As far as the first point is concerned, the so-called short term may be a few years or longer, and it is only a fragment of the economic cycle for economists. But for a person, it is a fraction of his working age and a relatively long fragment. From a sociological point of view, this will have a very adverse impact on the personal physical and mental health of the parties and their children. \ | e & gt(h！ l；
As far as the second point is concerned, although the development of science and technology will inevitably lead to an absolute reduction in the demand for labor in economic activities, this is not only something that will appear in the distant and unknown future, but a trend that has gradually emerged since the industrial revolution. EQe！ & amp；
According to some data provided by Madison in his book "Review of World Economy in Two Hundred Years", under the action of market competition mechanism, as entrepreneurs constantly introduce new production technologies into economic activities, the demand for material factors in production activities is increasing and the demand for labor is decreasing. Taking Britain as an example, according to the international dollar of 1990, the machinery and equipment occupied by each employee in 1820 is 238 yuan, while that in 1992 is 23095 yuan; For the non-residential buildings occupied by each employee, 1882 is 2973 yuan, and 1992 is 4 1797 yuan. In terms of working hours, the average compound annual growth rate of total working hours in Britain is1870-1913+091950-0.46, 1950-6950. In addition, 1820- 1970 is 0.86. [2] These data show that before the First World War, in the process of industrialization in Britain, technological changes coexisted with the increase of labor demand, and then the labor demand began to decrease. From World War II to the 1970s before the economic crisis, although there was another golden age of economic development, the demand for labor was still decreasing, but at a slower pace. Later, until the 1990s, the demand for labor decreased at an accelerated rate. 4 & ltV%7z_。 B
After entering the 1990s, the unemployment rate in Britain and America dropped sharply. By the end of the 20th century, the unemployment rate in the United States had dropped to 4.5%, and the unemployment rate in Britain had also dropped below 5%. This fact seems to announce that the positive correlation between scientific and technological development, labor productivity improvement and high employment rate can still be realized under the high-tech development level such as the United States and driven by sustained high-speed development. However, as British sociologist Giddens said, "In western economies, the proportion of full-time or long-term jobs is decreasing. If we compare the working hours rather than the number of jobs, then we will find that the difference between the "full employment economy" in Britain and the United States and the "high unemployment economy" in Germany and France is not so obvious. " [③ 0R HKzk6~c
Isabella Gruenberg, senior policy adviser of the Development Research Office of the United Nations Development Programme, also pointed out that "according to the UN 1997 report on the global social situation, the proportion of temporary jobs in total employment opportunities has been increasing in the past 20 years-in 10 developed countries, people engaged in such jobs have accounted for 20% of the total employed population." Obviously, these 20 years are a period for developed countries to increase their investment in computer and information industries. It is this high-tech development that has reduced the demand for labor more obviously and generally, thus forcing a large number of laborers to engage in temporary and unstable jobs. mj{B_ 3b 5
Jeremy Rifkin, an American scholar, used his book title "The End of Work-The Coming of Post-market Era" to clearly show that with the development of market economy, the reduction of labor demand has shown an irreversible trend. In the introduction of the book, he pointed out that "the information age has arrived. In the next few years, new and more complex software technologies will bring world civilization closer to a world with few workers. In agriculture, manufacturing and service industries, machines are rapidly replacing human labor. By the middle of 2 1 century, the world economy will be close to fully automated production. " (3) Jeremy Rifkin explicitly refutes the popular economic viewpoint for more than a century, that is, the viewpoint that new technology will increase labor productivity, reduce production costs, increase the supply of cheap products, thereby promoting the improvement of purchasing power, expanding the market and creating more employment opportunities. He used a lot of facts to prove that the rapid development of science and technology not only reduced the demand for manual workers, but also reduced the demand for middle-level managers, because the reform and reorganization of enterprise management met the needs of production automation and informatization. Not only has the demand for labor in the manufacturing industry fallen sharply, but the hope that the service departments and white-collar jobs of "economists and elected officials" can still absorb millions of unemployed people looking for jobs is being dashed. [④] :j(e +A 1@)
More importantly, Jeremy Rifkin also proved with a large number of facts that the replacement of labor force by technological change did not begin in the information age, but began in the early 20th century. After entering the 20th century, in developed countries, because economic development has generally met people's basic living needs, it has become increasingly difficult to achieve that kind of "thrilling jump" in the new product market produced by new technologies with higher efficiency. In the United States, with the rapid improvement of productivity around the 1920s, on the one hand, more and more workers were laid off, on the other hand, a large number of products were accumulated in warehouses and factories. Newspapers began to talk about stories of "buyers' strike" and "limited market". [⑤] S]！ s)q - z
At that time, in order to solve the problem of product backlog, entrepreneurs began to use public relations to mobilize consumers and launched the "consumerism" movement. However, because the Protestant ethics that dominates the pioneering spirit of Americans is deeply rooted in the hearts of Americans. Therefore, it is not easy to turn American frugality into profligacy. In this process, the theory of public relations has been developed and "consumer economics" came into being. Marketing, which used to play a minor role in business, is becoming more important now. Selling goods began to shift from functionalism and descriptive information to stimulating people's enthusiasm for goods that marked social status and social differences. Installment payment and consumer credit have greatly helped this kind of consumerism. Thus, "in less than ten years, a country composed of hardworking and thrifty Americans has become a country that pursues a hedonistic culture of novelty and timely enjoyment." [6] It is precisely because of the above factors that economic development has entered the stage of creating demand with supply. bn 7”！ six
Manqour Olson, an American economist, compared the Great Depression in 1930s with the other biggest economic crisis in American history, 1839- 1843, and proved that the two serious economic crises, which occurred in19th century and 20th century respectively, had severe money supply contraction, but their macroeconomic behaviors were different. Although the price level has declined in these two economic crises, the decline in the price level this time in the 20th century is much smaller than that in19th century. And "according to the actual consumption reduction, 1929- 1933 decreased 19%, while 1839- 1843 increased by 2 1%. What is particularly surprising is that the real gross national product decreased by 30% in 1929- 1933, but increased by 16% in 1839- 1843. " [7] This shows that in the19th century, when the supply exceeds the demand, the economic crisis can be alleviated by falling prices. After entering the 20th century, due to the satisfaction of basic needs, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market cannot be solved by price mechanism alone. Of course, according to Olson's analysis, this is also related to the decisions of various interest groups and monopoly groups. When the supply exceeds the demand, they cut production instead of reducing prices to maintain profit margins. From the perspective of employment, this will further reduce the demand for labor.