There is a story that many investors wanted to buy the bottom in the futures market, and they did so on the floor, but they did not expect that there was a basement under the floor; those who did so in the basement did not expect There is a cellar below; those who were hiding in the cellar did not expect that there is an earth's crust; those who were hiding in the earth's crust did not expect that there is hell; those who were hiding in hell did not expect that there are eighteen levels of hell? It can be seen that there is a bottom underneath. Analyzed from this perspective, doing futures is not about racking your brains to buy the bottom and escape from the top, but to grasp the turning point of the trend. Only when the trend reaches an inflection point can we step in and accurately grasp the trend inflection point, and be the real king of the futures market!

Compared with the technical indicator analysis and technical icon analysis methods discussed above, trend analysis is a higher level of technical analysis and a powerful tool for judging the direction of the market. A popular saying in the market is: "The trend is your friend, always be a follower of the trend." Although it can be said to be a well-known basic principle and operating concept of the financial market, for ordinary investors, it can really be understood. There are not many people who understand the true meaning of "trend", and even fewer people make profits by following the trend. Many investors have been unable to make profits from the market for a long time. The most fundamental reason is that they do not have a clear understanding of the basic concept of trends and cannot correctly judge the main trend of the market. They suddenly realize it only after a market round is over. Almost every time they make a move, they go against the trend. trade. The trend trading method aims to solve the problem of grasping the trend faced by investors and provide practical methods to make profits in trend trading.

The most fundamental trading strategy of trend following is: cut off losses and let profits run. Trend traders believe that no one knows how high or low the market will go; no one knows when the market will fluctuate. You can't let go of the past, and you can't predict the future. It is prices, not traders, that predict the future. The simplest trend following trading is to use the moving average trading method, that is, the long and short moving averages that people used in the past to "buy on golden crosses and sell on dead crosses", but this trading method is not very accurate.

The opposite of trend following trading is the amortized cost method and the buy and hold method. Trend-following traders believe that amortized costs are going to the abyss because the longer the decline lasts, the more likely it is to fall.

Case

Case analysis of formulating stock index futures speculative trading strategy plan

Based on the above analysis of the process and principles of stock index futures speculative trading strategy formulation, we use Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures are taken as an example to illustrate this process in detail (see Figure 1).

Figure 1 Overlay chart of the trend of the CSI 300 current index and the CSI 300 stock index futures March contract before January 5 of a certain year

In January, an investor decided to invest in stock index futures The market tried speculative trading in stock index futures, and the total trading capital he owned was 1 million yuan. How to formulate a speculative trading strategy plan?

1. Conduct an objective analysis of the macroeconomic and industry conditions.

After reviewing a large number of research reports by researchers from securities companies and futures companies, the investor made his own judgment.

At that time, there were four main factors affecting the future trend of China's stock market:

First, the financial tsunami triggered by the financial crisis swept the world. In the context of the global financial crisis that has affected the real economy, China's real economy has been impacted to a certain extent. The global economic growth situation is not optimistic.

It is expected that due to the impact of insufficient demand and rising production costs due to the global economic recession, the weakness of China's industrial output will also intensify that year. From a macroeconomic fundamentals perspective, China's economic development is slowing down, which is a negative side. But the stock market has been falling for more than a year, and most of this bad news should have been digested by the market.

Second, the Chinese government has introduced a number of measures to expand domestic demand, with a total investment of approximately 4 trillion yuan. We will implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, accelerate the construction of people's livelihood projects, infrastructure, ecological environment and post-disaster reconstruction, and improve the income levels of urban and rural residents, especially low-income groups. These are both conducive to promoting economic growth and structural adjustment; they are conducive to stimulating current economic growth and enhancing the potential for economic development; they are both effective in expanding investment and actively stimulating consumption. The issuance of the "Opinions on Further Strengthening the Protection of the Legitimate Rights and Interests of Small and Medium-sized Investors in the Capital Market" issued by the General Office of the State Council has brought positive policy support to the stable and healthy development of my country's financial market. Therefore, China's economy will continue to grow that year. The projected growth of 8% is a safe bet.

Third, from the perspective of national fiscal policy and monetary policy, the People's Bank of China cut interest rates 5 times and adjusted the deposit reserve ratio 9 times that year. The double decline in interest rates and deposit reserves means the beginning of a new domestic currency cycle, which is expected to last for 1 to 2 years. Before the end of the year, deposit interest is expected to drop below 1_5%, and the deposit reserve ratio is expected to drop below 13%. Cutting interest rates sends a signal that the government is determined to "maintain growth" and can boost confidence in the financial market. Out of the government's optimistic expectations of maintaining economic growth, banks may increase credit extension to alleviate the current financial difficulties of enterprises and ultimately affect the real economy. While the bank's existing assets are protected, it will also play a stimulating role in the economy. The shift in monetary policy from moderately tight to relatively loose will have a positive impact on the stock market.

This also demonstrates the determination and symbol of the Chinese government's determination to maintain financial security and maintain the stability of the capital market.

Fourth, the dual threats of inflation and deflation remain within control. The CPI is expected to be around 3.5% that year. The continued decline in prices indicates that the threat of inflation has been eliminated, which is also good for the stock market. In short, there are more positive factors than negative factors, and the macro situation is undergoing a subtle turning point.

2. Conducted technical analysis on chart indicators.

After research, the investor found that from the perspective of technical trends, the CSI 300 Index experienced a weak rebound after reaching a low of 1606.73 points on November 4 of the previous year, and then in December It fell again in the second half of the year, but this time the decline was obviously not strong. There was strong support at 1800 points. Various technical indicators also improved significantly. The gap between the 10-day moving average and the 20-day moving average narrowed, sending a buy signal.

3. Make judgments on the price trend of stock index futures.

Based on fundamental analysis and technical form, the investor believes that after more than a year of decline, the stock market has shown signs of bottoming out, market confidence has gradually recovered, and trading volume has picked up. In the short term, It is unlikely that major bad news will appear again, and the market trend is relatively optimistic.

Based on the above research and judgment, the investor expects that the rising trend of the stock market will continue in the next month, and the rising point will most likely return to a high of more than 2,500 points. He expects that if there is a loss, the point will drop to around the support point of 1,600 points. In this way, the overall gain-loss ratio is approximately 7:2. Therefore, the investor hopes to hold a long position in the March contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures for the next month.

4. Determine the number of futures contracts to purchase and arrange transaction funds reasonably.

Based on the principle that the total position does not exceed 30% of the total funds, the margin that investors can use for the first batch of stock index futures transactions is about 300,000 yuan. On January 5, the March futures contract closed at 1975.8 points. If the closing time is considered as the time to open a position, then:

The margin of each futures contract = 1975.8 × 300 × 10% × 1 = 59274 (yuan) )

The number of IF0903 futures contracts that this investor can purchase = 300000÷59274=5.06≈5 (lots)

5. Setting of stop loss conditions.

According to the stop-loss principle, the investor adopts the 10-day moving average stop-loss method, that is, when the closing price falls below the 10-day moving average, the position will be closed.

6. Choose the time to open a position.

The above assumes that the investor uses the closing price to open a position. However, on January 5, when he is preparing to open a position, the market trend of the March futures contract is not stable (see Figure 2). Choose a reasonable time to open a position. It is indeed possible to earn additional profits on top of original profits. On January 5, there were great differences between the long and short sides in their judgments about the future of the market. Trading was very active throughout the day and the competition was fierce. At 14:45, many parties attacked and the quotation jumped, reaching the third highest point of the day at 1950 points, and then hit a new intraday high. It can be seen that this is a better price for opening a position, which is at least 37,000 yuan less than the total investment cost of opening a position at the closing high. Therefore, when you are sure that you are ready to open a position, you should strive to open a position at the low level of the day.

Figure 2 Time-sharing trend chart of the March contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures on January 5 of a certain year

7. Market monitoring and closing timing selection.

Market monitoring is mainly about the stop-loss issue of the contract, and the choice of timing to exit a position is as critical and technical as the timing of opening a position. The speculator still chooses the closing price to fall below the 10-day moving average as the exit point.

At this point, the entire stock index futures speculative trading strategy plan has been basically determined.

In order to deepen everyone's understanding of stock index futures speculative trading, let's enter the stock index futures market with everyone, participate in stock index futures speculative trading, and actually experience the entire process of stock index futures speculative trading.

Case

Practical experience in stock index futures speculative trading

In early September of a certain year, two investors A and B prepared to speculate in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures markets. trade. Among them, A's futures account has funds of 800,000 yuan, while B's futures account has funds of 300,000 yuan, and the trading margin rate is 10% (the handling fee is ignored).

On September 11, after market marking, research, analysis and thinking, they judged that the March contract would have a downward process in the short term (see Figure 3), so before the market closed, A and B Investors each sold one lot of the contract at 7025.0 points.

The margin required to sell one contract = 7025.0 × 300 × 10% × 1 = 21.075 (10,000 yuan)

A’s available remaining funds = 80-21.075≈59 (10,000 yuan)

A only used about 1/4 of the total funds, which shows that A’s operating style is relatively stable.

B’s available remaining funds = 30-21.075≈9 (10,000 yuan)

B has used more than 2/3 of the total funds, which is close to full position operation, indicating B’s operating style More radical.

Both of them are engaged in short-selling speculation, and their purpose is very clear: to wait for the stock index futures to fall before buying and closing their positions to obtain the price difference. However, the market did not behave as they expected.

The next day, the futures index rose instead of falling, and there was already a floating loss on their books, which made them a little restless. what to do? At this time, investors must consider two issues: First, if they can determine the future market trend with confidence,

Figure 3 Demonstration process of stock index futures speculative operation (1)

For example If you are wrong to speculate short and you should be bullish, then take immediate action on the next trading day, correct the mistake in time, close the short position, buy, open a backhand long position, and wait for the market to rise. However, in most cases, investors are not sure about the market's judgment, and they are lucky, "maybe it will fall tomorrow." Moreover, they are worried about being "slapped" on both sides after going long backhand, and they always want to delay it. Say it again. If this is the case, investors must consider the second major question, which is what if the market continues to rise tomorrow and develops in a direction that is not conducive to holding positions? What is the maximum loss limit you can tolerate? Investors should formulate a worst-case contingency plan to control losses within the range they can bear. This is the stop loss plan often referred to in the futures market. With a stop-loss plan, investors can hold positions with confidence.

Based on the above principles, the two investors formulated a stop-loss plan. They decided: If the futures index breaks through the previous high of 7800.0 points, it means that the rising trend is established, then they will buy to close the position before the market closes and stop the loss; otherwise, the short orders in their hands will remain unchanged.

After 6 days of consolidation, the futures index broke through the previous high of 7800.0 points, and the upward trend was very obvious (see Figure 4). Therefore, two investors, A and B, followed the predetermined stop-loss plan. Before the market closed, I bought and closed 1 contract at the price of 7867.0 points, thus closing my position.

Figure 4 Stock index futures speculative operation demonstration process (2)

The losses of the two investors in this round of trading = (7025-7867) × 300 × 1 = -25.26 (ten thousand Yuan)

Since the upward trend is obvious, you should buy backhand and go long! So the two investors decided to buy and open another position. How much margin is required to buy 1 contract at this time?

The margin required to buy 1 contract = 7867.0 × 300 × 10% × 1 = 23.601 (10,000 yuan)

The funds available in A’s futures account = 80-25.26 = 547,400 Yuan

A quickly bought another contract. But at this time, there was a problem with B's funds:

The available funds in B's futures account = 30-25.26 = 4.74 (10,000 yuan).

B no longer has enough to buy 1 IF0803 contract, so he can only watch the opportunity to make profit disappear, and regretfully admit his loss and exit the market.

It can be seen how important fund management is in stock index futures speculative trading! Precisely because A adopted a sound speculative strategy when he started trading, and did not sell 3 lots of the full position but only opened 1 position, he was able to fight again in the event of a loss without "breaking his muscles and bones". However, because B has a small amount of capital, it is very risky to adopt a strategy of close to full position trading. Once the direction is reversed, he will lose all his money and will not even have the chance to recover his capital. Therefore, small capital is not suitable for stock index futures.

Now only A is still working hard in the stock index futures market, while B can only serve as his "consultant" on the sidelines. Because this market judgment was very correct, the futures index continued to rise. On the seventh trading day, A began to feel restless again. First, there was a large profit in A's account, and he was always worried that the duck he got would fly away; second, the market fluctuated sharply that day, and after rising for several consecutive days, the futures index seemed to be showing signs of adjustment. Can you go out or not? This is a major problem before A.

A seeks the opinion of "Chief of Staff" B. B’s attitude is very resolute: close the position and exit! The reason is that this transaction has fully compensated for the last loss, and since the market shows signs of correction, "a gentleman should not stand under a dangerous wall" and "the thirty-six strategies are the best." A was moved by what he said.

When A was about to place an order to close his position, he accidentally glanced at the market. He suddenly remembered an unforgettable past event?

In 2001, shortly after Kweichow Moutai was listed, A and B bought 1,000 shares each at a price of 37 yuan per share, but what followed was It was a long road, and the stock price fell all the way to more than 23 yuan. A and B encouraged each other and survived without cutting their flesh. Two years later, when the stock price rose to 40 yuan, B, like this time, thought that the increase was almost done, so he sold all 1,000 shares, making a profit of nearly 10,000 yuan. However, A has never been willing to sell Kweichow Moutai. To this day, the original investment of less than 40,000 yuan has increased many times?

A calmed down and found that the current CSI 300 spot index was only over 4,000 points. , based on the research and judgment of this bull market, it is very certain that the market will rise to 5,000 points, and many analysts have seen 8,000 points. After careful consideration, A did not close the position.

The next day, futures prices fell sharply at the opening, and B yelled, complaining that A did not listen to his advice. A also feels a little regretful. However, the futures index pulled up again at the end of the market, and the bullish momentum was strong. A let out a long sigh of relief.

The rise accelerated in the subsequent trading days (see Figure 5).

This made A deeply realize that if speculative traders want to become a leader in the stock index futures market, they must possess three major qualities: First, they must be rational, calm, objective, accurately judge the market trend, and only by being able to make big money by seeing the general trend, they cannot follow what others say. , we must form our own research and analysis system. The second is to have a strong awareness of risk control and effective risk control methods, and never be soft-hearted when it is time to stop losses. Just imagine, if you sell at 7025 and hold on until now without stopping the loss, not only will you not be able to turn defeat into victory now, but you will lose all your 800,000 yuan, which is not enough. It is a fulfillment of a wise saying in the futures market: "Don't be afraid of mistakes, be afraid of delays." The third is to have strong psychological endurance, and "dare to make money" when the direction of the position is favorable, rather than "being trapped" Dare to lose money."

Figure 5 Stock index futures speculative operation demonstration process (3)

A communicates his trading experience with B. Comparing his own trading behavior, B discovered that his biggest shortcoming was that his vision was too short-sighted. So B humbly asked A: When will he appear? A pondered for a while and replied: "I don't know either. But since we can't tell where the top is for the time being, we can set up a 'stop-profit plan' just like we had a stop-loss plan before, based on the 5-day movement with trend characteristics. The average line is the take-profit line. As long as the closing price falls below this line, it is the time to close the position. If it does not fall below this line, it will remain unchanged." B nodded in approval. There is a "stop-loss plan" when losing money and a "stop-profit plan" when making profits. This is a magic weapon for futures speculators to control risks and personal emotions and remain invincible in the market.

However, B’s mind is more alert and flexible than A’s after all. On October 17, in the stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded the 6,000-point mark, and the CSI 300 Index also reached 5,890 points. The market was in a state of frenzy. At the same time, in the stock index futures market, the contract price once exceeded 13,000 points during the session. After careful consideration, Person B promptly raised his concerns to Person A: 13,000 points means that by the time of delivery in March, market participants are already betting that the CSI 300 Index will reach 13,000 points, while the stock market has only risen by more than 3,000 points from the beginning of the year to October. It is only around 6,000 points now. Will the stock market index double again in just 5 months? Taking all other factors into consideration, how likely is this? Obviously, speculators in the futures market are currently in a feverish state of mind and have lost their minds. After hearing this, A suddenly wakes up and thinks that B's analysis this time is very objective and has a long-term vision. The risk of market decline is indeed great, and it is time to sell and close the position. However, if you close the position at this time, it does not meet the conditions of the "take profit plan" set because the 5-day moving average is still near 11,000 points at this time, and it will take several days before the closing price falls below it.

Which plan will A take to close the position? We leave this suspense to everyone, it’s a matter of opinion. Please calculate the overall profit after entering the market at different prices.

Figure 5 is a diagram of different trading behaviors and results. What needs to be reminded is that the "stop-profit plan" or "stop-loss plan" is not the best trading plan, but a risk control plan in the worst case scenario. It is a last resort for investors when there is no other better plan. The final action that must be taken.