In the forecast of 20 19, senior economists and real estate experts also have conflicting views, and even frequently staged "shouting from a distance". The recent remarks by Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Essence Securities, and Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities can best represent this situation.
Gao Shanwen said to the future trend of real estate: "I don't think the real estate price will be adjusted as much as many people say." Jiang Chao, on the other hand, thinks that the real estate prices in China should fall in an orderly way, with the average decline limited to 20%-30%. In addition to these two representative views, in 20 18, the two also had a confrontation on whether the inventory has reached a historical low, whether supply or demand determines the house price, and whether supply or price is the core of the house price.
How will the real estate market perform in 20 19? Some insiders also expressed his views to reporters.
"At present, the down cycle of the property market has been determined. In this cycle, the real estate market is more about avoiding excessive cooling. It is estimated that the first-tier and second-tier hotspot cities will maintain the existing regulatory policies in 20 19, but in terms of policy implementation, individual cities may adjust according to the actual situation. In third-and fourth-tier cities, in the case of large inventory and downward pressure on housing prices, the probability of directional easing is greater. "
Policy: urban policy
This regulation, which started from 20 16, now seems to have reached the policy climax. "The policy bottom of the national real estate market has arrived," experts judged.
2065438+From May to August, 2008, the "regulation tide" struck again, and the central government emphasized adhering to regulation. Cities continue to introduce regulatory policies to tighten the property market, and inspection teams supervise the implementation effect. On July 3 1 day, Shenzhen officially issued a document to join the "restricted sales" urban agglomeration, and the regulation of the property market in first-tier cities entered a "five-limit" state of restricted purchases, loans, businesses and sales. By the end of the year, from11–65438+February, the real estate policy was basically stable, and the binding policy dropped sharply.
With the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference and the National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference, the property market has been strictly controlled or ushered in an inflection point-"policy-oriented, classified guidance" has become the most important link.
Before and after the central government set the tone, Heze City, Shandong Province, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, Hengyang City, Hunan Province and other places have loosened the property market.
But how to formulate specific policies for cities in the future seems to be debatable.
China Index Academy's forecast of the real estate market in 20 19 indicates that the demand-side restrictive regulation policy will continue to be promoted in 20 19, while the supply side will continue to focus on increasing short-term supply, adjusting the housing and land supply structure, improving financing services for affordable housing, promoting the construction of medium-and long-term housing system reform policies, and continuing to guarantee "effective supply".
The 20 19 property market trend outlook of tongce research institute points out that the policy of 2065 438+08+X will be implemented due to the city's policy.
"'18+x' is the local government's self-regulation, and the regulation policies are divided into18 mandatory items plus 25 optional policies. Among them, 18 compulsory items are divided into four directions and principles. First, set core indicators, only assess indicators, not mandatory measures; Second, we must continue to adhere to the principle of' housing and not speculating'; The third is to increase the construction of leasing and affordable housing; The fourth is to increase land supply. " The same policy research predicts that "among the 25 hot cities monitored by the same policy,'18+x' will be piloted in 22 cities including Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen, among which 10 will be piloted in 65438+ 10."
Take "three stabilities" as the goal
65438+The National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction held on February 24th put forward the overall goal of "stabilizing housing prices, land prices and expectations" in housing construction in 20 19 years.
And this "stability" also gives a negative answer to the bullish or bearish real estate market. "Steady"-it can fluctuate slightly, but it can't go up or down.
"The market will always fluctuate. The so-called stability is just that the fluctuations are not so obvious. " Some institutional analysts said.
Experts believe that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has put forward the requirement of "stabilizing housing prices". This stability is not just stability. First-and second-tier hotspot cities should keep rising, and third-and fourth-tier cities should beware of falling.
(The above answers were published on 20 19-0 1-02. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )