No one seems to like uncertainty. We are always asking in life, what does it mean? What is the final outcome? Whether we are watching movies, playing games, or starting a business, we will all be very troubled by uncertainty, and even hate this uncertainty.
VUCA, volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity. What it means is that on the battlefield, a commander is faced with these four characteristics all the time. It is a huge challenge for you to make a deterministic decision and take action in this VUCA atmosphere. Especially when we face an uncertain scene, we need to make a deterministic response.
In fact, many of the experiences we pursue contain uncertainty. It can even be extended that the reason why our life is worth living is because it is full of uncertainty.
There is a positive correlation between depression and social welfare. It can be said that each of us hopes to live in a society with good welfare protection. ?There are all kinds of disadvantages in the deterministic society. Finally, he said: "All in all, life is worse than death." This is very extreme. What he means is that if a person's life is so certain, you will often lose sight of him. Interest is like watching a movie once, twice, or three times. If I ask you to continue watching the movie every day, or even all the time, you will feel very uncomfortable.
Depression occurs in societies with a high degree of urbanization and welfare. The number of depression will be very high. People who worry about all kinds of things all day long, and whose future is full of uncertainty, have not yet had time to rush for life. How can they have time to suffer from depression?
The so-called travel is nothing more than going from a place where you are tired of living to a place where others are tired of living, which creates a certain sense of freshness, strangeness, and uncertainty. Self-driving travel has become particularly popular in recent years. The reason is that the biggest difference between self-driving travel and the kind of travel where there are tour guides and travel agencies that plan the itinerary for you is that there are various uncertainties on this journey, and this uncertainty requires you to use Expensive to buy.
What is the difference between a painter and a real artist? A craftsman is nothing more than producing a product without any doubt according to the prescribed process and prescribed techniques. When the artist creates, the final form of the work often surprises even himself.
When we talk about running life and managing businesses, we face a lot of uncertainty. The uncertainty you are talking about is on another level. But what I want to say is that the difference between the two is actually not that big. Comrade Trump and I are close friends on this point. Trump said in the book "The Art of the Deal" he wrote when he was 40 years old, "Everyone thinks My real gain is that I have made a lot of money and have a certain status, but in my opinion, what really makes me happy is making money and working on a project that is full of suspense and thrills, but in the end I A feeling that can be solved.
Treat uncertainty as a kind of climate and air. Don’t fight with the climate and air. When it rains, don’t blame God. God can’t hear you. Just hold an umbrella or take a taxi. Anyway, there are various methods. What is wisdom in Zen Buddhism? It means eating when you are hungry and sleeping when you are tired.
When faced with an uncertain event, you should have a way to deal with it. Don't change the world, but deal with it in a very effective way. This is the first step.
Second, in the face of uncertainty, we should adopt a mentality of embracing it. The meaning of life may lie in some uncertainty. If the uncertainty really disappears, there will be a disaster waiting for you, then It's depression.
wbf
The charm of investment also lies in the constant changes of certainty.
What exists is reasonable.
If something makes you uncomfortable, shouldn't you reflect on your incorrect attitude towards it? Life is like fighting monsters and clearing levels. Only by patiently thinking about how to overcome can you not be afraid, and you can even predict when and where the little ghosts will appear.
The analysis and explanation of "uncertainty" in the "Book of Changes" and "Tao Te Ching" do not need to be thought about in detail. "Tongjian", many of the records in it can be regarded as the wonderful extension of "uncertainty". So I came up with some ideas. The currently popular and seemingly novel and cutting-edge views and formulations can actually have their roots in Chinese classical classics.
Invest in looking for the three aspects of certainty that play the main contradiction among the uncertainties. The process of searching is similar to the process of playing games. There is a high probability that it will not be smooth sailing. Which three aspects: future environment, future prosperity, and future market capital preferences. Big bull stocks must be driven by ***. This is how the big bull stock Moutai came out. If we stand at the time of the three public consumption issues in 2014 and think about the future: private consumption can fully support the high-end liquor market, rather than relying on the government; people still have business and entertainment, and economic development will increase the demand for high-end; the internationalization of the A-share market, Overseas mature institutional funds continue to enter the market and change the fund preferences on the market.
A friend’s thoughts: “When you are thinking about uncertain factors, you must find those “hidden” deterministic ideas. For example, I once had an argument that I had to deal with when faced with When it comes to things that may have more variables or are less clear, I always say to myself: I won’t make any judgments now, but I have to be prepared to make any judgments. By thinking this way, my mind will be settled, just like that. When I encounter something that is more laborious and energy-consuming, I recite Wang Yangming's famous saying in my mind: Only by grinding on things can we be able to stand still, move and be still, and then my mind will be stable and it will be easier to move on. Solving difficult problems. "Uncertainty" and "certainty" are also relative. We can also think and explore based on the idea of ??yin and yang's unity of opposites, interdependence and conditional transformation in the "Book of Changes"
Sufficient conditions. and necessary conditions