd, 65438, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the Central Bank made another statement to Evergrande, reiterating that Evergrande's debt risk would not have any negative impact on the normal operation of China's banking and insurance industries. 65438+The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on February 6th also explicitly proposed to promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry.
Under the guidance of the goal of "virtuous circle", the future real estate financial policy will also undergo structural adjustment. Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, believes that on the one hand, the financing control of housing enterprises should be moderately relaxed, and real estate development loans and M&A loans should be reasonably distributed to ease the debt pressure of housing enterprises; On the other hand, the housing credit environment has improved, focusing on meeting the mortgage demand of the first suite and improved housing. Under the premise of "housing without speculation", there may be targeted support policies for the just-needed and improved housing demand in the future. It is estimated that the real estate market will be gradually repaired in 2022, and there will be no hard landing, and it will continue to play the role of "stabilizer" for economic operation.
"Exploring a new development model" has become an inevitable choice to prevent and resolve risks.
In addition to "expected guidance" and "virtuous circle" for the first time, "exploring new development models" also appeared in the housing-related content of the Central Economic Work Conference for the first time.
"The development model of high turnover and high leverage formed by China real estate enterprises in the long-term development has faced severe challenges. At present, some real estate enterprises have a debt crisis, which has triggered industry turmoil. " Xu Xiaole said that it is necessary to adopt a combination of unblocking and blocking, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of housing enterprises, and prevent and resolve real estate financial risks from the development model. Real estate development enterprises should explore new development models, which is an inevitable choice to prevent and resolve the development risks of the real estate industry and the only way for the real estate industry to achieve sustainable development.
What should the real estate industry do to "explore new development models"? What areas will usher in development opportunities?
Yan Yuejin believes that the development model of both rent and purchase will be further promoted. During the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the housing market and the rental market will develop in parallel, and the commercial housing market and the affordable housing market will work together. Therefore, it is expected that more policy support will be formed for the development of affordable rental housing.
In the housing-related content of the Central Economic Work Conference, it is also mentioned that we should adhere to both rent and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers.
At the same time, Yan Yuejin said that the incremental market will gradually change into a model of incremental stock development. In particular, speed up the development of the stock market, including urban renewal, old residential areas, property management and housing leasing, in order to better develop the stock market.
In addition, Yan Yuejin said that the mode of making profits by rising house prices and land prices will change, including the promotion of real estate tax, which will further guide the concept of housing consumption to take root and reverse the wrong thinking of housing investment and real estate speculation, including housing enterprises and property buyers. We should actively understand this new development model.
Attachment: Real estate related statements of the Central Economic Work Conference over the years
the year of 2020
Solve the outstanding housing problems in big cities. Housing is related to people's livelihood and welfare. We should adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and adjust measures to local conditions to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
We should attach great importance to the construction of affordable rental housing, speed up the improvement of the long-term rental policy, gradually make rental housing enjoy the same rights in enjoying public services, and standardize the development of the long-term rental housing market. Land supply should be tilted to the construction of rental housing, and the land use plan for rental housing should be listed separately, and the use of collective construction land and idle land owned by enterprises and institutions should be explored to build rental housing. Both state-owned enterprises and private enterprises should play a functional role.
It is necessary to reduce the tax burden of rental housing, rectify the order of the rental market, standardize market behavior, and reasonably control the rent level.
20 19
It is necessary to increase the housing security for people in urban difficulties, strengthen urban renewal and existing housing transformation, do a good job in the transformation of old urban communities, and vigorously develop rental housing. It is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and fully implement the long-term management and regulation mechanism of stabilizing land prices and housing prices due to urban policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
20 18
It is necessary to build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and strengthen the main responsibility of the city government according to the city's policy and classified guidance, and improve the housing market system and housing security system.
20 17
Accelerate the establishment of a housing system with multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase. It is necessary to develop the housing leasing market, especially long-term leasing, protect the legitimate rights and interests of leasing stakeholders, and support the development of specialized and institutionalized housing leasing enterprises. Improve the long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, maintain the continuity and stability of the real estate market regulation policies, distinguish the central and local powers, and implement differentiated regulation.
20 16
It is necessary to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. It is necessary to adhere to the position that "houses are used for living, not for speculation", and comprehensively use financial, land, fiscal, taxation, investment, legislation and other means to speed up research and establish basic systems and long-term mechanisms that conform to national conditions and adapt to market rules, so as to curb the real estate bubble and prevent ups and downs.