On the afternoon of May 25th, the State Council held a national video conference on economic stability, which was notified to all provinces, cities and counties (districts). The meeting demanded that steady growth should be placed in a more prominent position, efforts should be made to protect market players, protect employment and people's livelihood, protect China's economic resilience, strive to ensure reasonable economic growth and unemployment rate decline as soon as possible in the second quarter, and keep the economy running in a reasonable range.
"the State Council executive meeting identified 33 policies and measures to stabilize the economy in six aspects, and operational implementation rules should be issued before the end of May, which should be exhausted. The State Council (May) will send an inspection team to 12 province on the 26th to carry out special supervision on policy implementation and supporting conditions. " At this meeting, the CPC The Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and People's Republic of China (PRC) Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China put forward clear requirements.
These six aspects and 33 measures to stabilize the economy were put forward at the the State Council executive meeting on May 23rd, which stabilized the basic economy from eight aspects, including finance, finance, investment, consumption, industrial chain, energy, employment and real estate. Specifically including:
More industries have implemented full stock and incremental tax rebates, increasing tax rebates by140 billion yuan. The total tax refund and reduction for the whole year was 2.64 trillion yuan.
We will extend the three social security premium policies for small and medium-sized enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households and five poverty-stricken industries to the end of the year, and extend them to other poverty-stricken industries. It is estimated that 320 billion yuan will be deferred this year.
This year's new special bonds (the remaining amount is about 2.3 trillion yuan) were basically issued before the end of June and basically put into use before the end of August, and the scope of support was extended to new infrastructure. The re-guarantee cooperation business of the national financing guarantee fund increased by more than 1 trillion yuan.
For small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households loans, truck loans, temporary personal mortgage loans, support banks to postpone the repayment of principal and interest during the year; The 90 billion commercial vehicle loans issued by auto central enterprises should be linked by banks and enterprises and postponed for half a year.
This year, large state-owned commercial banks increased small and micro loans by10.6 trillion yuan. Using structural tools such as scientific and technological innovation, inclusive pension, and special refinancing for transportation and logistics, it is estimated that the refinancing funds will exceed 1.4 trillion yuan.
Guide financial institutions to speed up the progress of loans, and plan to increase policy development credit by 800 billion yuan. Increase civil aviation emergency loans by 654.38+050 billion yuan, and support the aviation industry to issue bonds by 200 billion yuan.
Relax the purchase restriction of automobiles and reduce the purchase tax of some passenger cars by 60 billion yuan in stages. Support the rigid and improved housing demand for urban policies. Support the issuance of 300 billion yuan of railway construction bonds.
Simply calculate, the total amount of funds involved above is about 10.8 trillion yuan.
In mid-May, during his inspection tour in Yunnan, the Prime Minister emphasized that "the new measures that can be seen accurately will be finished in May". At the executive meeting in the State Council on May 23rd, the Prime Minister once again stressed that all regions and departments should enhance their sense of urgency and pay close attention to implementation, and relevant departments should refine the package of measures item by item and announce their implementation as soon as possible.
As the Prime Minister said, China, as a super-large economy, once its economic operation slips out of a reasonable range, it will be difficult to pull it back without paying a huge price and taking longer.
"(Governments at all levels) tap their own policy potential according to local conditions to help market players get rid of difficulties, stabilize jobs and expand jobs. Treat all kinds of market entities such as state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign enterprises equally. " Li Keqiang stressed.
The National Conference on Stabilizing the Economic Market not only emphasized the national stabilization of the economic market, but also released a strong signal to stabilize the property market.
According to the reporter, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, made two important statements on real estate at this meeting. First, urge financial institutions to adhere to the "two unwavering", increase support for private enterprises, and correct the credit contraction of private housing enterprises as soon as possible. Second, the city supports reasonable housing demand and keeps the real estate market running smoothly.
The financing problem of private housing enterprises has not been alleviated. The data shows that from June 5438 to April this year, the domestic and overseas bond financing of housing enterprises totaled about 235 billion yuan, down 4 1% year-on-year. Among them, the scale of overseas bonds was about 44.2 billion yuan, down 65% year-on-year; The domestic financing scale is about 654.38+0908 billion yuan, down 30% year-on-year.
Private housing enterprises have the greatest debt pressure.
According to the statistics of Essence Securities, a total of 680.62 billion yuan of real estate bonds matured in 2022, and the maturity scales in each quarter were 65.438+07.465438+200 million yuan, 65.438+07.853 billion yuan, 203.73 billion yuan and 65.438+02.424 billion yuan respectively. The pressure of maturity in the first three quarters is obviously greater.
In terms of domestic debt, private housing enterprises have a total of 230 billion yuan of real estate debts due in the whole year, of which 74.8 billion yuan expired in the third quarter; The annual maturity scale of real estate debts of state-owned enterprises is 654.38+0246 billion yuan. In terms of overseas debt, in 2022, a total of 410.70 billion US dollars of private housing enterprises' debts expired, and the pressure of maturity in the first three quarters was relatively high, all of which were around10.65438+0 billion US dollars; The annual maturity of dollar bonds of state-owned real estate is only $8 billion.
It is an indisputable fact that the current real estate market is going down, and it is difficult to solve the dilemma of sales return. For housing enterprises, it is extremely urgent to prevent the spread of debt default, save industry credit and restore the normal financing of housing enterprises.
The convening of the National Economic Stability Conference has made the industry see hope. "The turning point is coming. It is expected that the central bank, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments will introduce various policies in different ways to support real estate enterprises to resume financing. " A real estate company thinks.
At the same time, policies aimed at supporting rigid and improved housing demand will also be launched more vigorously. Lian Ping, chief economist of Trust Investment and president of the research institute, predicted that the easing policy of the real estate market will be further exerted, and strong policies and measures will be further introduced in view of the differentiation characteristics of the real estate markets in different places from demand and supply, so as to release the housing demand in the market and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. With the adjustment of the central policy, the local real estate policy will gradually be moderately relaxed.
He believes that in terms of housing credit, commercial banks will further provide stable credit support, and there is still room for moderate downward adjustment of residential mortgage interest rates; More cities will reduce the down payment ratio of mortgage loans, including key second-tier cities and some first-tier cities. The regulatory authorities will create a relatively relaxed financial environment and increase direct financial support for qualified housing enterprises, including introducing non-performing asset management companies by means of bonds, trusts, REITs, credit default swaps or credit risk mitigation certificates to alleviate the cash flow and debt pressure of housing enterprises. Some key cities will relax land auction rules, cancel or adjust construction plans with high competitive standards, and revitalize the land market. Relaxing the supervision standard of pre-sale funds will reduce the financial pressure of housing enterprises to a certain extent and improve the enthusiasm of land acquisition and construction.
On the afternoon of May 25th, the governments of Hubei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Henan provinces immediately held a meeting to arrange the implementation measures after the organization listened to and watched the national video conference on stable economy.
"In accordance with the requirements of" all-round top-notch, all-out, accurate and efficient ",we will fully implement various policies to help enterprises get rid of difficulties, and promote precision drip irrigation and direct enjoyment policies one by one, so that market players can benefit early and really quench their thirst." Wang Hao, Governor of Zhejiang Province said.