Chapter 1 Starts with Certainty

When thinking about the future, the first question that comes to many people’s minds is: What will change in the future? The author of this book applies the "contrary to the opposite" way of thinking and asks the question: What things will not change in the future? If you want to predict the future, you must start with certain things.

Cyclic changes and linear changes

Among the many changes in the world, there are two types of changes, one is cyclical change, and the other is linear change.

The so-called cyclical change refers to the cycle of changes, such as the change of the four seasons, the rotation of day and night, and even the rise and fall of the stock market. Warren Buffett knows this well. He has a famous saying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. After accurately grasping the cyclical changes, you can use your foresight to create a favorable situation for yourself.

The so-called linear change is non-periodic and gradual. It does not cycle back and forth, but only develops in a single direction. In other words, there are ups and downs, just like human aging. Reverse growth is what people yearn for, but it is just a fantasy. Because it is rare, the word boy is now used in a bad way. Furthermore, with the advancement of technology, from 2G, 3G, 4G, to 5G, it is said that the research and development of 6G has already been put on the agenda. The speed of network transmission will become faster and faster, and the functions of computers and mobile phones will become more and more powerful.

Relatively speaking, linear change is the key. Since there are no ups and downs to follow, it can create unique environments and opportunities. To a large extent, foresight is about recognizing linear changes and discovering their relationship to cyclical changes.

Elvis Presley Fallacy & Hard Trend & Soft Trend

Elvis Presley Fallacy

When Elvis Presley died, out of love for this legendary superstar, A large number of Elvis imitators emerged in a short period of time. Someone built a model and used the data at the time to make a prediction: By the year 2000, one in every three Americans will become a professional Elvis impersonator. This conclusion is obviously absurd. Every era has its heroes. When the heroes of the new era appear, the influence of the heroes of the previous era will naturally decrease. As time goes by, people's willingness to watch Elvis impersonations decreases, and accordingly, people's willingness to imitate Elvis Presley also decreases. This involves two concepts: hard trend and soft trend.

Hard trends and soft trends

Hard trends are speculations based on measurable, perceptible, and predictable facts, things, or objects; soft trends are based on seemingly visible , statistically derived guesses that appear to be predictable. The hard trend will definitely come true and is a certainty in the future; the soft trend is a variable that may occur in the future. Some hard trends are cyclical and some are linear. Both types of changes can form hard trends.

The so-called power of foresight: 1. If you find hard trends, you can see the future; 2. If you find soft trends, you can build the future.

The baby boom that emerged in the United States after World War II is a typical hard trend. A large number of babies are born in a short period of time, which puts a lot of pressure on the medical system; then a large number of children go to school, which has a greater impact on the education system; when the population is concentrated and enters old age, pension expenditures and corresponding service measures The demand has increased sharply.

Seeing this, I naturally think of ourselves. We are also rapidly entering an aging society. Are we ready to face a large number of silver-haired people? Or, can we find any opportunities to help our careers grow while coping well with aging?

Guidelines for Action

The following are the action suggestions listed by the author at the end of this chapter. I think they are all great and I would like to share them with friends who are lucky enough to read this article.

·You should develop the habit of starting with certainties and list the things you already know and can do. Don’t trap yourself in the “can’t do it” cage.

·Examine life and work, and list the phenomena of cyclical changes.

· List the linear changes that affect your life.

·Check the industry you are engaged in, list all hard trends, and eliminate items that are not sure whether they are hard trends. Make a list of all soft trends so you know which ones you can change or influence.

·Don’t be blinded by the unknown, ask yourself: What am I sure of? What are some things that I am sure will happen in a few weeks, a few months, a few years? How can I be creative and use these certainties?

·Find out the processes that will definitely happen and those that may happen, and ask your company’s colleagues, partners and even customers for their opinions. After getting the results, take action to create a better future.