Since the rise of the Warriors in 2015, NBA teams have paid more and more attention to offense beyond the three-point line, and three-point shots have also increased year by year. Ten years ago, three-pointers were not popular with many teams. At that time, the Magic, which took the most three-pointers, only averaged 27.3 per game. Now, the Pacers, who take the fewest three-pointers, also have 27.5. It can be said that the Warriors pushed the league into the "small ball era", but the real rise of the "magic ball theory" can still be attributed to D'Antoni.
When D'Antoni took over as head coach of the Rockets in 2017, Howard had just left and Harden was leading the team alone. In order to maximize the team's offensive efficiency, D'Antoni began his magic ball experiment: giving up the mid-range, and all players only shot three-pointers or layups. This caused the Rockets' three-point shots to increase sharply from 30.9 last season. Ranked first in the league with 40.3 times. After the introduction of Paul, Tucker, and Mbah a Moute in 2018, the Rockets began to use the "infinite defense change" defensive strategy, which formed a relatively complete "magic ball system."
However, this system has very obvious flaws, especially after the Rockets sent Capela away and focused on playing small ball, its flaws became more and more obvious. Next, we will take the fourth battle between the Clippers and the Rockets as an example to analyze the three fatal flaws of the Rockets' current "magic ball system."
After Capela was sent away in exchange for Covington, Tucker, who was only 1.96 meters tall, became the center of the Rockets. This allowed them to face all other teams in the interior. Absolute disadvantage. The Rockets averaged 44.9 rebounds per game this season, ranking 14th in the league. However, in the past 14 games after the trade, their average rebounds per game dropped to 39.9, ranking fifth in the league. At the same time, in these 14 games, the Rockets only had more rebounds than their opponents in 1 game. Among them, when the difference in rebounds is less than 5, the Rockets have a winning percentage of 100 and win all 6 games; otherwise, the winning percentage is only 28.6, with 2 wins and 5 losses. There is a famous saying in "Slam Dunk": "Controlling the rebounds can control the game." It can be said that the Rockets have proved the rationality of this sentence with practice.
In the game against the Clippers, the Rockets once again felt their powerlessness against tall and strong inside players. Clippers center Zubac grabbed 5 rebounds in the first quarter and scored a double-double of 17 points and 12 rebounds in just 20 minutes. Faced with a player nearly 20 centimeters taller than him, Tucker, who has always been known as a tough guy, was helpless and could only watch him wreak havoc in the Rockets penalty area.
The advantage of the inside is not only reflected in rebounding. Zubac's height also caused a lot of trouble for the Rockets when the Clippers attacked. For example, in the following round, Zubac and Leonard played a simple pick-and-roll and then passed down. Leonard threw it casually, and Zubac easily caught the ball in the paint and made an alley-oop layup. Rockets players can't do anything about it, they can only watch the ball and sigh.
It can be said that for the Rockets, which focuses on the "small ball + magic ball" system, the problem of interior height is their Achilles heel. When both sides begin to engage in positional battles in the playoffs, the Rockets will feel the pain of not having a serious center.
The Rockets' unlimited defense system can be said to be built for the Warriors. The purpose is to dismantle the Warriors' offensive system based on pick-and-roll and pass-cutting, cut off the connection between players, and force the opponent to engage in unlimited singles. The Rockets use this defensive strategy to be very effective against most teams, but the effect will be less effective against teams with several top ball-handling singles players, and the Clippers are such a team.
The Clippers have many outstanding singles players this season. Leonard, Paul George, Lou Williams and Reggie Jackson are all top outside ball handlers, and among them Leonard His singles ability is the most outstanding. According to statistics, 56 of Leonard's shots this season have been non-layup two-point shots, that is, mid-to-short-range shots, which are considered the least efficient offensive method. But on this basis, Leonard still scored 1.07 points per single round, ranking third among all players who averaged more than three singles rounds per game, second only to Harden and Lillard.
The disadvantage of unlimited defense changes is that there is no specific main defensive player, because every pick-and-roll will change defense, so stars who are good at singles can "select" their favorite singles players through pick-and-rolls. For example, in the following round, Leonard and Beverley picked and rolled, avoiding the top defender Tucker, choosing House, who has a relatively average singles defense, and finally made an easy fadeaway jumper. This can weaken the restrictions on the team's offense caused by unlimited defense changes. Effect.
When the opposing star hits consecutive singles, defensive players sometimes have doubts about the unlimited defense strategy and think that double-team defense may be used. At this time, it is easy to lead to the phenomenon of missed players. For example, in the following round:
Leonard, Beverley and Zubac made a simple double screen. At this time, Tucker and Covington were hesitant about whether to switch defenses, resulting in a missed pass. Zubac went forward, and finally Zubac received a pass from Leonard and dunked easily. The tactical chart is as follows:
To sum up, unlimited defense changes are not simple brainless defense changes. It requires players to have a certain tacit understanding and be able to make correct judgments on the situation on the field and understand the situation. When should we switch defenses and when should we go up and delay, otherwise the best results will often not be achieved.
The "Magic Ball Theory" is essentially the pursuit of high efficiency. After data analysis, the Rockets believe that three-point shots are more cost-effective than two-point shots from mid-range, and this is not completely unreasonable. For example, if a player's mid-range shooting percentage reaches 45, he will average 0.9 points per mid-range shot; and if his three-point shooting percentage reaches 35, he will average 1.05 points per three-point shot. If you look at it this way, the three-point shot will be more efficient. However, this algorithm does not take into account an important aspect that affects the game: the inconsistency of the three-point shot.
Compared with mid-range, three-pointers are more unstable. Even if the team made 24 three-pointers in the previous game, they might hit 27 consecutive three-pointers in the next game. If a team's season three-point shooting percentage is 35, then their game shooting percentage often does not fluctuate between 34 and 36, but fluctuates greatly between 25 and 45. In the playoffs, there are only a maximum of 7 games in a round series, and sometimes the team will collectively misfire at a certain period of time, such as the Raptors in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year. If there are no mid-range shots at this time and only rely on superstars to hit the basket for singles, then the team's offense will become difficult at this time.
As one of the representative systems of the "small ball era", the "Magic Ball System", like other famous basketball systems in history, has very distinctive characteristics. It is a product of this era. Regardless of whether the Rockets can succeed through this system, the "Money Ball System" will leave its own mark in basketball history.
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