Let's talk nonsense first and answer how I stepped into macro research. As a finance major, undergraduate students study mathematical economics, and graduate students study in the finance department with strong value investment atmosphere. The word value investment has always been regarded as a standard and sacred. In my opinion, the macroeconomic analysis at that time had several characteristics: First, the macro academic schools were complex, from the classical school to Keynes and then to the monetary school. Without careful study of economic history, it is impossible to distinguish which view is which school, let alone guide investment practice; Secondly, I have studied ramsey model, RBC model and other mathematical models since I was an undergraduate. Although I can't say how well I have learned them, first of all, the assumptions of the model itself are too far from empirical facts, and it is difficult to really rely on money. Thirdly, it is true that there are too many godhead leaders in the field of macro-research in China. At that time, there was an atmosphere of "despising godhead" in the circle. If you don't despise godhead, it seems that you are not a student of Peking University. In this atmosphere, the target is naturally aimed at the bottom-up analysis paradigm, and the main battlefield is naturally stocks.

Later, I was looking for a job near graduation, and my last internship was studying banking at Vanity Fair. Although the bank didn't come up with any tricks, I reviewed some knowledge points of monetary economics through this internship, which happened to be the magnificent bull market of A shares of 14- 15. It taught people a super bull market brought by money in minutes and deepened my impression of the proposition that "the most important source of investment income may be the allocation of large-scale assets". It is not profound enough to think about it now. If the bull market of 15 doesn't make any money, then hurry up and start buying houses and bonds when the stock market crashes in June, and buy steel and coal at 16. Maybe it will be @ #% now?

From then on, I realized a problem. If you want to make money, you must first confirm what to buy and make the right choice, which is more important than how hard you work. Which research perspective has the widest vision of asset allocation? Nature is a macro knowledge. Which strategy is most suitable for large-scale asset allocation is naturally a macro hedging strategy. Which asset type is most closely related to the macro, naturally bonds. From then on, I may have confirmed my "love" for macroeconomic and hedging strategy research and embarked on the road of steady income.

Why "love"? In fact, it has always been "incomplete love, not at ease." After graduation, I went to the asset management department of a bank. When I was training, a high-level senior talked about quantitative strategies. Just before and after the stock market crash 2.0, I lost money and was extremely disappointed with the instability of my investment strategy. I asked on the spot: "Even the quantitative strategy was still lost in the stock market crash, and the hedging list was raised by an association, which restricted the opening of positions and greatly reduced the protection. Even if you avoid the market risk, it is greatly reduced. . What did the seniors say? I've forgotten all about it now, except that the little friends who trained together at that time were all laughing happily. In fact, until now, I still "love incompletely". I doubt not only myself, but also this business, but I still love this business. This is destiny.

Therefore, I opened a collection of works, "How Macro-research guides investment practice", as my own record, and also urged myself to make progress and strive for more valuable discussions every week to entertain myself.

There are several key words in the title of the anthology: macro research, guidance, investment and practice. If you take it apart, the first question to answer is: "What is macro research?"

Let's start with a few quick questions and answers; A:

Q 1: What areas does macro research focus on?

A 1: Macro research focuses on different fields. For example, the government and schools pay attention to the theory and practice in the fields of economic growth, economic cycle, monetary policy and financial system stability, while large companies and securities research institutions pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic operation on asset prices.

Q2: Are the objects of macro research the same?

A2: It's the same in a broad sense, but it's quite different. For example, academic circles pay attention to economic growth, and the research perspective of growth economics is long. Besides human capital, it also involves factors such as production relations, economic system and even political system. Their research object is naturally different from the chief researcher, and their starting point and foothold are also different.

Question 3: So what is a useful macro study?

A3: You can make money if you are useful. Therefore, those macro studies that can answer which assets have better returns and better risk-return ratio in the next three months to 12 months are useful.

To achieve this state, I'm afraid it's not that simple, and it needs to go through several stages:

First, as a beginner, it is great to be able to establish a basic macro-analysis framework, track, adjust and interpret various economic data, and establish direct feedback of data on asset prices;

Second, with some experience, it is found that the strategy based on direct feedback is general, and there will be major mistakes (such as 15 A-share bull market, but the economic environment is weak). At this time, we began to expand our analytical framework, including the final results caused by different combinations of conditions in the past by induction, supplementing the possibility under the framework of direct feedback and re-empowering, or studying psychology and sociology by deduction.

Third, we can fully understand the possible evolution paths of important economic variables, grasp the main contradictions, analyze the feedback paths in detail, calculate the odds of each path, and find the transaction with the highest risk-return ratio. If such people can deeply understand their weaknesses and find effective control methods, they will not be far from "getting the Tao".

As a junior, but it's a bit excessive, domestic research on sellers is mostly concentrated in the first stage. This has nothing to do with the teacher's level, but the nature of the seller's research determines that tracking, interpretation and direct prediction are the vast majority of their work. In the second stage, I personally feel that both Gao Bo and Xiao Qing have done it, especially Xiao Qing, whose long work experience and first-class analytical ability can often give the market a different perspective, and the analytical paradigm is inclusive, and it is refreshing to often cite similar situations in the past to refute the inference under direct feedback. On the buyer's side, panda traders put forward the idea of trading flow, which is essentially a tracking feedback loop, but it is also impressive to emphasize tracking flow. The great gods in the third stage are basically in the buyer. According to the style and income, you can guess 7788. For example, Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, and other domestic predecessors, such as Ge Lao Da, did not waste their comments.

Ok, then according to the classification, there are several stages for leveling and fighting monsters: first, establish an analysis framework, which should be complete, leave no gaps, and strive to cover all aspects; Secondly, forge the fault-tolerant ability of the framework, read more books and make up for the short working life; Finally, under the guidance of the framework, put it into practice and let macro-analysis really guide investment practice.

Ok, let's work together.